Calculated Risk
JULY 16, 2025
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July. Hiring remained generally cautious, which many contacts attributed to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty. A growing number of Districts cited labor shortages in the skilled trades.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 10, 2025
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9%
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Calculated Risk
JANUARY 15, 2025
Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Vehicle sales grew modestly.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 8, 2025
A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation. All participants judged that uncertainty about the scope, timing, and economic effects of potential changes in policies affecting foreign trade and immigration was elevated.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 4, 2025
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in March.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 18, 2024
To prove their point, a number of friendly commentators, academics, and hired guns all wrote endless white papers, Op-Eds and commentaries. But they made one super-sized mistake: they cheated with the numbers. Its numbers are fake (June 12, 2024) Can Stanford tell the difference between scientific fact and fiction?
The Big Picture
AUGUST 1, 2025
Who would ever have guessed that chaotically deploying a random set of discredited economic policies for 6 months would disrupt the economy and hurt the labor market…? The headline NFP number was a disappointing +73,000; that included a decrease in government workers of -10,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% last month.
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