Tue.Mar 18, 2025

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"Bear Market Cumulative Returns"

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Bill Hester from Hussman Funds had a lengthy write up on diversifiers that track what he called Bear Market Cumulative Returns (BMCR). This wasn't a discussion about alternative strategies but there were a couple of fantastic charts. This is helpful for creating some understanding of tendencies of factors. One very interesting tidbit from the table is that small caps are all over the place.

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Wednesday: FOMC Statement

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). At 2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement.

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10 Biggest Ideas in “How NOT to Invest”

The Big Picture

It is March 18th! Publication day is finally here! The challenge in writing How NOT to Invest was organizing a large number of ideas, many of which were only loosely connected, into something coherent, understandable, and, most importantly, readable. It took a while of playing around with the concepts, but eventually, I hit on a structure that I found enormously useful: I organized our biggest impediments to investing success into three broad categories: Bad Ideas , Bad Numbers , and Bad Be

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Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February; Length of Time from Start to Completion Declined in 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

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How to Streamline Payment Applications & Lien Waivers Through Innovative Construction Technology

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

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When finding clients who fit is a “shoe-in”

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Anthony Castro As financial advisors, we need clients. We all face the issue of finding new clients, though, especially clients who are a good fit for us. I recently tried an idea to address this challenge that I wasnt sure would work, but I was pleasantly surprised to find that it did. For me, that idea is my sneaker raffle, which quickly opened some unexpected doors.

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Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,108,000; this is 11.4 percent above the revised January figure of 995,000.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.7% in February

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The output of manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent.

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Style guidelines for financial services firms

Investment Writing

Style guidelines for financial services firms can help you to make your written communications more consistent and thus easier to read. Why create style guidelines for your financial services firm? It can be distracting if writing styles are inconsistent within and across documents published by your firm. For example, is it “counterparty” in the first paragraph and “counter party” in paragraphs two and three?

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Where Price Meets Fundamentals: Ten Top Stocks with “Twin Momentum”

Validea

The Twin Momentum strategy combines price momentum with improving fundamentals to deliver enhanced market returns. This approach integrates traditional price analysis with fundamental evaluation to create a powerful stock selection framework. By targeting only companies in the top 20% for both price and fundamental momentum, this method focuses on truly exceptional investment candidates.

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#FASuccess Ep 429: What It Takes To Really Help (HNW) Business Owners Navigate Their Wealth With Purpose, With Ali Nasser

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 429th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Ali Nasser. Ali is the Founder of the Wealth Integration System for Entrepreneurs, an education and coaching company based in Houston, Texas, that works with entrepreneurs facing a liquidity event and trying to figure out what's next… and financial advisors who serve them.

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You upgrade everything else. Why not your close process?

You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.

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The Great Moderation is Over: Here is What Comes Next | Practical Lessons from Liz Ann Sonders

Validea

In this episode, we break down key lessons from our conversation with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, exploring timeless investment principles and market dynamics that remain relevant regardless of current market conditions. From the end of the “Great Moderation” era to practical insights about market timing and portfolio management, Liz Ann’s wisdom offers valuable perspective for investors of all levels.

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Anti-Dividend Investing: Yield Matters—But Not How You Think!

Alpha Architect

Dividends are the comfort food of investing. Who wouldnt love feeling like theyre getting a seemingly free payout just for holding onto a stock?As with all good things, there's a little moreperhaps a whole lot moreto the story. Heres why: even in a tax-free setting, selling stocks before dividend payouts can lead to abnormal returns. Anti-Dividend Investing: Yield MattersBut Not How You Think!

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Research links: your web presence

Abnormal Returns

Tune Out the Noise You can now watch the Errol Morris documentary 'Tune Out the Noise.' (youtube.com) Why DFA helped make the movie. (institutionalinvestor.com) Quant stuff Almost all quants owe a debt to the late Barr Rosenberg. (on.ft.com) Some recent academic research including 'Wikipedia Page Views and Stock Performance.' (alphainacademia.substack.com) The case against chartists.

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Why People Won’t Change Their Mind

A Wealth of Common Sense

On December 17, 1954,The Chicago Tribuneran the following headline: DOCTOR WARNS OF DISASTERS IN WORLD TUESDAY The paper interviewed Dr. Charles Laughead at the home of Dorothy Martin. Dr. Laughead informed the paper that Martin received communications “from outer space.” He told reporters these communications from outer space revealed to Martin that the world would be ravaged by a great flood that.

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Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

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Tuesday links: the future of cars

Abnormal Returns

Markets Credit spreads are not screaming recession. (ft.com) Earnings estimates are coming down. (sherwood.news) Long Europe, short US is the consensus trade. (on.ft.com) How Not to Invest Ten insights from Barry Ritholtz's new book "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth - and How to Avoid Them." (ritholtz.com) Everybody makes financial mistakes, even the most accomplished.

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NAIFA Members, Be Sure to Take Advantage of DIAM Resources From Life Happens

NAIFA Advisor Today

Once again this May Life Happens will coordinate Disability Insurance Awareness Month (DIAM), an annual campaign Life Happens created to raise consumer awareness. Now that Life Happens is a NAIFA Community, specially curated content featuring DIAM messaging is available to NAIFA members to help them connect with their clients and consumers.

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12 Investment Must Reads for This Week (March 18, 2025)

Wealth Management

Morningstar profiled the 15 funds that have lost the most value for shareholders over the past decade. Recent market volatility has perked new interest among investors and advisors in buffer ETFs. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

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Gasoline Prices Down for Fourth Straight Week

Advisor Perspectives

Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.

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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Rich Santos: An Appreciation

Wealth Management

Warren Bimblick, former group president at Informa and Penton, offers his remembrances of former publisher Rich Santos.

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The AI Race in Wealth Management is About to Speed Up

Advisor Perspectives

The wealth industry could be headed into an era of accelerated innovation, as advisory firms shift from zero to full speed ahead with artificial intelligence.

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Rise Growth-Backed Bleakley Transitions 80% of AUM to Equity Partnership

Wealth Management

Bleakley Financial Group, which became Rise Growths first RIA investment last year, has also acquired two firms with about $1 billion in assets in the first quarter of 2025.

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From Frosted Tips to Fractional Shares: How Young Investors Have Evolved in 25 Years

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

As part of Market Outlook 2025, Evan Waltz, Support Financial Advisor at Walkner Condon, lays out the changes that have impacted Gen Z investment behavior, which includes social media, emerging technologies and ESG trends. Learn how young investors are shaping the future of finance!

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How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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AI Ready to Free Up As Many as 19 Hours a Week for Advisors

Wealth Management

The CEOs of Savvy and startup FINNY AI told advisors at an industry conference that marketing, administrative tasks and tailored client communication are all rife for AI disruption.

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Margin Debt Falls for First Time in Six Months in February

Advisor Perspectives

FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through February. The latest debt level is at $918.144 billion, just below its record high from January. Margin debt was down 2.0% month-over-month (MoM) and up 23.6% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was down 2.5% MoM and up 20.2% YoY.

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What’s Trending With Collectibles?

Wealth Management

Considerations for different industries and how they affect legal documentation.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Industrial Production Hits Record High in February

Advisor Perspectives

Industrial production jumped 0.75% in February to a new record high, surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 1.4%.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Merit Acquires $1.6B Idaho-based RIA with Affiliate ESOP

Wealth Management

Merits Financial Advisors' second deal of 2025 is for Idaho-based Sanctuary Wealth Management and its affiliate that brings employee stock ownership plan services.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Advisor Advocates Are 'Optimistic' Regulators Will Delay AML Rule

Wealth Management

The rule may face opposition from Republican leaders at the SEC who could view it as an example of regulators overreach, according to one industry compliance leader.

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Carroll Golden Honored with ILTCI’s Recognition Award

NAIFA Advisor Today

Carroll Golden, Executive Director of NAIFAs Centers of Excellence, was honored with the ILTCIs Recognition Award on Monday, March 10th. This prestigious award highlights her significant contributions to the long-term care insurance (LTCI) industry and her commitment to advancing LTC planning.

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The New Way Remote Finance Teams Are Protecting Accuracy And Building Resilience In A Cyber-Threatened World

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.