Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.

Sales 214

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 214

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions. for the month. Although the U.S.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investing 162

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky.

Government 246

Government Advertising Economy Engineering 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. from 459 thousand SAAR in February 2025.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investing 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Monday: No major economic releases scheduled.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Fintoo

JUNE 11, 2025

2025 hasn’t been kind to the Indian stock market. Market […] The post Indian Stock Market in 2025: A Global Rollercoaster appeared first on Fintoo Blog. Market […] The post Indian Stock Market in 2025: A Global Rollercoaster appeared first on Fintoo Blog. Let’s break down the chaos and bring some clarity.

Marketing 99

Marketing Marketing Economy Financial Planning 99

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales 165

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 165

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 10, 2025

sherwood.news) RIP Venu Sports: 2024-2025. cnbc.com) Global Trudeau's economic record in Canada is disappointing. russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% economy continues to slow.

Economy 162

Economy Media Economics Sales 162

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2024

Markets Higher for longer is the theme going into 2025. fa-mag.com) Economy Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2025?' calculatedriskblog.com) Ten risks for 2025 including the introduction of tariffs. apolloacademy.com) There's large cap growth stocks in the U.S.,

Advertising 147

Advertising Media Banking Economy 147

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Abnormal Returns

MAY 11, 2025

humbledollar.com) 2025 is not that unusual stock-market wise. marginalrevolution.com) Economy How much economic activity got pulled forward due to tariffs? tker.co) The economic data hasn't rolled over yet into recession. carsongroup.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing Economics Media 147

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2024

papers.ssrn.com) Taxes No matter who is President in 2025, taxes will be at the top of the agenda. sherwood.news) Economy The U.S. economy is on shakier ground. ft.com) The labor economy has slowed down to pre-pandemic levels. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Startup Economy Taxes 274

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 49% March 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

February 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3%

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). At their September meeting, Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections that reflect these recent developments. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

April 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row , following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 16, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was stronger than the June projection. However, the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth, leading to a small increase in the unemployment rate relative to its current level.

Economy 245

Economy Banking Economics Marketing 245

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Read more : March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025 Large Cap Region: The Heavyweights Clash This years large-cap region includes some of the markets biggest names. Eli Lilly , on the other hand, boasts a robust pipeline and solid earnings, making it a relatively safer and more predictable investment for the remainder of 2025.

Investments 78

Investments Investing Valuation Advertising 78

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

At the Money: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on Tariffs, Supply Chains and Inflation (March 5, 2025) What is the potential inflation impact of tariffs? How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? He’s president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Validea

JUNE 3, 2025

Currently, fewer than 70 companies meet this criteria across various sectors of the economy. These companies have maintained dividend increases through different economic cycles, indicating their ability to generate steady cash flows and manage capital effectively. CVX CHEVRON CORP $137.84 $240,768 15.8

Economics 52

Economics Economy Management Investing 52

Calculated Risk

JUNE 6, 2025

Rail freight volumes in May 2025 tell a story of an industry navigating crosscurrents. On one side, carload traffic showed solid growth, reflecting resilience in key sectors of the domestic economy. in May 2025 compared with a year ago (about 50,000 extra carloads), a slight step down from April’s 6.2% rail carloads rose 5.9%

Retail 130

Retail Manufacturing Economy Economics 130

Your Richest Life

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Even though 2025 has only just begun, there are already big changes unfolding that could impact your wallet. That decision is a departure from their announcement at the September meeting to cut rates a full percentage point in 2025. Future cuts will depend on inflation and the strength of the economy as the year goes on.

Financial Market 52

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Medicine 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The good news is we do anticipate the US may play catch up the rest of 2025, but big picture, this is a global bull market and investors are being rewarded for being in risk assets. The Rocky Balboa Market Something unique about 2025 so far is how stocks have bounced back when they’ve been down.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 52

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Deloitte has released a promising forecast for India’s economic growth. percent for FY 2024-2025. Dr. Rumki Majumdar sees India’s economy showing strong resilience after the election period. The country maintains its position among the world’s fastest-growing large economies.

Economy 116

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investing 116

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2023

On March 7th, Fed Chair Powell said : … the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. There is uncertainty regarding FOMC policy this month due to the banking issues. For review, here are the December projections.

Banking 237

Banking Economics Economy Accounting 237

Validea

APRIL 3, 2025

Currently, fewer than 70 companies meet these criteria, representing various sectors across the economy. By maintaining and increasing shareholder payments through different economic environments, these businesses have shown their ability to generate reliable profits and manage cash flow effectively. SYY SYSCO CORP $75.30 $36,839 19.4

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Investing 52

Zoe Financial

APRIL 7, 2025

Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA April 7th, 2025 Watch Time: 5 min. to 2025% the highest in 100+ years. Opinions expressed by Zoe Financial are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. imports from 2.3%

Marketing 81

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Financial Advisor 81

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 29, 2025

economy contracted for the first time in three years to start off 2025. The BEA's second estimate of real gross domestic product showed economic growth decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1 2025. The latest estimate was higher than the -0.3% forecast and lower than the Q4 final estimate of 2.5%.

Economy 52

Economy Economics 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 15, 2024

In this episode of Take 5, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, navigate three positive economic developments: First, the election results are finalized, ending uncertainty for markets Second, inflation appears to be normalizing, particularly in housing, which may benefit (..)

Economy 75

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 75

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Current Market Volatility Normal for a Bull Market The S&P 500 is off to a bit of a rocky start in 2025, an extension of weakness in December 2024. Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. on Friday alone. million average per year).

Marketing 75

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 75

Zoe Financial

DECEMBER 28, 2024

New Year, New Wealth: A Guide to Financial Resolutions for 2025 Updated December 30th, 2024 Reading Time: 7 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team As the New Year approaches, many of us set personal goals to make the coming year better than the last. Economies and markets fluctuate. Zoe Financial does not provide legal advice.

Estate Planning 40

Estate Planning Financial Advisor Accounting Wealth Advisor 40

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. range (or even lower) in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Calculated Risk

JUNE 11, 2023

Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed better than the FOMC expected, and inflation was slightly above expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 5.5% , in line with our own forecast.

Banking 182

Banking Economy Economics Accounting 182