Sat.Nov 05, 2022 - Fri.Nov 11, 2022

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 42% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 20%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 5, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 42% above one year ago.

Sales 363
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Twitter is cigarettes

The Reformed Broker

A lot of reporters and public intellectuals were writing their obituaries for Twitter this weekend. First, we saw the revolt of the Blue Checkmarks. Then, the first inklings of an advertiser exodus. The timing of all this – on the eve of a midterm election that will determine whether or not Americans actually care about democracy – could not have been more ominous.

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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?

The Big Picture

My views on inflation continue to evolve: I was correct in identifying inflation during the mid-2000s; during the post-crash 2010s I remained appropriately skeptical about rising prices. The price dynamic during and after the pandemic appeared to be troublesome but my expectations were that inflation would be resolved relatively quickly as supply chains reopened and life returned to normal. “ Transitory ” turned out to be too optimistic, and I was wrong in my expectations for a faster decline in

Economics 335
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Tech-Enabled RIA Savvy Wealth Raises $11M From Venture Capitalists

Wealth Management

It represents one recent example of venture capital’s bet on the human side of wealth management.

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How to Streamline Payment Applications & Lien Waivers Through Innovative Construction Technology

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

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Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through November 8th. Lumber was at $447 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 33% from $663 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.

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Huge Tech Layoffs Begin, More Coming, Who's On the Chopping Block?

Mish Talk

Twitter Axe Last Friday, Elon Musk cut about half of the company’s work force. That's approximately 3,700 jobs. Many employees did not know until they saw their corporate access blocked. I saw some Tweets in which managers did not even know which of their subordinates were axed. The managers sent emails to their subordinates asking if they still had access.

Planning 328

More Trending

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Multifamily Investors Fight Rising Rates by Pursuing Properties with Assumable Debt

Wealth Management

By assuming existing loans, investors can mitigate the risk from rising interest rates and ultimately underwrite a greater leveraged return, market participants say.

Marketing 312
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Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Prices Down 10.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Smaller Decline in October Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.2% in October from September. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 200.0 and is now down 10.6% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in October was a decline of 2.1% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3% year over year. emphasis added Click on graph for larger im

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The Crypto Space Plunges Second Day, The Bottom Was Not In for Bitcoin

Mish Talk

Image from Investing.com yellow highlights and comments are mine. Market Still Reeling From Collapse of FTX Yesterday I noted Crypto Crash Is Led by a Whopping 88 Percent Plunge in FTX Here is the chart I posted yesterday. Today's chart will follow. FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. Valuation Plunge The 44 percent rally was due to the announcement of a deal with Binance.

Valuation 306
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MiB: Edward Chancellor on the Real Story of Interest 

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with financial historian Edward Chancellor. He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and an occasional contributor to the Wall Street Journal and MoneyWeek. In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting. Chancellor is the author of “ Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation.” His new book “ The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest ” is a nominee for FT’s 2022 Business Book of the Year.

Valuation 307
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You upgrade everything else. Why not your close process?

You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.

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Job Descriptions Aren’t Just For the Hiring Process

Wealth Management

They can lay out functional responsibilities and expectations for everyone in an organization.

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MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022"

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.45 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

Numbers 355
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Personal finance links: career shifts

Abnormal Returns

Career shifts Former Peloton ($PTON) CEO John Foley is getting into the rug business. (wsj.com) UBS' Chief Risk Officer is becoming a photographer. (ft.com) Investing Rich people don't typically get rich on alternative investments. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ten tips for surviving a bear market including 'You’re not limited to one rebalance.' (wealthfoundme.com) Bear markets affect different classes of investors in different ways.

Math 278
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This Week On TRB

The Reformed Broker

Just wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who made a donation to our Long Island Cares food drive for Thanksgiving. The money really goes a long way, we’re going to be making a big difference in the lives of people who need help this holiday season. We shattered the goal dollar-wise and I’m hoping to see a few hundred donated meals this weekend at our drop.

Food 278
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Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

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10 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Nov. 10, 2022)

Wealth Management

Multifamily Dive reports on a new lawsuit alleging RealPage, GreyStar and other managers artificially inflated the rents on student housing projects. CRE pros are using the new transparency pay law in New York City to gauge their current compensation levels, according to Bisnow. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in October; Core CPI increased 0.3%

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase , with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing.

Food 353
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Adviser links: a winning model

Abnormal Returns

Podcast Michael Kitces talks with Mindy Crary, owner of Creative Money, about making it clear about fiduciary marketing. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Kurt Brown, CEO and CIO, of TownSquare Capital. (standarddeviationspod.com) Compliance Jason Zweig, "In 30 years of writing about the financial-advice industry, I never learned that advisers can provide less-comprehensive disclosures than stockbrokers.

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Big Moves: Bears & Bottoms

The Big Picture

Yesterday’s explosive move higher was exactly what I was referring to last month in Groping for a Bottom , when I suggested the risks were asymmetrical in : “The risk here feels asymmetric : The downside appears to me as a potential grind lower — the Fed overtightens, then keeps over-tightening; maybe earnings miss badly; That mild recession we have been discussing — what if it turns out to be much worse than expected?

Economy 273
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How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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Empathy Can Be A Differentiator for Advisors

Wealth Management

Clients don’t want to be sold to, they want to be understood.

Clients 278
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 6th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

Economy 343
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Crypto Crash Is Led by a Whopping 88 Percent Plunge in FTX

Mish Talk

FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. What's Going On? The Wall Street Journal reports Crypto Exchange Binance to Acquire Rival FTX Cryptocurrency exchange FTX, just months removed from looking like a shining survivor in a struggling industry, succumbed Tuesday to a sudden liquidity crunch of its own and was taken over by rival Binance.

Valuation 247
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of BeanBox coffee, grab a seat on the settee, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Jony Ive on Life After Apple : The mastermind behind Apple’s most iconic products reveals how his design philosophy guides collaborations at his creative collective, LoveFrom. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Bitcoin mining in the crypto crash — the mining companies’ creative accounting : Bitcoin miners used to be ruthless economic agents, in it for the money.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Publicly-Traded REITs Posted Gains and Snapped a Losing Streak in October

Wealth Management

After three straight months of declines, the FTSE All Equity REIT rose more than 3 percent for the month of October.

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in October

Calculated Risk

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2. During the month, the DMI continued its steady ascent, with the commercial component rising 13%, and the institutional component ticking up 2.9%.

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Maximizing Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) Tax Benefits With Adult Children Under Age 26

Nerd's Eye View

The passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2014 introduced many changes to the healthcare landscape in the United States. One of these changes was the ability for children to remain on their parents’ health insurance plan until they reach age 26. In addition to having access to health insurance at a lower cost than they might have on their own, this measure also creates a potentially lucrative planning opportunity for young adults who can be covered by a parent’s High-Deductible Healt

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The state of the economy on Election Day, explained in 6 numbers : Rising prices have weighed heavily on the minds of voters who will soon determine the outcome of elections across the country. ( Vox ). • Are TIPS a Bargain? They are, but with an asterisk. ( Morningstar ) see also The Best Places to Get Income in the Bond Market Now : A lot of investors are abandoning the battered fixed-income market.

Nonprofit 273
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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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10 Ways to Elevate Your Google Business Profile

Wealth Management

More and more affluent investors are starting their search for an advisor online.

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Housing November 7th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased Slightly Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining sharply at this time of year ): 2022: -2.2K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -13.0K 2020: -13.4K 2019: -20.7K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 138% since then.

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Wednesday links: explaining your investment process

Abnormal Returns

Markets If nothing else, the Fed is causing investors pain. (howiesarchive.com) The risk/reward equation for bonds has done a 180. (pragcap.com) FTX How FTX unraveled. (thediff.co) The Binance deal for FTX is not a foregone conclusion. (coindesk.com) The end to the FTX story has not yet been written. (amycastor.com) VCs are going to get crushed by the FTX news.

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Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors

The Big Picture

This MoneyShow episode is now out from behind the paywall. Previously : Biggest Mistakes of UHNW Investors (October 25, 2021). The post Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors appeared first on The Big Picture.

Taxes 271
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The New Way Remote Finance Teams Are Protecting Accuracy And Building Resilience In A Cyber-Threatened World

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.