Fri.Dec 02, 2022

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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in

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2023 Toyota Prius

The Big Picture

It is amazing to think about how Toyota blew its enormous lead in Hybrid tech, failing to launch any substantial push into EVs. The chart below shows exactly how much sales have fallen for the first hybrid EV America has fallen into — and then out of love with. The Prius today badly lags the RAV4, its sister crossover, in Toyota hybrid sales. But the latest design is a handsome reboot, and should help sales pick up.

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Podcast links: telling stories with data

Abnormal Returns

The biz Podcasting ad revenue is expected to rise in 2023. (insideradio.com) Joe Rogan maintained his hold as the No. 1 podcaster on Spotify for 2022. (variety.com) The problem with Spotify ($SPOT) Wrapped. (wired.com) Anderson Cooper is working through his grief on a new podcast 'All There Is With Anderson Cooper.' (nytimes.com) Business Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Margaret O'Mara author of the book "The Code: Silicon Valley and the Remaking of America.

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November 2022: Stand Up with Pete

The Big Picture

This was a fun conversation with my buddy Pete about all the media madness these days — it was as I was recovering from C19, and while I felt fine, my voice sounds pretty gravelly. If you find that kind of thing tolerable, people seemed to really like this discussion. Lots more details here. Enjoy! The post November 2022: Stand Up with Pete appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 3-4)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with a research study suggesting that the market volatility experienced in 2022 could increase demand for financial planning services. This increased demand could be particularly acute among younger investors (who might be experiencing an inflationary environment and sustained market downturn for the first time) and those nearing retirement (who might seek professional guid

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November Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was re

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Market Cap to GDP: Buffett Valuation Indicator

Advisor Perspectives

With the Q3 GDP Second Estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 149.2%, down from 155.7% the previous quarter.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 17%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago.

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Advisor Group Tweaks Rep Pricing for 2023

Wealth Management

Advisor Group announced a series of changes to its pricing structure, including a new bundled affiliation fee and annual fee for directly held mutual fund positions.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Comments on November Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 980 thousand jobs since February 2020.

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Cetera Shutters First Allied Registration, Brand

Wealth Management

Reps for First Allied Securities, the San Diego-based independent broker/dealer that's been in business since 1994, will integrate into sister company Cetera Advisors.

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COVID Dec 2, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

NOTE: This was a holiday week, and cases and deaths reporting always declines during holiday weeks. On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data has switched to weekly. Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics Now Week Ago Goal New Cases per Week 2 303,101 306,856 ?35,000 1 Hospitalized 2 ?? 25,603 22,011 ?3,000 1 Deaths per Week 2 1,780 2,634 ?

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Return Assumptions in Retirement Income Planning Software

Covisum

Lately, there have been a lot of conversations surrounding the current market state, and many retirees are worried about their investments. One of the most challenging aspects of financial planning is setting reasonable performance expectations. Of course, no one can predict the future, but the right financial planning software can help you make wise investment decisions based on available factors.

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Finding “The One:” The Ultimate Guide to Selecting Financial Software

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

As finance and accounting practitioners, you are expected to complete daily operations as well as to manage next generation tools and resources to support a business that is growing in complexity. Having the right software can be critical in juggling and meeting those high expectations. The path to the right software, however, is paved with challenging decisions.

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UBS’s Hassan to Take Charge of Americas Digital Wealth Teams

Wealth Management

Hassan will oversee the expansion of UBS’s digitally customized banking services, the build-out of wealth management’s digital capabilities, electronic strategy and platforms, and smart technologies and advanced analytics.

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Remember These Fashion Trends of the 60s & 70s?

Integrity Financial Planning

It’s no doubt that, when it comes to fashion, the 60s and 70s carried the most vibrant, electric trends. Your generation has made the largest footprint in the world of fashion, creating iconic and stylish clothing that, even today, still resurfaces and remains just as cool. You may have already noticed the unexpected return of bell bottoms and flowing attire through your kids or grandkids.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 0.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Falls as Expected Over Thanksgiving Week Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed mixed comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Nov. 26. Nov. 20-26, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019* • Occupancy: 50.4% (-0.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$135.49 (+20.4%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$68.27 (+19.9%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measurin

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J.P. Morgan Wealth Management's New Path To 62M Chase Customers

Wealth Management

Wealth Plan, with its "Work with an advisor" icon, is now available for free on the Chase Mobile app and the bank's website.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Some Thoughts on Active vs. Passive, Bear Markets vs. Recessions, Inverted Yield Curves & Holiday Weight Gain

A Wealth of Common Sense

Some charts I came across this week along with some thoughts on each: The bear market is speeding up the move from active to passive: This trend has been in place for a while now but the bear market is accelerating things. It makes sense if you think about it in terms of a down year in the stock market where people with long-term gains are more willing to get out of a position to make a portfolio change.

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Trend Following and Relative Sentiment: Complementary Factors

Alpha Architect

Since it is likely that both the Relative Sentiment and Trend Following strategies will underperform at some points in the future, “a 50-50 combination of TF and RS might reduce the emotional volatility an investor may experience from holding only the underperforming strategy.”. <strong>Trend Following and Relative Sentiment: Complementary Factors</strong> was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Gary Gensler Says Crypto Investors Should Embrace SEC Regulation

Wealth Management

The Securities and Exchange Commission chair describes his philosophy of markets and regulation—and why he loves climbing mountains.

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CPI and PCE: Two Measures of Inflation and Fed Policy

Advisor Perspectives

The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for October, released yesterday, shows that core inflation continues to be well above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 4.98%. The October Core Consumer Price Index release is currently higher, at 6.28%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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High-Net-Worth Philanthropy Trends By The Numbers

Wealth Management

These five findings provide a benchmark for affluent philanthropists and the advisors who support them.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Mid-Week Rally

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 rallied on Wednesday after the Fed announced it may slow its rate hikes as soon as its next meeting. The index was only up one out of five days this week, but is down 14.6% YTD and is 15.1% below its record close.

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401(k) Real Talk Episode 43: December 2, 2022

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussions about the latest news in the RPA industry.

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ESG Fund Chaos Angers Investors as Greenwashing Concerns Mount

Advisor Perspectives

The asset management unit of BNP Paribas SA is stripping Europe’s top ESG designation from $16 billion worth of funds, adding to a tidal wave of reclassifications that the industry is blaming on unclear rules amid growing signs of anger from investors.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Intel Severance Package: Your Complete Guide & Action Plan

Cordant Wealth Partners

During layoffs, Intel offers severance packages or voluntary separation packages (VSP) when cost reductions are a priority. Most recently, Intel announced layoffs impacting 11% of the workforce in the fall of 2022 with a plan to cut $3 billion in costs over the next year. If you’ve been offered a severance, layoff, or voluntary separation package at Intel, this guide will cover: The key components of the package.

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The Unavoidable Crash

Advisor Perspectives

After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt.

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NAIFA Trustee Aprilyn Chavez-Geissler Featured in Upcoming DEI Webinar

NAIFA Advisor Today

On December 6, NAIFA-National Trustee and Gateway Insurance and Financial Services Vice President Aprilyn Chavez-Geissler will be a featured speaker for the webinar "Beyond Sentiment: The Business Benefits of DEI," presented by Financial Planning magazine. The webinar will discuss how recent research can help you craft a strategy for diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) that is well-defined, driven by company leaders, and connected to business outcomes.