Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Sales of farm equipment were a notable headwind to overall investment activity, and several contacts expressed concerns about the future prices of equipment given ongoing weakness in the farm economy. Capital spending and purchases of raw materials were flat or declining in most Districts.

Economics 278

Economics Economy Sales Investments 278

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

cbsnews.com) Italy Italy's economy has finally returned to its pre-pandemic peak. apolloacademy.com) Economy Case-Shiller shows a 5.0% bonddad.blogspot.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns The investment world was a different place when Josh Brown started writing. ft.com) Poland has a higher GDP per capita than Italy.

Investing 264

Investing Investments Financial Advising Retail 264

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. In “ How Not To Invest ” (coming March 18!)

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Sales 309

Sales Investments Investing Economy 309

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Cash was never meant to be a long-term investment. msn.com) Economy Still no meaningful pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. (freedomdaysolutions.com) Strategy How often do outlier 10-year forecasts turn out? ritholtz.com) Why optimism makes sense over the long run.

Investing 288

Investing Investments Startup Financial Advising 288

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

washingtonpost.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking around 3% growth. (nytimes.com) Substack Substack is adding a live video component to its newsletter service (engadget.com) Substack has become a home for fashion writers. econbrowser.com) Houses under construction continue to fall. apolloacademy.com) Why workers dislike inflation.

Investing 278

Investing Investments Financial Advising Media 278

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

awealthofcommonsense.com) Books "Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meetings" by Alex Morris is a good refresher course. propublica.org) Economy Retail sales are decelerating. calculatedriskblog.com) More signs the economy is weakening.

Media 195

Media Economy Retail Management 195

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

I chatted with Jean Chatzky of Your Money Map about HNTI and some general investing concepts. Many, if not most, investing books aim to teach people how TO invest. Your focus is giving readers advice on how NOT to invest. The book is broken down into four categories of things not to do when youre investing.

Retirement 189

Retirement Investing Investments Numbers 189

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I prefer single family starts to total starts).

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

ft.com) Venture capital Most companies are not suitable for a venture capital investment. msn.com) Economy Is the decline in inflation done? (wsj.com) If Hipgnosis is any sign, the bull market in song royalties seems to be coming to an end. chrisneumann.com) Which companies might go through the IPO window?

Investing 264

Investing Investments Financial Advising Manufacturing 264

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions. for the month. Although the U.S. Multi-family billings have been below 50 for the 33 consecutive months.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investing 162

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

This is how models depict the economy. This is how the economy actually behaves. I think about that calm pond this time of year when the annual Wall Street forecasts for markets and the economy get released. The result will be very predictable: concentric rings will expand out from where the mass disrupts the calm surface.

Economy 200

Economy Retail Portfolio Assets 200

The Big Picture

APRIL 16, 2025

I try to help the hosts understand investing in this environment with lessons and ideas from How NOT to Invest.

Economics 179

Economics Economy Investments Investing 179

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 19, 2023

ft.com) Sentiment How media is driving a wedge between the economy and sentiment. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economy Still no sign of a pick up in weekly initial unemployment claims. (wsj.com) Mortgage rates have hit 8%. calculatedrisk.substack.com) Fund management Big money money managers are all in on ETFs.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Investing Investments Media 263

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

 At the Money: Stock Picking vs. Value Investing with Jeremy Schwartz, Wisdom Tree. Should value investing be part of that strategy? TRANSCRIPT: Jeremy Schwartz Value Investing Barry Ritholtz : How much you pay for your stocks has a giant impact on how well they perform. What Is value investing?

Investing 296

Investing Investments Valuation Portfolio 296

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

newsletter.rationalwalk.com) Economy How to parse a CPI report. (wsj.com) PE-backed car washes are popping up all over the country. bloomberg.com) KKR ($KKR) is getting out of the music rights business. ft.com) Will Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) ever pay a dividend? morningstar.com) Was employment growth in 2023 lower than initially thought?

Investing 263

Investing Investments Financial Advising Media 263

Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Lets dive into 15 of the best recession-proof business ideas you can start today, even in a bad economy. This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income.

Economy 69

Economy Food Healthcare Economics 69

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? October 2, 2017) Deficit Chicken Hawks vs Ronald Reagan (July 13, 2010) Politics & Investing The post Catastrophizing Debt appeared first on The Big Picture. population?

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investments Investing 347

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

Some damage gets done to the US economy and trade relations. On the corporate side, companies hold off on big CapEx spending, building new plants, investments, and hiring. We’ve already seen consumers begin to freeze travel and spending plans in place. The backlash includes boycotts of the US and its goods.

Economics 318

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 318

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: larrykotlikoff.substack.com) Finance Scott Galloway talks with Barry Ritholtz about his new book "How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth - and How to Avoid Them."

Budgeting 147

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

economy will perform in 2023, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? 2) Employment: Through November 2022, the economy added 4.3

Economics 347

Economics Economy Sales Commission 347

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

(wsj.com) A speculative, but cautionary take against investing in TIPS. bloomberg.com) AI dominates VC investment. wired.com) Economy Industrial production rose in January. paulkrugman.substack.com) Crypto The SEC could soon allow for in-kind redemptions for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. axios.com) It's hard to plan when the U.S.

Advertising 173

Advertising Government Manufacturing Media 173

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) Successful investing requires getting your time horizon correct. scheplick.com) Business The degenerate economy is booming. msn.com) Heat is going to increasingly play a role in how the economy works. wapo.st) Economy More companies are now touting price cuts. Good luck trying to time it.

Medicine 311

Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 311

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Food Communication 162

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 6, 2024

finance.yahoo.com) Apple Apple ($AAPL) is investing in Globalstar to support satellite capabilities. spyglass.org) AI The Novo Nordisk Foundation is investing big in AI. wsj.com) Economy Some signs the economy is slowing. It's getting cutthroat out there. cnet.com) How AI could filter through Apple's ($AAPL) products.

Financial Advising 173

Financial Advising Economy Media Sales 173

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 13, 2025

Strategy The stock market is a big distraction to the business of investing. eater.com) Economy Still no meaningful pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. albertbridgecapital.com) Six reasons to avoid hedge funds, including high fees. semafor.com) The DEI backlash as seen in corporate filings.

Economy 162

Economy Media Investments Investing 162

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 28, 2025

ofdollarsanddata.com) Investing success is more about temperament than intelligence. wsj.com) Economy The November Case-Shiller report showed a 3.8% sherwood.news) A third of sports bettors see it as an 'investment.' (behaviouralinvestment.com) Yesterday shows how dependent the stock market is on the AI theme. Well, you should.

Media 162

Media Economy Investing Investments 162

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. The collective efforts of BRICS highlight the importance of collaboration among emerging economies.

Economics 111

Economics Economy Government Investments 111

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 19, 2024

This is one of them: Chapter 1: The Creation of the Market In the beginning, the Trader created the Market and the Economy. The Spirit of Investment hovered over the trading floor. I have been playing a lot this year with ChatGBT, and saved some of my favorites.

Startup 230

Startup Portfolio Marketing Marketing 230

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2024

wsj.com) Meta ($META) is reportedly investing $10 billion in subsea cables. reuters.com) Economy Quits and job openings are down year-over-year. economy is still pretty dynamic, for now. (linkedin.com) Why CITs are cheaper than mutual funds. finance.yahoo.com) Elon Musk's Tesla ($TSLA) pay package was rejected, again.

Math 147

Math Valuation Startup Economy 147

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 6, 2024

humbledollar.com) Don't make your investing more complicated than it needs to be. flyoverstocks.com) Investing doesn't need to be flashy to succeed. eig.org) Immigration affects the economy in a lot of different ways. thecausalfallacy.com) Economy The labor economy is still on track. economy at present.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Economy Food Insurance 278

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 23, 2025

techcrunch.com) Even institutional investors can't get information on their private equity investments. wsj.com) More new ETFs are using derivatives as a part of their investment strategy. nytimes.com) Economy The 2-year Treasury and Fed fund rates are trading in line with each other. (wsj.com) Ramp is expanding its offerings.

Media 173

Media Economy Portfolio Investing 173

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 10, 2024

sherwood.news) Annual outlooks It's always going to be a 'stockpicker's market' in strategist investment outlooks. behaviouralinvestment.com) Financial writing Nick's favorite investment writing from 2024 including 'No Regrets' by Jonathan Clements. theatlantic.com) Economy Outside of shelter, inflation is still pretty quiescent.

Retail 147

Retail Economy Media Assets 147

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 22, 2025

economy is spending less time in recession. disciplinefunds.com) Investing is hard because the future is uncertain. spyglass.org) Google ($GOOGL) is making an additional investment in Anthropic. (bonddad.blogspot.com) Why yield curve disinversions matter. econbrowser.com) Strategy The U.S. Markets are paying attention.

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Insurance Media Economy 147