Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. In November, we saw the first positive score for multi-family since 2022.

Clients 270

Clients Numbers Economics Investments 270

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent. Although the majority of units built-for-rent are still multi-family (blue) - even after the sharp decline in 2022 - there has been a significant pickup in single family units started built-for-rent (red).

Numbers 263

Numbers 263

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2025

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) There is much more in the article!

Numbers 232

Numbers 232

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2025

t took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. in December 2022. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 22.4% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 YoY in March.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2025

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.7% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 YoY in June. million from 4.62

Education 243

Education Numbers Economics Government 243

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been almost 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for some readers! below the recent peak in 2022. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory ) There is much more in the article!

Numbers 147

Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6

Retail 279

Retail Numbers Economics Sales 279

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was slightly below expectations, and December and January payrolls were revised down by 2,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The headline number was decent.

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. in December 2022. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 25.1% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 214

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 214

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 YoY in April.

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2025

year-over-year The number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 31.1% Last week boasted the highest number of new listings since mid-2022. New listings were the highest since 2022. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. higher than this time last year.

Sales 179

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 Below is a comparable table for the end of 2022. trillion, with most of the decline reflecting decreases in Treasury and Agency MBS holdings.

Assets 165

Assets Portfolio Accounting Marketing 165

Wealth Management

JUNE 20, 2025

Number 8860726. Most clients want to know their ‘Am I OK numbers,’ and we can show a number or a summary, that is what makes it unique,” he said. Registered in England & Wales with number 01835199, registered office 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales.

Wealth Management 187

Wealth Management Management Financial Advisor Clients 187

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. in December 2022. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 20.8% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 277

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 277

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2025

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. in 2021 and 2022 and at the highest level since 2018. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. in Q1 from 6.9%

Numbers 240

Numbers Media Sales 240

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This ties the November 2023 reading, and is the lowest since the index hit 31 in December 2022. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 34, down from 40 last month.

Sales 147

Sales Economics Taxes Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Most notable was the strength of billings growth in the West, where the score was the highest it has been since mid-2022. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. This was first positive score for multi-family since August 2022.

Numbers 281

Numbers Economics Investments Investing 281

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

I have made some fortuitously timed buys, including Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) calls purchased during the October 2022 lows. Using 2% of my liquid net worth in my cowboy account, I play the dumbest game possible: market timing with out-of-the-money stock options. I was up so much on that trade that my trading demons were emboldened.

Investing 264

Investing Investments Accounting Startup 264

Wealth Management

JULY 18, 2025

Number 8860726. Cohen built the firm up over the years as a Kestra affiliate, eventually selling to Bluespring in 2022. Registered in England & Wales with number 01835199, registered office 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG.

Estate Planning 270

Estate Planning Wealth Management Clients Planning 270

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

The recently released Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey showed a record number of participants who intend to cut US exposure, as shown in the chart below. The language is very similar to what Powell used to say back in 2022 and 2023, when they were raising rates. to above 4.6% (thankfully, it didn’t go higher than 4.2%).

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 78

Wealth Management

JULY 1, 2025

Number 8860726. In 2022, Parthenon hired Miles as its chief executive when it bought RSM’s wealth management business and renamed it Choreo. Registered in England & Wales with number 01835199, registered office 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG.

Wealth Management 184

Wealth Management Estate Planning Planning Clients 184

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

You’ll remember as I came into the Fed, I started the very beginning of, of 2023 in December of 2022. The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. I think number one. Yeah, Barry, thanks for having me on. Look, I called the Golden Path.

Economy 157

Economy Economics Food Banking 157

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty-seven consecutive months (with revisions). Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 204

Clients Numbers Economics Investments 204

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. The hiring rate, which is the number of hires as a percent of the labor force, has fallen to 3.3%, the slowest pace since 2013 (outside of the Covid months). It was strong even in 2022 and 2023, which was another clue that a recession wasnt imminent.

Marketing 75

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 75

A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Every year I update long-term return numbers for all of my various spreadsheets for charts, graphs, tables and such.1 The last couple of years have seen strong returns (+26% and +25%, respectively) so I noticed the long-run number was ticking up. After the bloodbath in 2022, the long-term annual return was 9.6%.

Numbers 145

Numbers Marketing Marketing 145

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

This current bull market is nearly 26 months old and is now up more than 70% from the mid-October 2022 lows. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). Looking at the evidence, we dont think so.

Marketing 69

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 69

Validea

JUNE 13, 2025

Carlisle’s approach is built around a central insight: stocks aren’t just tickers or abstract numbers—they’re ownership stakes in real businesses. After a tough stretch in 2022–2024, it is the top-performing Validea portfolio in 2025 YTD , up 25.7% Notably: It soared in 2009 , returning 153.9% for the S&P 500. for the S&P 500.

Valuation 52

Valuation Portfolio Investments Investing 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 2, 2025

I don't mean just see and digest the numbers but when something looks eyepoppingly good, too good, I would try to understand why it was so good, or bad maybe, and try to assess whether that result has any reasonable chance of being repeatable. If I had gotten a real answer I would have asked the same for 2022.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Assets Management Banking 59

The Big Picture

JULY 1, 2025

Very unusual number of years in a row. I had no idea private equity was putting up those sort of numbers back then. 00:36:59 [Speaker Changed] So, so I mentioned the 10 years, about four and a half percent today, go back before 2022. European Central Bank has cut rates recently a number of times. Right, right.

Investing 144

Investing Investments Consulting Insurance 144

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 5, 2025

In 2022, it was up 104 basis points (total return). but it was low in 2022 when it mattered. Basically, any backtest involving managed futures will look fantastic, but the experience of actually owning managed futures is painful because the strategy loses 70% of the time, his number. The results were fascinating.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Assets Management Government 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 2, 2025

If you play with the numbers, it outperforms over the long term and obviously it is a smoother ride. If the idea is a smoother ride with 75/50 then we should be trying avoiding being overly vulnerable one one alternative hitting the skids in a year like 2022. Back to the inflation numbers.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Numbers Taxes Clients 59

FMG

MAY 30, 2025

The Numbers That Matter Advisor adoption skyrocketed : 61% increase in texting platform adoption year-over-year, with usage continuing to accelerate each month. Client feedback was overwhelmingly positive, with many asking why texting wasn’t available sooner.

Communication 52

Communication Financial Advisor Clients Compliance 52

Wealth Management

JULY 15, 2025

Number 8860726. The client was concerned about how Calcote had his non-publicly listed cell number, but she purportedly called a week later and offered a $3,500 signing bonus to move to Wells Fargo. Registered in England & Wales with number 01835199, registered office 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG.

Clients 179

Clients Estate Planning Wealth Management Planning 179

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 4, 2025

The reported three year return number was not good but the consequence was opportunity cost as opposed to permanently impairing capital. The levered portfolio did slightly worse in 2022 but not catastrophically worse despite UPRO falling 56% and TYD falling 43%. VettaFi has info on GTAA even though it closed in 2017.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Numbers Management Taxes 59

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

If you’re well above this number, you can be fairly sure job growth is positive. If you’re at this number, like right now (and also seeing downward momentum), we can’t be sure the economy is actually creating any net jobs. This was a big reason why we didn’t call for a recession anytime between 2022 and 2024.

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69