Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.

Sales

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might place some checks on the executive branch. Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.”

Sales

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

While there are reasons for recent declines, we view it in part as a perfectly normal pause after the gains of 2023 and 2024. Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Mortgage rates declined last week on souring consumer sentiment regarding the economy and increasing uncertainty over the impact of new tariffs levied on imported goods into the U.S. Purchase application activity is up about 15% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Government

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”. from September 2023. from September 2023. After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 The Northeast PHSI expanded 6.5%

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 11, 2025

Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.”. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 13% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. percent from 6.92

Economy

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

You’ll remember as I came into the Fed, I started the very beginning of, of 2023 in December of 2022. It was the Bloomberg economist who said there was a 100% chance of recession in 2023 because. Look, this, this is a t tangled, uh, this is a tangled web, uh, that is critically important to, to the economy.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JULY 16, 2025

Treasury yields finished higher last week on average despite an intra-week drop, driven partly by renewed concerns of the impact of tariffs on the economy. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Economy

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

Powell’s prepared remarks started off by saying the economy was/is in good shape, including labor markets and the inflation picture. The language is very similar to what Powell used to say back in 2022 and 2023, when they were raising rates. to above 4.6% (thankfully, it didn’t go higher than 4.2%).

Marketing

Carson Wealth

MARCH 17, 2025

In last weeks commentary, we took a look at tariff policy, the market uncertainty it was creating, and what was going on in the broader economy. But whether were looking at the current state of the economy or market history, our focus is always on facts over feelings. Same thing for 2023.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2025

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

Treasury yields moved lower on softer consumer spending data as consumers are feeling somewhat less upbeat about the economy and job market. Purchase application activity is up about 15% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economy

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. on average, well above the 7.1% average seen in all years.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. It is also the first time the S&P 500 is negative (although only down 1%) over three calendar months since October 2023. Heres the thing. Is It Time To Worry About Consumption?

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. The economy created 139,000 jobs in May (above expectations for a 126,000 increase) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector.

Economics

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky.

Government

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 11, 2025

The Two Sides of the AI Economy AI spending has started showing up in some of the macroeconomic data in a big way. For perspective, consumption makes up 68% of the economy whereas IT equipment and software make up just over 4%. Cash-rich tech companies are going on a capex spending spree, providing a crucial boost to the economy.

Economy

The Big Picture

MARCH 4, 2025

Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. Alright, so, so you go from public finance, how did you evolve towards co-head of innovation economy? So Barry Ritholtz : Let’s talk about your dual role, your, your co-head of innovation economy and your head of specialized industries.

Banking

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 8, 2025

The economy is slowing… but does that mean a recession is coming? Key Takeaways: Job growth is decelerating Just 35,000 jobs added monthly on average in the last 3 months — down sharply from 2023’s pace of 150K–200K/month. Not so fast. points to GDP recently. points to GDP recently. appeared first on Carson Wealth.

Economy

Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 9, 2025

1 Originally composed of 12 companies, the DJIA looked to reflect the major sectors of the late 19th-century American economy. economy at the turn of the last century. economy and stock market over time. economy dominated by manufacturing and heavy industry to one more diversified into services and technology.

Marketing

International College of Financial Planning

JUNE 17, 2025

Between FY 2021–22 and FY 2023–24, LRS-based outward investments in equities and bonds doubled—indicating rising investor interest in international diversification. Strategic Recommendations Broaden Asset Classes: Expand beyond U.S. stocks to include ETFs, bonds, and funds from Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.

Compliance

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 6, 2025

As you can see below, over the course of the year, we went from a largely inverted yield curve at the end of 2023 (short-term rates higher than long-term rates) to a normally sloped curve at the end of 2024 (higher long-term rates). In response to that, voters ousted incumbents at a high rate in 2023 and 2024.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 4, 2025

The Economy Is Currently Being Held Up By AI This was a big week if you wanted to get a picture of the economy, inflation, and even policy (both monetary and tariffs). Elevated interest rates are hurting rate-sensitive areas of the economy like housing, which are now dragging on economic growth. Let’s dig in. annualized pace.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

JULY 30, 2025

There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the economy and job market, which is weighing on prospective homebuyers’ decisions,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Economy

Discipline Funds

MAY 17, 2025

Fitch downgraded US government debt in August of 2023 and rates are largely unchanged since then. And that’s assuming the economy is even strong enough at that point for consumers to eat the full cost. It might cause a market reaction, but again, we’ve seen this before. Or that firms won’t eat the cost to some degree.

Government

Meb Faber Research

JULY 20, 2025

At around 25% of the total, or approximately $30 trillion, the US is the world’s dominant economy. However, many investors assume the share of the pie is much bigger. Likewise, if you ask investors what share of GDP do the emerging markets represent, 90% underestimate that emerging markets are a MAJORITY of global GDP.

Economy

Nationwide Financial

AUGUST 14, 2024

Then, a shift in the outlook for the economy (partly by weaker employment numbers) caused spreads to widen, particularly for high-yield bonds (e.g., Then, because of recent market volatility, spreads increased to 393 bps on August 5—the widest level since November 2023—before settling by the end of the week at 357 bps. Treasuries.

Economics

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 28, 2024

You can dance around emotionally charged issues like politics, the economy, the stock market and your love life for only so long before your cranky uncle decides to shatter the cordial air with a five-minute rant about the state of the world. Especially over a plate of turkey and mashed potatoes. Callie Like what you just read?

Media

Carson Wealth

MAY 27, 2025

The rate environment was also making headlines, as the 30-year Treasury yield approached its October 2023 high before retreating on Thursday and Friday. We remain more concerned about the rate environment than stocks because of what they tell us about where cracks may be forming in the economy.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 21, 2025

over Bidens four years and was over 5% in 2023 and 2024. Those high rates arent good for some important areas of the economy, but they do have their upside for savers. In 2016 2017 Trumps election was seen as a major boon to smaller businesses and cyclical sectors of the economy leading up to inauguration.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Chart 1: Election Years Tend to Be Higher What we said then: “The best year for stocks is a preelection year (like 2023), while midterm years (like 2022) are the worst. That played out this time, with stocks down big in 2022 and bouncing back big in 2023. In fact, the economy has been pretty good the last two years. of the time.“

Marketing

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Buyers remained active in the purchase market, helped by gradually improving inventory conditions and a more positive outlook on the economy and job market. Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. percent from 6.67

Economy

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 6, 2025

If you combine 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 was up 57%. Will the economy avoid a recession? PMI and ISM data will offer an overall snapshot of the economys performance. Economies and markets fluctuate. Stock Market Assessment S&P 500 In 2024, the S&P 500 was up 25%. Stay tuned for next week.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Car insurance costs surged in 2023 due to lagged effects of higher car prices post-pandemic (and more car crashes), rising 26% y/y at its peak in August 2023. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.

Marketing