Wed.May 03, 2023

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Press Pause

The Big Picture

At least they told us what they were going to do. As much as critics of the Federal Reserve have been up in arms over the fastest rate hiking cycle in modern history, no one can claim it to be a surprise. Jerome Powell & Co. have continually warned that they are aggressively fighting inflation with a 5% target. They said it in Fed minutes, they said it in pressers, they said it in speeches; we just took them figuratively, not literally.

Economy 353
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FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25 bp; Pause in June Likely

Calculated Risk

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

Economics 324
Insiders

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The Inverse Grid: Is Your Firm Providing Enough Value?

Wealth Management

When considering the products and services a firm provides in exchange for the revenue they keep, is it really a good value?

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Banking 314
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Is Blood Really Thicker Than Water?

Wealth Management

What happens if your client wants to leave assets to friends rather than relatives?

Assets 278
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HVS: Q1 2023 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates; Rental Vacancy Rates Increased Sharply

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2023. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

Numbers 310

More Trending

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning train reads: • This company adopted AI. Here’s what happened to its human workers : Economists found AI caused a group of workers to become much more productive. Backed by AI, these workers were able to accomplish much more in less time, with greater customer satisfaction to boot. At the same time, however, the study also shines a spotlight on just how powerful AI is, how disruptive it might be, and suggests that this new, astonishing technology could have economic effe

License 274
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New IRS Commissioner Addresses Concerns About Audit Rates

Wealth Management

Daniel Werfel says there’s no target on small businesses.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 243 thousand initial claims, up from 230 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $63.8 billion.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 58: May 3, 2023

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussions about the latest news in the RPA industry.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased in March; Prices Up 1.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased in March; Prices Up 1.0% YoY A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the Black Knight HPI. The index is still up 1.0% year-over-year and will likely turn negative YoY soon. • Nationally, home prices rose by 0.45% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, slightly stronger than the revised 0.43% rise in the prior month • On a non-adjusted basis, home prices were up 1.38% in March, roughly on par

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Family’s Use of CRATs To Save Taxes Backfires

Wealth Management

Payments from charitable remainder annuity trust-funded contracts taxed as ordinary income.

Taxes 264
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Heavy Truck Sales Up Sharply Year-over-year in April

Calculated Risk

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for April this morning. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 246
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SVB Private’s CIO Opts Not to Join First Citizens

Wealth Management

In a LinkedIn post, Shannon Saccocia, who served as SVB Private's chief investment officer after the bank acquired Boston Private, said that it was time for her to “move on.

Banking 263
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Foster More Productive Client Meetings By Mitigating Interruptions Based On (Conversational) ‘Intensity Level’

Nerd's Eye View

While interruptions within conversations occur frequently, the type of interruption can affect the content and flow of the dialogue that follows. For instance, if an interlocutor interrupts a speaker with a totally unrelated question or line of thought, the interruption not only has the potential to frustrate the speaker but can also cause them to lose their train of thought.

Clients 245
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Is the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Benchmark Survey Mandatory?

Wealth Management

Who and what’s subject to the reporting requirements?

Economics 256
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ADP: Private Employment Increased 296,000 in April

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 296,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 6.7% Private sector employment increased by 296,000 jobs in April and annual pay was up 6.7 percent year-over-year, according to the April ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

Economy 233
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ETFs with the Worst Three-Year Returns

Wealth Management

Cannabis ETFs were among those posting the worst returns over the last three years.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Wednesday links: calling while you can

Abnormal Returns

Markets There is no one-for-one relationship between inflation, interest rates and the stock market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) doesn't pay a dividend, but owns plenty of stocks that do. (npr.org) Can the stock market rally if financials are looking ugly? (allstarcharts.com) Apple Despite recent efforts, Apple ($AAPL) is still heavily reliant on China.

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Big Hedge Funds Face New 72-Hour Deadline to Report Losses

Wealth Management

The new SEC rules significantly increase oversight of the biggest hedge funds and private equity firms.

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ISM® Services Index Increases to 51.9% in April

Calculated Risk

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 51.9%, up from 51.2% last month. The employment index decreased to 50.8%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 51.9% April 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.9 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executive

Economics 100
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Taxing Wealthy Dynasties Seen Backfiring in States Like New York

Wealth Management

Billionaires are more motivated to move out of places with estate taxes as they get older, a new study finds.

Taxes 237
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Up Slightly from Last Week

Advisor Perspectives

Bitcoin is up slightly from last week, hovering near $29,000, and is up around 70% year-to-date. Here's the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 5/2.

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Bad Sign for First Republic: The Chase Branches Next Door

Wealth Management

Some First Republic branches will be converted into wealth centers.

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Vehicle Sales Per Capita as of April 2023

Advisor Perspectives

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 45 years later, it is down 40.8% from that peak.

Sales 90
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Morgan Stanley Is Sued by Outside Recruiter Alleging Race Bias

Wealth Management

Anthony Fletcher's lawsuit claims that Morgan Stanley hired his candidates without his knowledge, depriving him of commissions.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Chart of the Week – We’ve got Shrinkage (In Banks)

Discipline Funds

We’ve got shrinkage. In banks. One of the interesting secular trends that has been in place for 30+ years is bank shrinkage. The US banking system has consolidated from 14,000+ entities in the late 1970s to just over 4,000 entities today. So the collapse of small banks is not surprising. But what’s happening today is accelerating the process.

Banking 87
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RPA Edge: Jim Smith on How the Retirement Income Industry is Evolving

Wealth Management

Listen in as Fred Barstein and Morningstar Investment Management LLC’s Jim Smith provide their quick take on how the retirement income industry is evolving to offer better services at the participant and plan levels.

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: PacWest stock plummets more than 50% after report of potential sale, other bank stocks join in decline

MarketWatch

PacWest Bancorp PACW shares dove more than 50% in after-hours trading Wednesday, after a report that the company’s executives are looking at a possible sale. The regional bank’s shares have been diving this week after the collapse and sale of another regional bank in the western U.S., First Republic Bank, which was sold to JP Morgan Chase & Co.JPM Monday in a deal that netted shareholders nothing.

Banking 76
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The Fed Raises US Rates by a Quarter Point, Signaling Possible Pause

Wealth Management

The increase lifted the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 5% to 5.25%, the highest level since 2007, up from nearly zero early last year.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.