Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January 2025 -- Tuesday, March 18th -- 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections. 2:00 PM: FOMC Projections.

Retail 191

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 191

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent.

Government 257

Government Food Economics Investing 257

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Contacts expected prices to continue to rise in 2025, with some noting the potential for higher tariffs to contribute to price increases. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Energy activity was mixed.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.

Sales 162

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. Before 2025 ends, a mild recession begins.

Economics 317

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 317

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? I didnt understand this as representing a significant threat to the established economic order. In a word, the U.S.

Taxes 300

Taxes Economics Education Planning 300

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 12%. This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 221

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 221

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Financial Services Food 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.

Clients 270

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics 254

Economics Marketing Marketing 254

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3

Sales 213

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 213

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026. for the month.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investing 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2025

The report shows total household debt increased by $167 billion (0.9%) in Q1 2025, to $18.20 The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining student loan delinquency, including which borrowers were past due in the first quarter and implications for their access to other credit.

Retail 165

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 165

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. he dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand.

Sales 214

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 214

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investments 345

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. Mar 6th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 179

Economics Management Investing Investments 179

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9

Banking 182

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 18, 2025

Martin Luther King Jr. -- Tuesday, January 21st -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Wednesday, January 22nd -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. . -- Monday, January 20th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Economics Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 9, 2025. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Government 236

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 236

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2025

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, April 24th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8

Food 255

Food Economics 255

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

home price growth in January 2025 was largely flat at 3.3% increase from January 2025 to January 2026, there are stark differences between regions. Despite this, national single-family home prices are forecast to reach a new peak in March 2025. From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Largely Flat in January U.S.

Economics 162

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 162

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 12, 2024

Falling interest rates and the disappearance of a valuation gap with private real estate should also add tailwinds for publicly listed real estate.

Economics 265

Economics Valuation 265

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 Job Streak Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March 2025 (2017 dollars). The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the U.S.

Food 165

Food Economics 165

Calculated Risk

MAY 7, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 2, 2025. Conventional purchase application volume increased 13 percent and was up 9 percent from year-ago levels, a surprisingly strong move given lingering economic uncertainty.

Economics 179

Economics Manufacturing Government Marketing 179

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. he dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investing 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. Coming March 18, 2025 see more at HowNOTtoInvestbook.com The post My Bias Blind Spot Bubble appeared first on The Big Picture. But it was.

Economics 306

Economics Assets Clients Investments 306

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 YoY in January.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2025

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends ViewData for Week Ending April 12, 2025 Active inventory climbed 31.2% In particular, recent economic uncertainty and concerns around job security could keep buyers on the sidelines, potentially applying downward pressure on prices. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.2%

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics Sales Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 6, 2025

At 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.0%. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, N.Y.

Economics 147

Economics 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 18, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of May 18, 2025 Monday: No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 43 and DOW futures are down 267 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $62.49 per barrel and Brent at $65.41 per barrel.

Economics 147

Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2024

This is likely driving owners and developers to remain optimistic about 2025 market conditions and pushing more projects into the planning queue.” This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 331

Healthcare Planning Retail Economics 331

Calculated Risk

MAY 7, 2025

Owners and developers are navigating heightened economic and policy uncertainty, which likely bogged down much of this months planning activity. This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 147

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347