Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 1718, 2024. A couple of participants judged that positive sentiment in financial markets and momentum in economic activity could continue to put upward pressure on inflation.

Economics 273

Economics Accounting Financial Market Numbers 273

Wealth Management

AUGUST 20, 2024

A bold attempt to tackle the housing crisis and address economic disparities through a combination of housing initiatives and tax reforms

Economics 299

Economics Taxes 299

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 6) Monetary Policy: The FOMC cut the federal funds rate four times in 2024 from "5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent" at the beginning of 2024, to "4-1/4 to 4-1/2" at the end of the year.

Economics 278

Economics Sales Numbers Investing 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 YoY in December.

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. Note: To be clear, while the law passed in Sept 2023, it did not take effect until April 2024.]

Food 306

Food Math Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 19, 2024

Folks will also play close attention to the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from meeting participants. Here is a chart showing futures rate for the federal funds rate for December 2024 through December 2025 for June 12, September 18, and November 15 of this year. Click on table for larger image.

Economics 263

Economics Marketing Marketing 263

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 243

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 243

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question. in November, up from 3.7% in November 2023.

Economics 272

Economics Sales Investing Investments 272

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2024 -- Wednesday, November 20th -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing Sales Numbers Economics 173

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Will inventory increase further in 2024? First, a brief history.

Economics 290

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. How much will job growth slow in 2024? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. million jobs in 2024.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 2, 2024

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. What will happen with house prices in 2024? In October, the months-of-supply was at 3.6

Sales 296

Sales Economics 296

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 5, 2024

Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.” This map is from the report.

Economy 254

Economy Numbers Economics Marketing 254

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56

Retail 279

Retail Numbers Economics Sales 279

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. Between January 2022 and June 2024, total California jobs grew by about 156,000, with government jobs accounting for 96.5 MSM uncritically repeated the false number.

Government 356

Government Media Numbers Food 356

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3

Government 257

Government Food Economics Investing 257

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% in 2024 (around 2.6% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024.

Economy 173

Economy Economics Sales Investing 173

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2024

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. 10:00 AM: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the 2024 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Survey Data. The key reports this week are July New and Existing Home sales.

Sales 275

Sales Economics Manufacturing 275

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 8, 2024

The Federal Reserve’s signaling to market that their next moves will be rate cuts actually makes it more difficult to cut rates.

Economics 286

Economics Marketing Marketing 286

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. percent.

Government 218

Government Economics Investing Investments 218

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 5, 2023

EPFR Director of Research Cameron Brandt shares a ton of knowledge on money market funds, economic data, China and top stories for 2024.

Economics 289

Economics Marketing Marketing 289

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting. The consensus is for 3.85 million SAAR, down from 3.95 million in July.

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.

Clients 270

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3

Sales 213

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 213

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? Federal Reserve : While a recession is possible in 2024, it mostly depends upon how long the FOMC keeps rates tighter (higher) than is appropriate for the economy. All of that tightening is why we cannot rule out a recession in 2024. before falling to 0.7% in November 2023.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9 June 2024 2.5 June 2024 2.8

Banking 182

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2025

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 13th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, January 14th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% down from 0.2.

Retail 162

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

The report shows total household debt increased by $93 billion (0.5%) in Q4 2024, to $18.04 The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining delinquency rates in the auto loan market. said Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. rise from 2024Q3.

Economics 205

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 205

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third estimate). 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2024 up from -6.0.

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 262

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 9) House Prices: It appears house prices - as measured by the national repeat sales index ( Case-Shiller, FHFA , and Freddie Mac ) - will be up 3% to 4% in 2024.

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024? The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, December 5th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 55.5, down from 56.0.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Wealth Management

APRIL 7, 2024

Mixed economic signals give rise to cautious optimism.

Marketing 273

Marketing Marketing Economics 273

Wealth Management

APRIL 7, 2024

Mixed economic signals give rise to cautious optimism.

Marketing 272

Marketing Marketing Economics 272

Calculated Risk

JUNE 8, 2024

2:00 PM: FOMC Projections This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. The key report this week is May CPI. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS.

Economics 293

Economics Marketing Marketing 293

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 9, 2024

The key economic reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales. 3:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At Conversation with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Dallas, Texas -- Friday, November 15th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

Retail 147

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

[Nov 27th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. percent to 3.0 percent.

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147