James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations. The relationship between inflation and stock valuations is a strong one, as shown in Figure 2 , which meant the market could no longer support price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios over 20 (the same goes for the relationship between interest rates and stock valuations).

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

LPL’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recommends a neutral tactical allocation to equities, with a modest overweight to fixed income funded from cash. sectors) with the exception of preferred securities, which look attractive after having recently sold off due to the banking stresses.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

One equity market debate discussed frequently in the LPL Research Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) is the growth vs. value style reversal experienced the past 12 months. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations.

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Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

The Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee’s (STAAC) S&P 500 year-end fair value target of 4,000-4,100 is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5 It is also a major component used to calculate the price-toearnings valuation ratio. times the STAAC’s 2023 S&P 500 earnings per share forecast of $230.

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James Hendries

MARCH 6, 2023

Higher interest rates are challenging stock valuations and perhaps pushing the gains further out in 2023, but we still see solid potential for double-digit returns for stocks this year. Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. All index data from FactSet.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

We maintain our preference for equities over fixed income and cash in our recommended tactical asset allocation. Stock valuations are higher but bond yields are still low enough to support valuations with the 10-year Treasury yield well under 3% despite the big jobs number. All index data from FactSet. 08/23).

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Retailer valuations have also taken a hit, as the forward (next 12 months) P/E multiple has contracted ~20% year to date, from ~27x to ~22x currently. Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. All index data from Bloomberg. 12/2023).

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Recent wholesale inflation tells a similar story of a peak in pricing pressures, which has been the expectation of the Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) at LPL Research. Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. 11/23).

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates. So a P/E over 20 is probably too rich.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

We believe either outcome would be market-friendly, although the bigger market driver will likely be central banks’ efforts to tame inflation. As far as markets are concerned, the policy impact is likely to be small, and market participants will continue to be more focused on central bank policy and inflation. 11/23).

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