Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December. Contacts expected prices to continue to rise in 2025, with some noting the potential for higher tariffs to contribute to price increases. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Energy activity was mixed.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic. This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before February 24, 2025. emphasis added

Economics

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will wages increase in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

Economics

Wealth Management

JULY 2, 2025

trillion annually over the next decade as part of the great wealth transfer, a new report finds. trillion annually over the next decade as part of the great wealth transfer, a new report finds.

Financial Advisor

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent.

Government

Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January 2025 -- Tuesday, March 18th -- 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections. 2:00 PM: FOMC Projections.

Retail

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 67, 2025. Participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further , making it appropriate to take a cautious approach until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer. emphasis added

Economics

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JULY 12, 2025

For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, July 14th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, July 15th -- 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3%

Retail

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2025

The key report this week is May CPI. -- Monday, June 9th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, June 10th -- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April. -- Wednesday, June 11th -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 19, 2024

Folks will also play close attention to the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from meeting participants. Here is a chart showing futures rate for the federal funds rate for December 2024 through December 2025 for June 12, September 18, and November 15 of this year. Click on table for larger image.

Economics

Wealth Management

JULY 30, 2025

Anthony Venette , Manager, Valuation Services , Withum July 30, 2025 5 Min Read The passage of recent tax legislation has brought welcome clarity to estate planners and private investors alike.

Estate Planning

Wealth Management

JUNE 27, 2025

June 27, 2025 Private markets are no longer just for the ultra-wealthy. Q&A: What Was Behind Schechter’s Decision to Sell to Arax? Q&A: What Was Behind Schechter’s Decision to Sell to Arax? In fact, they may be the missing piece in your clients’ portfolios—and AssetMark is betting big on that future.

Estate Planning

The Big Picture

JULY 17, 2025

That reduces overall consumer spending and slows overall economic growth. By Ben Casselman New York Times, July 16, 2025 _ 1. The problem is that tariffs act as a tax increase. Any dollar spent on tariffs is a dollar that is not spent elsewhere. For Corporate America, reductions in margins will negatively impact profits.

Math

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2025

The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? I didnt understand this as representing a significant threat to the established economic order. In a word, the U.S.

Taxes

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.

Clients

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2025

Who would ever have guessed that chaotically deploying a random set of discredited economic policies for 6 months would disrupt the economy and hurt the labor market…? Listen to my conversation with Neil Dutta from July for his economic warnings of a recession late 2025/early 2026). Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%

Economy

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. Before 2025 ends, a mild recession begins.

Economics

The Big Picture

JUNE 3, 2025

Whether it was ideology, economic innumeracy, or simply idiocy does not matter. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself. A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to put America on the soundest financial footing possible was missed.

Economics

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

Retail

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

Overall, the strong performance of the Momentum Index this past year is expected to support nonresidential construction spending throughout 2025. This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026. for the month.

Economy

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025.

Sales

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 Job Streak Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 12%. This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. Mar 6th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3

Sales

Wealth Management

AUGUST 1, 2025

Diana Britton , Executive Editor , WealthManagement.com August 1, 2025 4 Min Read LPL Financial said that it had closed on the acquisition of Commonwealth Financial Network Friday morning, adding that it was pushing out its final integration timing to the fourth quarter of 2026. Raymond James Practice Mercer Advisors Lands $1.2B

Recruitment

Calculated Risk

JULY 19, 2025

For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, July 21st -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, July 22nd -- 8:30 AM: Speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Opening Remarks , At the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference, Washington, D.C.

Manufacturing

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025. Participants noted that monetary policy would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks. emphasis added

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2025

The report shows total household debt increased by $167 billion (0.9%) in Q1 2025, to $18.20 The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining student loan delinquency, including which borrowers were past due in the first quarter and implications for their access to other credit.

Retail

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9

Banking

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. Coming March 18, 2025 see more at HowNOTtoInvestbook.com The post My Bias Blind Spot Bubble appeared first on The Big Picture. But it was.

Economics

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 YoY in January.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2025

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been below expectations, the unemployment rate and inflation close to expectations. annualized, and it is likely growth will also be slow the 2nd half of 2025. Mar 2025 1.5 Mar 2025 4.3 As of May 2025 , PCE inflation increased 2.3% Mar 2025 2.6

Banking