Fri.Nov 04, 2022

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October Employment Report: 261 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October , and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000.

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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions. It is difficult to reconcile Fed rhetoric with the actual price of Goods. One can reach only so many conclusions: Perhaps the Fed is right and everybody else is wrong.

Economy 352
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Comments on October Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 35 thousand jobs in October. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.1 million jobs since February 2020.

Retail 354
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The Three-Legged Retirement Stool: Fact or Fiction?

Wealth Management

Should Social Security play a larger role in providing retirement income than it does today?

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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AAR: October Rail Carloads Up Slightly Year-over-year, Intermodal Down

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. October is usually a top month for carloads, and that’s the case in 2022. Total originated U.S. carloads averaged 238,019 per week in October 2022, the most since May 2021 and up 0.5% over October 2021. U.S. intermodal volume fell 1.4%. its 14th decline in the past 15 months. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Retail 286
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Euro 1973 BMW 3.0CSi

The Big Picture

BMW’s image as the “ultimate driving machine” was built atop the sportiness of its high-performance coupe models. The “sharknose” E9 was BMW’s elegant flagship coupe sold in the US from 1968-1975. The E9 used an electronic fuel injection system that was state-of-the-art technology back then (most cars were still using carburetors). 200 HP made the 3.0 CSi really fast (at least for those days).

More Trending

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Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020 A brief excerpt: Here is a graph comparing the year-over-year change in the Realtor.com active monthly data to the inventory data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The dashed line is Realtor.com’s estimate of total inventory including pendings. t appears the NAR includes some pending sales in their inventory data, and that accounts for the divergenc

Sales 246
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401(k) Real Chat: Shlomo Benartzi

Wealth Management

Retirement industry thought leaders answer three probing questions on critical issues, providing an open, honest and candid dialogue.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Nov 5-6)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that as part of the ongoing integration between the merged companies, Charles Schwab plans to transition advisors currently on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab’s platform over Labor Day weekend 2023.

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How to Focus Your Marketing Efforts

Wealth Management

As conference season comes to a close, avoid paralysis by analysis by taking concrete action on marketing your practice.

Marketing 264
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Early Q4 GDP Tracking and Upward Revisions to Q3 GDP

Calculated Risk

A wide range of Q4 estimates, from 0.7% to 3.6%. It looks like Q3 GDP will be revised up in the second release. From BofA: [ 1.0% in Q4 ] Overall, the data since our last weekly publication when the BEA’s advance estimate of US 3Q GDP growth was realeased, moved up our 3Q GDP tracking estimate from 2.6% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to 3.1% q/q saar [Nov 4th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following today’s data, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +0.7%

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Wall Street Bonuses Duck NYC Pay Law Aimed at Fixing Wage Gaps

Wealth Management

New York City’s new pay-transparency law has a blind spot: Wall Street bonuses.

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Why Advisors (and Family Offices) Should Consider Creating their Own ETFs

Alpha Architect

Independent RIA firms seek to do what is "right" for the client, which often boils down to minimizing fees and taxes and increasing transparency/education (i.e., ETFs). But the "right" solution for an advisor's clients might not be available 'off-the-shelf' in the ETF market, or the advisor can't use ETFs because they are stuck "managing around" legacy portfolios and tax problems.

Taxes 133
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Credit Suisse to Extend Global Job Cuts to Wealth Next Week

Wealth Management

The bank said it started 2,700 job cuts in the fourth quarter and is aiming to reduce about 9,000 positions by 2025.

Banking 257
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Friday links: principles and beliefs

Abnormal Returns

Strategy When should you change your asset allocation? Not all that often. (awealthofcommonsense.com) For the first time in a decade, TIPS finally look attractive. (morningstar.com) Old school Would Ben Graham buy Meta ($META) stock? (rationalwalk.com) 12 lessons from Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett on money and life including 'Volatility is not risk.

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The Ivy League Endowment Model Can Work for Your Clients

Wealth Management

New platforms can help extend alts access to a broader group of investors without exposing them to greater risks.

Clients 243
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No pivot!

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Carleton English, Scott Krisiloff, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the latest from Powell and the Fed, earnings season, the wisdom of Warren Buffett, junk bonds, 2008 vs today, nuclear fusion, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Marketing 130
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Women Globally Retire With a Quarter Less Wealth Than Men

Wealth Management

The gap is highest among the most-skilled and lowest among front-line workers, study finds.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Finding Progress in a Sea of Negativity

A Wealth of Common Sense

There is a lot of negativity in the world these days and I’m not just talking about bear markets, recessions and inflation. Negativity is much easier to latch onto because it fits in a headline or tweet or 30-second news clip. Progress doesn’t fit in a headline because it takes time to play out. The world is far from perfect these days but things really are getting better.

Marketing 114
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How To Become Financially Stable In 9 Steps

Clever Girl Finance

Have you ever met someone who doesn’t seem worried about money ? They might always have extra cash for the things they want, or, they always have the money to pay their bills in full — even the unexpected ones. This person is likely financially stable. What does being financially stable mean? It can look a little different to everyone, but someone who’s financially stable usually doesn’t have to worry about making ends meet each month.

Budgeting 104
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How Inflation Impacts Retirement Income Planning

Covisum

We are in a considerably higher inflation environment than we've seen in decades. While the Federal Reserve initially said the inflation is transitory, the high inflation has spanned more than two years. Over the past several months, high inflation has been a top concern for many people , especially those nearing retirement. Financial advisors are uniquely qualified to address these concerns and help clients plan and stress test for inflation.

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SEO For Advisors: How To Leverage Keywords To Climb The Ranks

Advisor Websites

The higher that your website ranks on search engines, the higher your possibility is of more website visitors, and ultimately more visitors converting into leads. However, this isn't always the case. Not all website traffic is valuable. So how do you get more of the right people, your target audience, to your website in the first place? Well first, you need to know who your target audience is.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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The Truth About Alternative Investments

Mullooly Asset Management

In this week’s podcast, the guys cover alternative investments and peel back the curtain on these difficult to understand investment products. When the market is volatile, like it has been in 2022, these product sales always skyrocket. And the promise of safety allures investors into not fully understanding what it is they are putting their […] In this week’s podcast, the guys cover alternative investments and peel back the curtain on these difficult to understand investment products

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Is Financial Planning Different for Dual-Income Families?

WiserAdvisor

The more, the merrier is the general consensus in most financial matters. The higher your income, the better lifestyle you can afford. Living in a household with two or more incomes is a great advantage. Your expenses get divided, your debts are lessened, and your assets are increased. In addition to this, you can save more and plan for more significant purchases with greater ease.

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Twitter and Risk

Norman Marks

The purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk is being followed by mass layoffs. For me and probably others, the potential changes (including the abandonment of the platform by many of my followers) is likely to present a challenge. Its one of the ways I receive and then share information. But for many employees of Twitter, […].

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NAIFA Partner Fairway Independent Mortgage Named #1 Workplace in the U.S.

NAIFA Advisor Today

NAIFA is proud to share that long-time partner and champion Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation was named #1 in the 2022 Top Workplaces USA, in an award issued by Energage. Fairway also took the top spot in 2021 as the top-ranked winner for a company with over 2,500 employees.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Frothy Housing Market Is Different This Time, Says Paulson

Validea

When the hedge fund he founded shorted over $25 billion mortgage securities in the early days of the 2008 financial crisis, John Paulson became a billionaire. Now, he’s looking at “another frothy house market” with a possible repeat of sagging home prices, but maintains that the banking system is much better-positioned to cope with it in an interview with Bloomberg.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The rise of the ‘chief remote officer’ While many firms have pivoted to hybrid or remote work in an ad-hoc way, others are creating a new role to oversee their workplace transformation. ( BBC ). • Everyone seems to hate daylight saving time. Do we even need it, and why is it so hard to get rid of?

Retail 279
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Dividends Might Become Much More Important

Validea

The possibility of being in a range-bound market for an extended period of time is unsettling and raises the question of how to rethink the importance of dividends as part of your total returns, posits an article in CityWireUSA. Many on Wall Street have been dismissive of dividends in recent years because they haven’t mattered much, especially since payouts have been depressed since the mid-1990s and buybacks have muddied the waters.

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Podcast links: inflation impacts

Abnormal Returns

Listening Amazon Prime members now get access to the entire Amazon Music catalog. (techcrunch.com) The Libby app is great for e-books and audiobooks. (theverge.com) Companies Howard Lindzon talks with Sami Issa & Maggie Love, co-founders of W3CLOUD. (howardlindzon.com) Matt Reustle talks with Sean Stannard-Stockton about the business of Home Depot ($HD).

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.