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At the Money: Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President on Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Big Picture

The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. So you got a number of positive supply shocks that are exactly what allowed for the immaculate disinflation, which the people who thought that was impossible use that phrase mockingly. I think number one.

Economy 157
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Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Gets the “Good News Is Bad News” Treatment

Carson Wealth

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful.

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Market Commentary: Swift Election Results Boost Investors’ Confidence

Carson Wealth

Many noted how the 2022 midterms came in much closer to expectations and that maybe this time so would the presidential election, but this is yet another election involving President Trump that saw his eventual numbers come in better than expected, similar to 2016 and 2020. Productivity is at some of the best levels since the late ‘90s.

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Tuesday links: building capacity

Abnormal Returns

papers.ssrn.com) Economy National home builder confidence fell to one of its lowest levels since 2012. calculatedriskblog.com) Tariff front running is washing out of the economic numbers. (fastcompany.com) People need to be nudged to engage in salary negotiations. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Monday linkfest.

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Transcript: Lisa Shalett, CIO Morgan Stanley

The Big Picture

Lisa Shallet, chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley has had a number of fascinating roles in Wall Street, which is kind of amusing considering she had no interest in working on Wall Street, and yet she was CEO and chairman at Sanford Bernstein. I was traveling and on an airplane all the time. So I took the plunge, I quit.

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Market Commentary: Why You Shouldn’t Fear New Highs

Carson Wealth

You see, new highs happen in clusters that can last a decade plus, but the flipside is many years can also occur without any new highs, like when we saw a total of 13 new all-time highs in the 12 calendar years from 2000 through 2012. These aren’t particularly concerning inflation numbers, at least as far as the Fed is concerned.

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Transcript: Neil Dutta, RenMac

The Big Picture

Why it’s so important to put stuff into context that investors can use to focus on not just merely the economic data, but what it means for different sectors of the economy, what it means for different companies. He was like the guy, like number one in ii right. I always find Neil fascinating to listen to. So, you know, right.

Economics 157