Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 28, 2024

When they talked about portfolio allocations he said they want to have enough in managed futures to have an impact on the portfolio. Portfolio 1 as follows Portfolio 2 is 50% VOO and 50% iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF). Portfolio 1 is 0.06, VOO/IEF is 0.61 We looked at a similar chart the other day.

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The Better Letter

JANUARY 2, 2025

William Priest, chairman, co-chief investment officer, and a portfolio manager at TD Epoch, picked Meta (+66 percent), which handily beat the S&P 500, but his other four picks did not. In 2007, Steve Ballmer, then the CEO of Microsoft, said , “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 2, 2024

If you put 3% into Ariba Networks into a diversified portfolio in 2000 or bought a house you could comfortably afford in 2007 then you had a setback but weren't blown up. I posted the above joke on Bluesky a few days ago. This person will get blown up if anything bad ever happens, absolutely destroyed.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 28, 2025

If you have a taxable portfolio of at least $1 million where selling or rebalancing would hit very hard tax-wise, you can exchange your portfolio for shares in a 351 ETF. We build portfolios here all the time with similar return profiles but with less volatility. 351's are kind of like 1031 exchanges in real estate.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 1, 2025

Barron's has an article about how to protect your portfolio , er sort of. Basically, after a couple of quotes from William Bengen, father of the 4% rule, about his tactical portfolio currently being 37% allocated to equities, there are a couple of suggestions from William Bernstein about just having less equity exposure. Portfolio No.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

When you get it wrong, it crushes your retirement plans. My own track record at making big calls is pretty damned good, but none of our clients wants me slinging around their retirement monies based on my gut instinct. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures. By then, we began to have meaningful assets in our savings/retirement accounts and the bear markets had a bigger economic impact on those finances.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Barron's had an article about rebalancing portfolios noting that the run in stocks was a good time to rebalance the equity allocation back down closer to target, whatever that might be and also rebalance down some of the relative winners. Over the years, I've trimmed here and there when holdings get too big relative to the portfolio.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 15, 2022

So it is with portfolio construction. The basic, most elementary portfolio construction is 60/40 equity/fixed income. Yahoo Finance has the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX), a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio, down 22.6% Anything unique that an incident calls for builds off the basics. this year versus down 24.8%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 5, 2024

Starting back in 2007 or 2008 I wrote about his barbell portfolio idea that goes very high risk with 10% of the portfolio in search of asymmetric returns and then very conservative with the other 90%. The returns generated from the 10% could almost be enough for the entire portfolio. Here's an example of the effect.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. And when you think about market timing was 2007 the best time to — to make a move, but it ended up being a perfect time actually long-term for — for my career. BITTERLY MICHELL: Always risk.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 22, 2024

There is a secondary, more subtle point that relates to portfolio construction and portfolio theory as we discuss here and as I have implemented into client accounts. Back in 2006 and 2007 there were far fewer funds available to help offset large stock market declines.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I built two version of this allocation with the only difference being that in Portfolio 1, for private equity I used Apollo Asset Management (APO) and in Portfolio 2 I used the Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP). Portfolio 3 is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio.

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The Irrelevant Investor

JUNE 15, 2019

Automatic enrollment has tripled since 2007. Outside of a retirement account, I see nothing wrong with holding six months of living expenses or something like this. Inside a retirement account, I can't think of a good reason why 9% of your portfolio should be earning next to nothing. This is a beautiful chart.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 18, 2022

More interesting than the articles sometimes are the comments as was the case today with the following comment: What is really wacky is the Modern Portfolio Theory promoted use of bonds in a portfolio.ballast (or theoretical risk-reducing agent). Small allocations don't become impediments to portfolio growth, simply they are laggards.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Based on the title, it would seem to be in the neighborhood of creating an all-weather portfolio which we've looked at in several different forms over the course of my full 19 years of blogging.

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The S&P 500 fell an eventual 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, and finally ending the global financial crisis (GFC) bear market. Retirement funds had been demolished and there was very little hope. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 3, 2024

Basically you allocate most of a portfolio to beta, plainer vanilla, not necessarily just Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) but you could and then add some sort of alpha seeking strategy on top of the beta. The fund has been around since 2007. This typically means incorporating leverage one way or another.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 3, 2023

There are enough incidences here though that anyone buying these should expect that they are adding a lot of volatility to their portfolios. It's total return CAGR going back to 2007 was +5.29% and price-only was -3.50%. I'd have thought there'd be a lot that would have fallen 30% but based on a casual glance, it wasn't that bad.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 12, 2024

Or you could look at the 2007 high which was within a few points of the 2000 high and say it took 12 years to double. Since we cannot know the path, this really spotlights a couple of important portfolio management concepts. If nothing else, it will make for some fun portfolio theory blogging when the track record is a little longer.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2024

Usually a replication strategy will build a portfolio based on reported hedge fund holdings filed on a 13f or in the case of managed futures will sample maybe the ten biggest futures markets believing they can get 90% (or some high number) of the full effect, do it for cheaper such that the cost advantage ends up being the difference in performance.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 16, 2025

Locking in for ten years at 4.50%-5% (this was 2006 and early 2007) made no sense to me. For me, bonds are about mitigating the volatility from the equity portion of the portfolio, the portion where I do want capital gains to come from. The quadrant inspired portfolio above will hopefully be more resilient in times of strife.

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Nationwide Financial

JUNE 5, 2023

A recent survey from the Nationwide Retirement Institute® uncovered topics business owners are looking to discuss including economic pressures and business-specific challenges such as access to capital, the tight labor market, employee benefits, and supply chain disruptions. Many are actively seeking the guidance of a financial professional.

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Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). (It’s the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess?

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

If you’re at all interested in focused portfolios, the concept of quality as a sub-sector under value and just how you build a portfolio and a track record, that’s tough to beat. Dick Mayo was a traditional, I’d say portfolio, strong portfolio manager focused on US stocks. He’s a big picture guy.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 18, 2023

In the short run, there can be distortions in public market valuations as we saw in 2001 and we saw prior to that in 2007, and prior to that in 2000, in ‘99. How do you use all of this data that’s generated by all of your portfolio companies to navigate the world at large? BARATTA: Yeah. In the long run. We can’t do that.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 8, 2023

Years ago, maybe 2007, I said no to being a partner at my firm. My blogging evolved a lot over the last 12 months into a lot more of what I would call portfolio theory with the capital efficiency and return stacking stuff. The work episode helped me better understand how much value I place on simplicity. The reasoning was very simple.

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Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

We like to look at the “prime-age” (25-54 years) employment-population ratio, since it gets around definitional issues that crop up with the unemployment rate (someone is counted as being “unemployed” only if they’re “actively looking for a job”) or demographics (an aging population with more people retiring and leaving the labor force every day).

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 24, 2024

A few days ago I bagged on a strategist from Vanguard for telling investors to stick with bonds in a 60/40 portfolio allocation. In that post we put together a 60/10/10/10/10 portfolio with just 10% to bonds and the other 10% sleeves into different alts that each represented uncorrelated return streams.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 5, 2024

The Permanent Portfolio-inspired Cambria Trinity ETF (TRTY) allocates 35% to trend. Saying TRTY is Permanent Portfolio-inspired is my impression, I don't know that Meb has ever described it that way. It made me feel even luckier to have stumbled across the strategy back in 2007. Meb is a huge believer in trend.

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Trade Brains

OCTOBER 4, 2022

In this article, we bring you some top stocks under Rs 2000 that you can consider including in your portfolio. . During his tenure, he scaled the bank multi-fold and became the longest-serving managing director of a private Indian bank till his retirement in 2020. . Is it some fascination with ‘2016’s aaj raat se….’ 852,000 EPS (Rs.)

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. By the time I got there in ’92, they had a great venture portfolio and almost nobody else even understood what venture capital was. This is the summer of 2007.

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The Irrelevant Investor

JANUARY 19, 2019

Walter Cabot, the new portfolio manager, wrote: Times change. Portfolio managers would no longer rapidly trade these growth stocks, instead they would invest in blue chips like IBM and Disney, and no price was too rich. With people living longer than ever, we need to expect and be prepared to fund a long retirement.

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The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

But what was interesting about that was the quick need to both separate the portfolio between the old stuff and the new stuff, because there were a lot of new investment opportunities. So we have our MAS team, our Multi-Asset Solutions team, who are really providing more of the overall portfolio advice. RITHOLTZ: Really intriguing.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. The working answer here has been no.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 24, 2024

And this is how I tested it Both Portfolio 1 which I'd say is the truer version and version 2 increased proportionally do a little better than VBAIX but with slightly higher volatility. I wrote about them a couple of times, ages ago including here at TheStreet.com in 2007. AOR is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio.

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