Calculated Risk
MAY 13, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the February bottom, and almost above the maximum for inventory last year! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 10th, inventory was at 568 thousand (7-day average), compared to 560 thousand the prior week.
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
Stich, who left digital custodian Entrustody in January, joins MarketCounsel this week as executive managing director and will take over a lot of the operational responsibilities from President and CEO Brian Hamburger.
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The Big Picture
MAY 16, 2024
The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma
Abnormal Returns
MAY 13, 2024
Netflix Don't be surprised if Netflix ($NFLX) starts airing NFL games. (spyglass.org) How Netflix ($NFLX) became the future of television. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) BREIT How has BREIT shrugged off the downturn in commercial real estate? (insights.finominal.com) Why private real estate may not belong in a structure like BREIT. (citywire.com) Fund management Why closed-end funds can trade above NAV for extended periods of time.
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Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i
Calculated Risk
MAY 13, 2024
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.
Wealth Management
MAY 14, 2024
Does a higher cash rate tide lift, hurt or have no significant impact on all asset returns?
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 13, 2024
Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Naomi Win about why we hate uncertainty so much. (standarddeviationspod.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Emily Koochel about combining technology and financial psychology. (podcasts.apple.com) The biz What Goldman Sachs ($GS) hopes to achieve in the RIA custody business. (barrons.com) Why Focus decided to merge Buckingham Strategic Wealth and The Colony Group.
Calculated Risk
MAY 15, 2024
Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.9% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April2024.
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
Speakers at Wealth Management EDGE at The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla., discuss how investing strategies, including SMAs and how inflation and the Fed are impacting investing.
Nerd's Eye View
MAY 14, 2024
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 385th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Danielle Howard. Danielle is the owner of Wealth By Design, a hybrid advisory firm based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, that oversees about $35 million in assets under advisement for 35 client households. What's unique about Danielle, though, is how she has created a process she calls "Financial Fingerprints To Footprints ", where she helps clients who are struggling to implem
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Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste
Abnormal Returns
MAY 15, 2024
Markets You don't need ZIRP for crazy stuff to happen in the stock market. (sherwood.news) Timing the meme stock mania is tough. (etf.com) Google AI-powered search disconnects us from the web. (platformer.news) How can Google assure us that AI-powered search isn't hallucinating? (theatlantic.com) How will AI search affect Google's advertising business?
Calculated Risk
MAY 14, 2024
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion.
Wealth Management
MAY 17, 2024
The introduction of bitcoin ETFs is fueling increased advisor engagement with digital assets, according to a Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals survey.
Nerd's Eye View
MAY 17, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study indicates that while overall social media engagement for financial services companies was down in 2023 compared to the previous year, firms boosted their engagement through posts that were entirely original content (rather than sharing third-party content), spoke to the firm's or advisor's principles (with posts responding to current news topics lagging), an
Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 12, 2024
Top clicks this week We are in the midst of a historic bond bear market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why TIPS are more attractive than nominal bonds at this point. (morningstar.com) Charlie Munger was constantly learning and "unlearning." (davisfunds.com) Stocks have stopped going up. (sherwood.news) Don't take your investing advice from TikTok. (ritholtz.com) The number of single-stock ETFs is growing.
Calculated Risk
MAY 13, 2024
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow With essentially nothing on the event calendar to start the new week, it was fair to expect a continuation of the same sideways drift that characterized last week. It's not the future can ever be predicted when it comes to markets, but we can say the flat trajectory is the least surprising outcome for Monday.
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
A focus on behavioral science and emotional intelligence will be key for advisors who wish to remain relevant in the coming years.
The Big Picture
MAY 17, 2024
This week, we speak with Savita Subramanian , head of US Equity and Quantitative strategy at Bank of America. She also leads the firm’s environmental, social and governance research. She has been a ranked analyst in the Institutional Investor survey for the last eleven years. Prior to joining the firm in 2001, Subramanian was an analyst at Scudder Kemper Investments in New York and San Francisco.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 12, 2024
Markets No news is good news for the stock market. (tker.co) The stock market has gone nowhere the past 10 weeks. (allstarcharts.com) What Wall Street jargon really means. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is now taking AI seriously. (nytimes.com) Adobe ($ADBE) is walking a fine line when it comes to AI. (theatlantic.com) Funds Mutual funds just keep closing.
Calculated Risk
MAY 16, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q1 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase Slightly in the First Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.94 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
Wealth Management
MAY 14, 2024
Updated throughout Wealth Management EDGE, this live blog is focused on WealthStack.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MAY 14, 2024
A lot of investors have abandoned international diversification (or at least strongly considered it) in recent years. I understand why this is happening. The U.S. stock market has destroyed all comers ever since the Great Financial Crisis ended. Since 2009, a total U.S. stock market index fund is up more than 660% while a total international index fund is up more like 180%.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 17, 2024
Markets Utility stocks are having a moment. (barrons.com) Bonds seem to have bottomed. (allstarcharts.com) Strategy Big round numbers don't matter unless you hold on. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) There are two approaches to investing. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) It's easy to forget the pain of volatility. (wggtb.substack.com) Venture capital Figma shareholders are getting an opportunity to sell stock, post-Adobe deal.
Calculated Risk
MAY 16, 2024
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.0% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
Numerous speakers at Wealth Management EDGE said buyers would want to see that its AUM wasn’t primarily tied to a small number of clients and that its growth wasn’t spurred mainly by the market.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MAY 17, 2024
These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 17, 2024
Business Logan Bartlett talks with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. (podcasts.apple.com) Sam Dogen talks with Emily Luk, Co-Founder and CEO of Plenty. (sites.libsyn.com) Private credit Matt Reustle talks the evolution of private credit with Armen Panossian is the co-CEO of Oaktree. (joincolossus.com) Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk about whether private credit is all that special.
Calculated Risk
MAY 16, 2024
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production was little changed in April. Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent. The index for mining fell 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities rose 2.8 percent. At 102.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in April was 0.4 percentage point lower than its year-earlier level.
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
The impact that artificial intelligence will have on wealth management drew a large crowd at the Wealth Management EDGE conference at the Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla.
Trade Brains
MAY 17, 2024
In today’s world, we’re constantly surrounded by a symphony of technology. From the quiet hum of our laptops to the dazzling display of our smartphones, these marvels rely on a hidden partnership between batteries and electronic solutions. Batteries and electronics are the unsung heroes of our modern world. Their seamless partnership is so deeply embedded in our daily lives that we often take them for granted.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
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