Nerd's Eye View

JULY 10, 2023

As owners of financial planning firms approach retirement, some may decide to sell to an external buyer, while others may plan for an internal succession. Sometimes, this succession plan can include the owner's child, providing an opportunity to keep the business in the family. At the same time, the business strategies that worked for the original owner might not be suitable or as successful for their successor, which can force the 2nd-generation owner to take a different path to ensure the firm

Financial Planning

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2023

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 7, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Independence Day.

Economy

Wealth Management

JULY 10, 2023

Slower June job growth is cooling the war for talent.

Planning

The Big Picture

JULY 8, 2023

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Physics of Kaizen: Why Somebody Should Get Credit for Fixing Problems That Never Happened : Toyota’s culture of Kaizen: continuous improvement. It is an obvious statement: companies should be continually improving. Companies that are able to successfully adopt a culture and practice of Kaizen have the ability to establish a dominant position in their market. ( Taylor P

Retail

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Accounting

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 14, 2023

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that while the new social media app Threads, designed to compete with Twitter, has surpassed 100 million users in its first week alone, its potential utility for advisors remains unclear and has raised compliance concerns for advisors whose social media archiving tools do not yet cover the new app.

Financial Planner

Calculated Risk

JULY 11, 2023

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for April. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Drops to the Lowest Rate in 11 Years in May CoreLogic®. today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for May 2023.

Numbers

The Big Picture

JULY 14, 2023

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank notes the pattern of gradual downgrades before earnings season begins is back to normal. As the rest of the quarterly earnings roll out, we should expect earnings to improve as we roll deeper into earnings season and as “later estimate beats” come in. This quarterly earnings pattern is shown above in the chart from his colleague Binky Chadha.

Banking

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 13, 2023

Establishing successful client relationships as a financial advisor relies on good communication skills not just to present information persuasively and with confidence, but also to establish client rapport that allows meaningful and engaging relationships to be built. For many who are new to the financial planning profession and who have no experience working with clients, participating in client meetings can trigger feelings of anxiety, especially for those who share the common fear of public

Clients

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2023

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Decline in June Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 4.2% in June from May. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 215.1, down 10.3% from a year ago. “ The 4.2% drop is among the largest declines in MUVVI history and the largest decline since the start of the pandemic in April 2020 when the index plunged 11.4%,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic

Consulting

Wealth Management

JULY 11, 2023

David Geake solicited an elderly couple to pledge securities as collateral for a bank loan to support a startup the rep had invested in, but the couple allegedly lost their money when the company failed.

Startup

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

Budgeting

The Big Picture

JULY 13, 2023

The Consumer Price Index was up 3% year over year in June, as reported by BLS yesterday. The FRED chart above shows the near round trip from the prior decade’s range of 0-2% up to the 9% peak, and now back down to 3%. Over the past year, I have been writing a lot about inflation — what people get wrong about it, why the FOMC is always late to the party, and what the various causes of inflation — real, modeled, and imagined — actually are.

Economy

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. (bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Finance Is the worst over for the venture capital market? (axios.com) Some PE firms are looking to decarbonize companies to generate returns. (institutionalinvestor.com) Policy Why migrants are fleeing Florida.

Financial Advising

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2023

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from analyst Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 8, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5%. A year into weekly new listing declines, active inventory levels have started to mirror the slow down in listing activity.

Sales

Wealth Management

JULY 10, 2023

Multifamily completions are on track for their strongest year since the 1980s, according to data from CoStar Analytics. CNN Business looks at whether the boom in generative AI could help turn around San Franciso’s real estate fortunes. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to kick off the new week.

Investing

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

Accounting

The Big Picture

JULY 13, 2023

My morning train reads: • Stocks Took an 18-Month Round Trip From Tech Bear to AI Bull : The same handful of megacap names that led the market down have been powering the latest surge. ( Businessweek ) • Inflation Cools Sharply in June, Good News for Consumers and the Fed : The Consumer Price Index climbed far more slowly in June, a relief for shoppers and a hopeful — though inconclusive — sign that America might pull off a “soft landing.” ( New York Times ) see also Inflation drops to lowest le

Portfolio Management

Abnormal Returns

JULY 13, 2023

Books An excerpt from “Random Acts of Medicine: The Hidden Forces That Sway Doctors, Impact Patients, and Shape Our Health” by Anupam B. Jena and Christopher Worsham. (wsj.com) An excerpt from “Nobody’s Fool: Why We Get Taken In and What We Can Do About It” by Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris. (wsj.com) Global China may have reached its demographic peak, but that does not mean its influence is waning.

Medicine

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2023

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had been mentioning when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This has fallen sharply and is now up 3.2% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through June 2023. Services were up 5.7% YoY as of June 2023, down from 6.3% YoY in May.

Food

Wealth Management

JULY 10, 2023

Valuable artworks require specialized attention to ensure that they're safely transferred to the next generation.

Planning

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

Management

The Big Picture

JULY 12, 2023

Source: Reventure Let’s get to the caveats up front: Re:Ventures has been pretty bearish on housing the past few years, even forecasting a crash; their landing page claims “ The US Housing Market is in a record Bubble in 2023 ,” and this post “ 90% Chance: RECESSION in 2022? ” has not panned out and stands inapposite of my views.

Sales

Abnormal Returns

JULY 10, 2023

Podcasts Meb Faber talks with Blake Street is a Founding Partner and CIO of Warren Street Wealth Advisors. (mebfaber.com) Ashby Daniels talks with Hannah Moore about "doing" financial planning. (wiredplanning.com) Laurence Kotklikoff talks with David Blanchett about problems with conventional financial planning tools. (larrykotlikoff.substack.com) The biz Goldman Sachs ($GS) has snagged another custodian client, NewEdge Wealth.

Compliance

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2023

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 7th, inventory was at 465 thousand (7-day average), compared to 466 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 5.3%. And inventory is up 14.7% from the seasonal bottom 12 weeks ago.

Wealth Management

JULY 10, 2023

Advisors Asset Management's CIO Cliff Corso provides his investment outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Portfolio

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The Big Picture

JULY 12, 2023

My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us : Investors who think that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed should be troubled by an alternative measure of price increases. Measure U.S. price changes the way Europe does, and inflation was already there in May. Measure them as the U.S. does, and on Wednesday new figures are predicted by economists to show core inflation far higher, at 5% for June. ( Wall Street Journal ) • T

Insurance

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 11, 2023

Welcome back to the 341st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Thor McIlrath. Thor is the Owner of McIlrath & Eck, an independent RIA based in Arlington, Washington, that oversees more than $610 million in assets under management for 970 client households. What's unique about Thor, though, is how he has structured his firm so that clients rotate through different advisors at the firm each time they come in for a meeting, eschewing the traditional

Clients

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July I reviewed home inventory and sales. Here is some data from the recently released FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2023.

Marketing

Wealth Management

JULY 11, 2023

Raymond James will pay more than $12 million to settle charges of 'unreasonable commissions' on transactions, according to state regulators.

Commission

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Clients

The Big Picture

JULY 14, 2023

My end-of-week morning offsite reads: • Google’s AI Blunders Rival Xerox’s PC Mistakes : The “T” technology behind ChatGPT was devised at Google but languished there. Sound familiar? ( Bloomberg ) • Wall Street’s Recession Warning Is Flashing. Some Wonder if It’s Wrong. The yield curve has been suggesting since last year that the economy was headed for a slump. ( New York Times ) see also Dude, Where’s My Recession?

Portfolio Management

Abnormal Returns

JULY 11, 2023

Global The case for international diversification still stands, recency bias aside. (kitces.com) There's no reason to gorge on emerging market equities. (morningstar.com) Overnight anomaly Trading the overnight effect is harder than it looks. (twoquants.substack.com) Why the overnight anomaly is hard to exploit. (ft.com) Research Does size matter? Meh.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Month-to-month to New Record High in May A brief excerpt: National Payment to Income Ratio Increased to Near Record This was as of June 22nd when mortgage rates (according to the Freddie Mac PMMS), were at 6.67%. Rates have increased since then, and it is likely the payment-to-income ratio is now at a new record high.

Wealth Management

JULY 14, 2023

A Michigan jury deemed a handwritten document found in between Aretha’s couch cushions a valid will.

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.

Distribution