Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single?family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Around the world, markets lost 5% or worse just last week. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down more than 23%; the Russell 2000 small caps are off more than 26%; Emerging markets are down almost 28%; and the Nasdaq Tech index is off more than 31%. All jokes aside , September has lived up to its reputation as a challenging month for equities. After the brutal sell-off, a relief rally was due, hence the green on your screen this morning.
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Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
A new Bank of America survey offers data on workplace benefits and their impact on employee satisfaction and retention.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
All of the value creation for investors comes from the actions they take in falling markets, not rising ones. If you’re not yet in retirement and not finished putting money into your retirement accounts, every 5% the market falls is an increased opportunity for you to buy things that will be worth much more in the future when you eventually sell them.
Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant
Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
Active inventory increased for the 2nd consecutive week, increasing 0.9% last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years: 2022: +4.9K 2021: -3.7K 2020: -5.2K 2019: -0.3K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 131% since then. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 28.7% year-over-year.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
This week, we speak with Steve Case , co-founder of America On-Line (AOL), founder of investment firm Revolution , Chair of the Smithsonian, and author of The Rise of the Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream. We discuss how he launched America Online in 1985 back when the internet was restricted to academia and the government.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
Okay don’t press the <Buy> because of this but maybe reconsider pressing the <Sell> button if you haven’t already… The AAII sentiment poll hit 60% Bears this week. History says the more pessimistic the investor class becomes, the better the prospective returns look six months out. The way I think about this is that the only thing that could make investors really bearish is a big sell-off in t.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Note: The occupancy rate will increase next week due to Hurricane Ian. From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Occupancy Reaches 70% U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed improved comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Sept. 24. Sept. 18-24, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 70.0% (-1.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $157.99 (+15.7%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $110.60 (+13.9%) *Due to the pandemic impact,
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
For years, we have heard that “there is no alternative” – TINA – to equities, and that thanks to the Fed, “Cash is trash.”. No longer. The Federal Reserve, in its belated attempt to fight inflation, has cranked up rates to the point where today, there is an alternative to stocks: Bonds. It’s been over two decades since the Fed first began panic cutting interest rates in response to such events as the 1998 Long Term Capital Management implosion, the 2000 dotcom crash (2001-03), the Septembe
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
Demand for net lease retail is softening, which is forcing a pricing reset—albeit more slowly than buyers would like.
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The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 25th.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • What is the Fed Doing? Don’t fight the Fed used to be a positive slogan. That’s not the case anymore. If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
The scorching pace of rent growth will slow, but solid fundamentals mean the outlook for multifamily investment remains bullish even amid some concerns about availability of capital, according our latest exclusive WMRE Multifamily Research Report.
Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA
In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
As an individual begins planning for retirement, one of the factors often considered is whether (and where) they might relocate to enjoy their retirement. When evaluating their potential options across the U.S., a state’s income tax rules can have a significant impact on where they might choose to live. The perception of a state as having high or low taxes could make it more or less attractive for someone choosing where to relocate, and those perceptions are often skewed by the state’
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending September 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 193,000 , a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 213,000 to 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
At Future Proof , I spoke with hosts Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau of Doubleline + The Sherman Show about investing, the future of financial conferences, and why not failing means you are not taking enough risk. It’s fun conversation, and Jeff & Sam are great hosts. TSS Episode 125: Barry Ritholtz on Financial Advisers, Clients, Market Outlooks and Building Portfolios.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
Retirement benefits are an increasingly critical weapon in the ongoing war for talent.
Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP
The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Rates Yields on cash equivalents are rising rapidly. (wealthmanagement.com) Rapidly rising real interest rates provide competition for stocks. (capitalspectator.com) Expected returns on bonds are finally attractive. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets Lumber prices are back down to pre-pandemic levels. (wsj.com) Don't fight the last war: this isn't 2008.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through August 2022 (Apartment List through September 2022). Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 24, 2022
? ?. Visual Capitalist : “The sharp rise in interest rates has sent shockwaves through markets. The S&P 500 Index has steadily declined ~20% year-to-date, and the NASDAQ Composite Index has fallen ~30%. Bond markets are also showing signs of uncertainty, with the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield curve acting as a prime example. This yield curve subtracts the return on short-term government bonds from long-term government bonds.” The post Visualizing Interest Rates Since 2020 a
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Let’s take back the narrative by talking about the passionate people who help clients achieve their financial and life goals every day.
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Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
Podcasts Brett McKay talks with Nick Maggiulli about his book "Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth." (artofmanliness.com) Six questions you should ask your financial advisor, including 'If something happens to you, who will take over my account?' (peterlazaroff.com) Housing There is a lot about our financial lives we can't control, including home prices.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2022
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.70%, down from 0.73% July. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.62% in August 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Pragmatic Capitalism
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Just a quick note here in case you noticed the new email subscription feed. Google recently killed Feedburner so we moved everything over to FollowIt.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Our third quarter virtual forum examined trends in multifamily, grocery-anchored retail and BTRs amid broader discussions about how CRE is dealing with rising interest rates and persistent inflation.
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Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
Markets Quality stocks have not been a defense against a bear market. (wsj.com) TIPS yields are at their highest level in a decade. (marketwatch.com) How rogue waves help explain market disasters. (bestinterest.blog) Strategy The bear case is obvious. What's the bull case? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why you should be happier investing today than a year ago.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
On Friday, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.7% for zero points and top tier scenarios. This was the highest rate in 14 years and is close to the highest rate in over 20 years (above 6.76% will be the highest since early 2002). Here is a graph showing the 30-year rate using Freddie Mac PMMS , and MND for last week. Click on graph for larger image.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
My morning train WFH reads: • The Forbes 400 2022: The Definitive Ranking of The Wealthiest Americans : In 2022 The wealthiest people in the U.S. are poorer than a year ago—and the cutoff to make the list fell for the first time since the Great Recession. ( Forbes ). • Sympathy for the Dimon : He’s dealing with an important shortage: Balance Sheet. ( Financial Times ) see also The Reinvention of Goldman Sachs : what has David Solomon achieved?
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
The move establishes EP Wealth's presence on the East Coast, and marks milestone in the firm's planned national expansion.
Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry
Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.
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