article thumbnail

My Bias Blind Spot Bubble

The Big Picture

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. It was never me that made all of those mistakes. But it was. That game was eye-opening. As Daniel Kahneman explained , “We are blind to our blindness.

Economics 308
article thumbnail

Q2 GDP Growth at 2.1% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to “Updates to GDP”). In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised). Click on graph for larger image.

Economics 312
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

3%: Great Depression, GFC, 1970s & 2020s?

The Big Picture

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

article thumbnail

Q3 GDP Growth Revised Up to 3.2% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

percent in the third quarter of 2022 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. For more information, refer to "Updates to GDP.". economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.0 In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.8

Economics 240
article thumbnail

Q1 GDP Growth Revised Up to 2.0% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

percent in the first quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to "Updates to GDP"). In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6

article thumbnail

It’s Crunch Time For Many Policyholders

Wealth Management

What’s more, they’ll know that in light of today’s political and economic conditions and circumstances, they’ll have far more success with clients if they position the “explore the options” project in terms of current and projected cash flow savings rather than future estate tax savings or liquidity. Resourceful agents will figure this out.

article thumbnail

May Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.3 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

Brief excerpt: Rising inventory, combined with pent-up demand, is keeping growth going mostly by holding the long list of economic- and price-related headwinds at bay, but there is potential for demand to sharply drop at the end of the month – and in June - if an agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling remains elusive and further spooks consumers.

Sales 208