Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 40, up from 39 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Sales 277

Sales Numbers Economics Marketing 277

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2025 and a few predictions: Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

Economics 278

Economics Sales Numbers Investing 278

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The chart shows the peak-to-trough declines of all the bear markets with the popular definition of a 20% decline, measured up until the start of the first 20% rally. As Batnick points out, all of these horrendous periods of market pain are already factored into long-term returns of equities. Have a look at the BAML chart above.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) The housing market is in a very real way locked up. ritholtz.com) 30-year mortgage rates are now well over 7.0% (cnbc.com) Global There is a boom in the number of space-related startups in India. calculatedriskblog.com) The labor market is threading the needle.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. To ensure we’re looking at the proper vintage data, we’ll use FRED’s sibling, ALFRED, which allows us to pick a point in time and view the then-real-time numbers. maybe just one more graf.

Government 356

Government Media Numbers Food 356

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.

Retirement 189

Retirement Investing Investments Numbers 189

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

How Money & Markets Really Work." podcasts.apple.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk about the history of prediction markets with Ryan Isakow. podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier."

Budgeting 147

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Furthermore, some participants commented that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure in the near future.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2025

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. from a year ago The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 75-week streak of annual gains. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.2%

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics Sales Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 34, down from 40 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This ties the November 2023 reading, and is the lowest since the index hit 31 in December 2022.

Sales 147

Sales Economics Taxes Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections. The consensus is for a reading of -2.0, down from 5.7.

Retail 191

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 191

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

 At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? A 500% move in the stock market. Explain your dad’s thinking about how war plus inflation equals a stock bull market.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Wall Street Journal ) 200 Years of Market Concentration : Is this trend an anomaly or part of an ongoing pattern in the stock market? To answer this question, we have collected data on the concentration of the US stock market over the past 235 years, from 1790 until the present. And its maintained by hidden figures like her.

Government 246

Government Advertising Economy Engineering 246

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

We will say this about the election — we could see some market volatility this week, although the extra days it took to determine the winner in 2020 actually saw market strength. Bottom line, investors have been quite spoiled with a historic year for markets and it is important to remember that stocks indeed can go down.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

Markets The U.S. stock market is set for its best two-year performance since 1997-98. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% wsj.com) After a good start, energy sector performance has faded. axios.com) Intel ($INTC) had its worst year as a public company.

Media 173

Media Economy Numbers Economics 173

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Again, any market historian would tell you the data supports this position. I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2025

market is overvalued, and if the alternative investment industry is one of the biggest grifts in economic history. They unpack why diversification is both boring and sexy, whether the U.S. This is the first podcast where i am discussing the book.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Wealth Management Numbers 147

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2024

(investmentecosystem.com) Research Want to forecast stock market bubbles? blogs.cfainstitute.org) How the number of firms in an industry affects idiosyncratic volatility. blogs.cfainstitute.org) How the number of firms in an industry affects idiosyncratic volatility. returnstacked.com) A look at how to identify economic regimes.

Retail 278

Retail Accounting Taxes Numbers 278

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

Markets A lot of stock market indices are sitting at all-time highs. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

License 289

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 289

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. The market disagrees and so do I. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. trillion continue to mount in Germany.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

Will second-quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much of this is priced into the stock market already? Will second quarter earnings (released this month) disappoint or has the market already moderated expectations?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2025

But this is a fun conversation with Pete Dominick discussing the economy, the market and of course, the new book! He is the creator of The Big Picture, often ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Yeah, yeah, more of me, I know.

Investing 130

Investing Investments Startup Wealth Management 130

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. And we have a frozen housing market. theatlantic.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. politico.com) These ten states have uninsured rates under 5%.

Financial Advising 281

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 281

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

If only there were some ways to prevent investors from interfering with the markets greatest strength the incomparable and guaranteed ability to create wealth by compounding over time. Drawdowns, corrections, and crashes are not the problem your behavior in response to market turmoil is what causes long-term financial harm.

Investing 267

Investing Investments Accounting Startup 267

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Because the market is all about what is priced in and what isnt priced in. And lower exports are a drag on US economic growth. Heres the catch. Why does sentiment matter?

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 78

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

Markets Asset class returns were pretty green in 2023 except for commodities. theatlantic.com) The DOE has successfully timed the oil market. marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023.

Financial Advising 284

Financial Advising Medical Economy Manufacturing 284

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 10, 2024

“In addition to data center planning normalizing, a moderate pullback in the number of planning projects for several other nonresidential sectors also contributed to the decline in the Dodge Momentum Index for October,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network.

Healthcare 147

Healthcare Planning Education Numbers 147

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

One potential positive is market breadth has held up quite well in the face of the near-bear market. The recently released Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed a record number of participants who intend to cut US exposure, as shown in the chart below. The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure.

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 78

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Markets A five-step framework for reading market news. econbrowser.com) Global economic growth numbers don't tell us much. tker.co) By these measures, small cap stocks are cheap. morningstar.com) What happens historically after a Zweig Breadth Thrust? wsj.com) It's been a long time coming.

Financial Advising 273

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 273

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

Markets Small and mid-cap stocks have badly lagged large caps. theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton.

Assets 271

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 271

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). See also : The Housing Market Correction (Wells Fargo, October 5, 2022). _. Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2023

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The A to Z of economics : Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English. ( The weekend is here! was responsible for two phenomenally destructive innovations.

Banking 304

Banking Education Economics Management 304

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

As RIA firms’ challenges in attracting and retaining talent have continued, firms have needed to reduce their business development activities to stay within their existing staff's capacity (compounding the challenges of growing firm revenue during a bear market that has reduced most firms’ assets under management).

Financial Planner 244

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 244