Remove 2024 Remove Economics Remove Economy
article thumbnail

Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% in 2024 (around 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2025?

Economics 290
article thumbnail

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Calculated Risk

The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Given the 115pp reduction in bilateral US-China tariffs on May 12, we think a more appropriate characterization could be: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”. Dec 2024 1.8 Dec 2024 4.2 Dec 2024 2.3

Banking 286
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% in 2024 (around 2.6% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.

Economy 173
article thumbnail

Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"

Calculated Risk

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal.

Economics 162
article thumbnail

“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. ” As the chart above shows, all the major Wall Street brokerage and bank strategists failed to anticipate how well the market would do in 2024 (Bloomberg’s chart below). So as strategists at Bank of America Corp.,

Banking 344
article thumbnail

Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2024.

Economy 298
article thumbnail

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in September, "Slowest growth rate in over a year"

Calculated Risk

economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024. Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. According to the latest numbers from the U.S.

Economy 254