Meb Faber Research

JULY 20, 2025

At around 25% of the total, or approximately $30 trillion, the US is the world’s dominant economy. However, many investors assume the share of the pie is much bigger. Likewise, if you ask investors what share of GDP do the emerging markets represent, 90% underestimate that emerging markets are a MAJORITY of global GDP.

Economy

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

It is the most for a Republican President since 1988, but it trails the 365 (2008) and 332 (2012) President Obama won in his two elections. How the economy is doing, Fed policy, inflation, valuations and overall market trends potentially matter much more. The services sector (which makes up more than 60% of our economy) is very strong.

Marketing

Zoe Financial

APRIL 7, 2025

I ntra-year drop: Markets are down ~1819% this year high, but still within historical norms: 2022: 25% 2020 (COVID): 34% 2008 (financial crisis): 49% Volatility spike: VIX rose above 45 one of the highest on record. Economies and markets fluctuate. Earnings risk: Public companies may adjust profit forecasts if tariffs are enforced.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 21, 2025

Presidents receive too much credit and blame for the economy! But it worth looking at the current state of the economy. economy that President Donald Trump is set to inherit While the U.S. economy in the later part of 2024 was in a strong position. From economist Ernie Tedeschi: Benchmarking the U.S.

Economy

Validea

APRIL 14, 2025

In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today’s market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification.

Investments

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 23, 2024

Notably, there was no SCR in 2000 and 2008, not the best times for investors, and potentially a major warning that something wasnt right. In short, the economy and markets are looking at elevated interest rates over the next two years. These long-term interest rates matter a lot for the economy.

Marketing

Investing Caffeine

MAY 1, 2025

was exiting the Vietnam War Economy was undergoing a major recession Watergate scandal and presidential resignation 9% unemployment The Arab Oil Embargo Surging inflation The medias response? COVID-19 Pandemic (2020) With over 3 million deaths worldwide and a grinding halt to the global economy, markets initially fell roughly -35%.

Media

Carson Wealth

JULY 10, 2025

The Carson Proprietary Leading Economic Index (LEI) indicates the economy is growing close to trend, with no broad and deep deterioration of economic activity. Can you share examples of how you’ve guided clients through past downturns, like in 2008 and 2020? How do you personalize risk tolerance for individual clients?

Risk Tolerance

The Big Picture

MAY 20, 2025

A a paper that caught my attention was following 2008 and this paper took a look at all hedge funds that reported to be market neutral. But when you really needed it in a downturn of 2008, the beta was 0.4. Our closest competitors to global opportunities have done a much better job than quote market neutral funds did back in 2008.

Management

Carson Wealth

JUNE 30, 2025

That’s one reason why the 2008–2009 recession was as bad as it was—households were much more levered and when unemployment rose and home prices fell, everything crashed. The greater the leverage, the harder the crash (like in 2008-2009). It was 101% at the end of 2019, and 137% just before the financial crisis in 2007.

Marketing

Investing Caffeine

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Consider the following tailwinds benefitting the new president: Strong Economy: The broadest measurement of economic activity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), registered a healthy +2.8% growth rate for Q3 Resilient Jobs Market: The just-reported unemployment rate of 4.1% today is representative of a strong but slowing job market.

Economy

Investing Caffeine

DECEMBER 2, 2024

As you can see from the chart below , the stock market is priced at levels not seen since 2001 and valuations are roughly double what they were at the lows of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Marketing

Dear Mr. Market

MAY 29, 2025

Peter Schiff Gold Bug and Fed Critic Extraordinaire Ongoing theme : Hyperinflation is coming, the dollar will collapse, and the Fed is destroying the economy. Famous for : Correctly predicting the 2008 housing collapse. Reality : The S&P 500 has gained significantly since that call, with markets hitting new highs in 2025.

Media

The Big Picture

JULY 15, 2025

But in 2008 in the financial crisis, I turned 50. That’s the sort of stuff you, 00:23:21 [Speaker Changed] And, and it was the kind of thing where, you know, certainly on the private client side, for those of you to remember, you know, in, in 2008, 9, 10, 11, 12, the story was all about bonds, bonds, bonds, bonds, bonds.

Numbers

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Chinas economy remains a long-term force, but recent struggles in real estate, regulatory uncertainty, and slowing growth giveAustriathe edge.Austriahas close ties to Central and Eastern Europe, positioning it well for economic recovery in the region.

Investing

Carson Wealth

JULY 11, 2025

Rising Deficits Have Boosted Profits in the Past Over the long run, market returns are mostly driven by profit growth, which depends on the economy. It’s the net result of saving and consumption by four sectors of the economy: households, businesses, governments, and the rest of the world via trade. Still, it can explain a lot.

Taxes

The Big Picture

APRIL 29, 2025

00:11:32 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it, it happened because of another crisis In 2008, the, the great financial crisis ING had had gotten overexposed in, in, in mortgages and had to take a loan from the Dutch state to shore up their tier one capital ratios. So 2008, you know, as you remember, Barry fourth quarter was chaotic.

Management

Investing Caffeine

JULY 1, 2025

Economy Resilient Despite Tariffs and Geopolitical Turmoil Source: Calafia Beach Pundit Credit Default Swaps ( CDS ) act as insurance contracts that protect investors against corporate debt defaults. During financial stress—like the 2008 crisis or the COVID crash in 2020—CDS prices surge as investors seek protection.

Marketing

Truemind Capital

APRIL 11, 2025

The world order started changing in 2008 when significant quantitative easing (QE) – money printing and near-zero interest rates, was announced by major central banks led by the US Fed during the subprime crisis. Running the economy on steroids has its repercussions. We know this led to inflation all over the world.

Asset Allocation

Carson Wealth

APRIL 28, 2025

But what if demand craters across the economy and you’re stuck with goods you can’t sell? Congress also provides a cushion for the economy by raising deficits even further via tax cuts. Still, the economy chugs along around 1-2% real GDP growth. Do you keep hiring? Do you let people go to raise cashflow?

Marketing

Dear Mr. Market

NOVEMBER 22, 2024

Dear Mr. Market: Normally we write you letters about the markets or the economy…but what’s all that worth if your assets are not protected or properly positioned for what you intended them to do? The following article is penned by a guest author and Long Beach estate planner, Curtis Kaiser.

Estate Planning

Investing Caffeine

MARCH 3, 2025

In my more than three decades of investing, I have repeatedly encountered extensive segments of the financial markets that would qualify as speculative bubbles, whether it was subprime mortgages and credit default swaps (CDS) in the 2008 Financial Crisis, or dot-com companies in the 2000 bursting of the technology bubble.

Assets

The Better Letter

JANUARY 10, 2025

stocks, which faced major drawdowns around the turn of the century (the “tech wreck”) and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09. In 2008, Citigroup’s stock price dropped almost 80 percent. The broader economy matters. The ten-year period between 2000 and 2009 is often called a “lost decade” for U.S.

Numbers

The Big Picture

MAY 19, 2025

This set the stage for the lockdowns to begin in earnest and tipped the global economy into shutdown mode. Feel free to debate renaming libraries or taking down statues all you want, but close the global economy in a way that dramatically slashes corporate revenue and profits without addressing the impact of what you’ve done?

Marketing

The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

Top seeds have only lost to 16 seeds twice in the seeded era – since 1979 – and both occurrences are recent (that said, 2008 was the only year all four top seeds made the Final Four). Motoyuki Mabuchi went all-in with four aces in the main event hand of the 2008 World Series of Poker but lost to Justin Phillips’ royal flush.

Numbers

Zoe Financial

APRIL 28, 2025

Recession Risk: Risk exists, but no major imbalances like in 2008. Economies and markets fluctuate. Consumer Health: Debt service as % of income remains low. Unemployment : Still historically low, though trending slightly up. Interest rates above 4%, unlike post-COVID zero rate environment.

Marketing

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2025

Economy : American consumers are not yet seeing much evidence of the drastic changes President Trump has made on trade. Big Money pros are more anxious now than during the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the 2008-09 financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic. But they are on their way.(

Valuation

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 17, 2025

But it, it, summer of 2008, as you can imagine, was a really interesting time, particularly for the convertible bond desk because we were the busiest desk. As other parts of the market were closed, literally shutting down the convertible debt market was one of the last ones to remain open before September, 2008.

Investing

The Big Picture

MARCH 11, 2025

But their models just simply don’t allow them to understanding a dynamic changing global, interconnected economy. Worse in 2008, that wasn’t the case at all. And it does so across real economy risks, think recession, but also sort of longer term growth. You cannot accurately forecast the economy.

Economics

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 22, 2023

Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag). The economy is mixed to good, with 2/3rd of states expanding and 1/3rd of states slowing; Dropping from +96 to -22 is a substantial decrease, regardless of the high GDP print last Q.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.

Economy

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 16, 2024

redfin.com) Household mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP has been dropping since 2008. ft.com) Economy How's the consumer doing? newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media How is India's economy doing? (wsj.com) Housing Baby boomers are holding onto their large houses. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.

Financial Advising

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

The economy is slowing, and some states are doing great, some okay, some less so. Coincident Index by States (May 22, 2008). The specifics are noteworthy: -Over the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, making a one-month diffusion index of -4.

Economy