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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246
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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244
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4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Moreover, historically extreme valuations in a small handful of mega-cap stocks that account for about 30% of the market weight in the S&P 500 (i.e.,

Economics 246
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Talk Your Book: Investing in Goldminers

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by VanEck: See here for more information on VanEck’s Goldminer strategy On today’s show, we discuss: Gold making new all time highs The difference between investing in gold vs investing in gold miners Central banks driving prices higher Gold miner valuation Economic conditions and gold miners (..)

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Sunday links: the appeal of simple stories

Abnormal Returns

tker.co) You can't take historical stock market statistics to the bank. riabiz.com) Companies Nvidia's ($NVDA) valuation has gotten ahead of itself. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Markets Wall Street strategists views on the market can differ in the short and long term.

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Avoid the Unforced Investment Errors Even Billionaires Make

The Big Picture

So I bought Silicon Valley Bank options (SVB) right after it got cut in halfbut right before it went to zero. My advice was not based on fear of a bubble or the (over)valuation of Yahoo; rather, I suggested employing a regret minimization framework.2 I was up so much on that trade that my trading demons were emboldened.

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Wednesday links: an awesome product

Abnormal Returns

(marginalrevolution.com) Finance Private equity is stuck between elevated valuations high interest rates and a moribund IPO market. apolloacademy.com) How much longer can banks and office owners push out loan expirations? institutionalinvestor.com) How rising interest rates have affected interest coverage ratios for leveraged loans.