Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 1, 2025

Actually, the lost decade up until the end of 2007 was pretty good for this concept using 25% into ULPIX instead of SSO. All three are from late 2007 and talk about me calling it a bear market and defensive action I was starting to take. The second backtest also cuts out the lost decade of the 2000's.

Retirement 52

Retirement Portfolio Clients Assets 52

Wealth Management

JULY 18, 2025

Number 8860726. Over 57 million individuals are currently over age 65, and that number will climb to an estimated 88 million by 2060. 2 These individuals often face chronic conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease, which affects more than 6 million Americans, a number that’s projected to triple by 2050. Since 2007, the U.S.

Estate Planning 137

Estate Planning Wealth Management Planning Clients 137

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. By then, we began to have meaningful assets in our savings/retirement accounts and the bear markets had a bigger economic impact on those finances.

Marketing 335

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 335

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

Schroders ) • The Exact Age When You Make Your Best Financial Decisions There’s a magic number for when your expertise and cognitive powers align. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing. 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. So doesn’t it make sense to cut risk and stick to the safety of cash?

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 15, 2022

For a little context, from the S&P 500's peak in October 2007 to the low in March 2009 when the index dropped 55%, VBAIX was down 37%. The 4% rule is of course the most basic, most elementary rule of thumb for sustainable withdrawals in retirement. this year versus down 24.8% for the S&P 500. The 4% rule was based on this too.

Engineering 98

Engineering Portfolio Retirement Numbers 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

When I first was using a managed futures fund for clients, so talking 2007 or so, I stumbled into the idea that part of the past success came from interest earned on T-bills. Managed futures goes long and short some number of futures contracts that are collateralized by cash and cash equivalents like very short term T-bills.

Assets 74

Assets Clients Management Accounting 74

The Irrelevant Investor

JUNE 15, 2019

Automatic enrollment has tripled since 2007. These numbers are pretty encouraging. The biggest takeaway for me here is the cash number. Outside of a retirement account, I see nothing wrong with holding six months of living expenses or something like this. That number fell to 19% in 2018. This is a beautiful chart.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Retirement Accounting Distribution 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I wasn’t that typical person that did a number of, you know, internships during the summer, had that …. At Citi, in 2007, fantastic timing, you take over as Head of Structured Solutions. And so, 2007, I came over to Citi. BITTERLY MICHELL: … difficult situations for those who were retiring, right, and those ….

Clients 293

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 293

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 5, 2024

Starting back in 2007 or 2008 I wrote about his barbell portfolio idea that goes very high risk with 10% of the portfolio in search of asymmetric returns and then very conservative with the other 90%. The numbers for Portfolios 1 and 3 add up to 105% because I am replicating 5% into a 2x bitcoin fund.

Portfolio 91

Portfolio Retail Investing Investments 91

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 3, 2023

The basic mechanics of CEFs is they are exchange traded but unlike ETFs which create or redeem shares based on money coming and going, CEFs have a fixed number of shares so open market buying and selling can cause the market price of the fund to deviate widely from the net asset value (NAV), the actual value of the holdings.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Accounting Numbers Taxes 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 7, 2023

I am too conservative on this front so don't take my advice on a number of months, but going with what makes you sleep easier, feel bulletproof is a good idea. The importance of an emergency fund, outside of a 401k or IRA can't be overstated. Forget about rules of thumb, three months or six months, go with what makes you comfortable.

Planning 73

Planning Management Investing Investments 73

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 3, 2024

The fund has been around since 2007. But this example means that some or all of the "extra" 50% could be deployed across alpha seeking strategies like maybe some sort of stock picking, long short or any number of alternative strategies with whatever amount of money the account holder felt was prudent.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Accounting Numbers Taxes 52

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). (It’s the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess?

Marketing 53

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investing 53

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Remember, the peak in the S&P 500 in October, 2007 was 1565. Going back to the above, risk and volatility become much easier to endure when you know that your cash needs for x number of months are all set and you truly understand that bear markets end and eventually there will be a new high even if that takes longer than you'd like.

Asset Allocation 74

Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Assets 74

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

We like to look at the “prime-age” (25-54 years) employment-population ratio, since it gets around definitional issues that crop up with the unemployment rate (someone is counted as being “unemployed” only if they’re “actively looking for a job”) or demographics (an aging population with more people retiring and leaving the labor force every day).

Marketing 72

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2024

Usually a replication strategy will build a portfolio based on reported hedge fund holdings filed on a 13f or in the case of managed futures will sample maybe the ten biggest futures markets believing they can get 90% (or some high number) of the full effect, do it for cheaper such that the cost advantage ends up being the difference in performance.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Management 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

Or at least the top, pick a number, 30, 40%. SEIDES: John Yeah, I said back then, the bet started in 2007 and I say today, being in the market and investing in hedge funds is completely apples and oranges. This is the summer of 2007. RITHOLTZ: 2007. I don’t remember the number. So back in 2007.

Management 130

Management Investing Investments Government 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 24, 2024

From May 2007 to when it bottomed in March 2009, it fell 60%. The 2022 number was a little better than the Aggregate Bond Index but I think comes up short in the context of offsetting equity market volatility. I believe the first dividend ETF was the iShares Dividend Select ETF (DVY).

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Taxes Numbers Marketing 52

The Big Picture

APRIL 18, 2023

In the short run, there can be distortions in public market valuations as we saw in 2001 and we saw prior to that in 2007, and prior to that in 2000, in ‘99. You know, we bought Hilton in June of 2007. BARATTA: Yeah. In the long run. So, yes, you’re right, like, in the long run, fundamentals drive, determine share prices.

Assets 157

Assets Investing Investments Valuation 157

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 17, 2015

But by discovering a large number of minor inefficiencies and blending them into a single trading program, Renaissance built a system that racked up profits year after year, especially during periods of turbulence. By the time Simons retired, in 2009, he had become a billionaire many times over.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Assets Recruitment 52

The Better Letter

APRIL 6, 2023

Realistic Retirement Planning My children have consistently (and kindly) remarked about how grateful they are to have been able to graduate (with honors) from fine universities without any debt. Our retirement planning took a hit to do so. Thanks for reading. However, achieving that goal came at a cost.

Retirement Planning 105

Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Nonprofit 105

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

He co-chairs a number of the asset management investment committees. So I interviewed with a bunch of banks, got a number of job offers by the end of the week, and joined Goldman Sachs in October 1998. I ended up being hired onto the high yield desk as a research analyst and did that for a number of years, a couple of years.

Assets 293

Assets Clients Investing Investments 293

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. We can start with Barron's which suggests it is time to "buy bonds" as the "60/40 bounces back."

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Math Assets Retirement 74

The Irrelevant Investor

DECEMBER 2, 2020

I looked at the box office numbers, but that doesn't tell the full story. Kleinfeld was coked out of his mind" Sexy Beast, 2000 An ex-hitman tries to retire, but his boss won't let him. Alpha Dog, 2007 A drug dealer is owed money from one of his customers, so he decides to kidnap his brother and hold him for ransom.

Retirement 52

Retirement Banking Numbers 52

The Better Letter

MARCH 30, 2023

Gather a group of people and show them a jar that contains equal numbers of $1, $5, $20, and $100 bills. Passer Ratings decline with every round of the draft except the sixth, the numbers for which are skewed by Brady. However, that only happens with a very large number of players pooling their resources.

Numbers 84

Numbers Investing Investments Accounting 84

The Better Letter

FEBRUARY 8, 2024

Brady is now retired as a seven-time Super Bowl champion, five-time Super Bowl MVP, 15-time Pro Bowler, and three-time NFL MVP. Passer Ratings decline with every round of the draft except the sixth, the numbers for which are skewed by Brady. However, that only happens with a very large number of players pooling their resources.

Numbers 96

Numbers Education Management Math 96

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

So, until the financial crisis of 2007 and 2009 or however you go — you actually time it, I was in this finance bubble. There’s no corporation that lives its healthy — unless they’re on their way to bankruptcy that lives with single digit equity numbers. So, that was that and then comes the financial crisis.

Banking 201

Banking Government Insurance Taxes 201

Brown Advisory

JUNE 12, 2017

In the last 10 years, 2007 through 2016, Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price compounded at roughly 9.3% Since May 2007, Buffett estimated Berkshire had compounded its intrinsic value at roughly 10%, but he thought 10% would be difficult to achieve in the next decade if interest rates stay as low as they are currently.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Ethics Taxes 52

Brown Advisory

JUNE 12, 2017

In the last 10 years, 2007 through 2016, Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price compounded at roughly 9.3% Since May 2007, Buffett estimated Berkshire had compounded its intrinsic value at roughly 10%, but he thought 10% would be difficult to achieve in the next decade if interest rates stay as low as they are currently.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Ethics Taxes 52

The Big Picture

JULY 11, 2023

” Who are the number one users of TurboTax? And you see that in the numbers, right? You have half the number of public companies that you had in 2000. Jim is now retired, but I know his son Patrick took over. RITHOLTZ: And we end up, you know, importing a decent number of engineers from the best Indian schools.

Management 217

Management Assets Investing Investments 217

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And I literally put the entire Schedule A, which is the pricing square footage unit numbers in a Hewlett Packard 41B using bit mapping. Everybody knew the number but the appraiser. MILLER: The term back then was, here’s a good appraiser, good in air quotes and good translated into making the number. Just keep it fair.

Sales 130

Sales Numbers Taxes Marketing 130

The Better Letter

JANUARY 12, 2023

And, in 2007, Alan Greenspan foresaw double-digit interest rates to combat an inflationary surge that is only becoming real 16 years later. ” As my friend Morgan Housel has explained , “Every forecast takes a number from today and multiplies it by a story about tomorrow.” El Ingeniero. RIP, Adolfo Kaminsky.

Economy 121

Economy Economics CFP Management 121

The Big Picture

APRIL 11, 2023

DAMODARAN: I am interested in numbers. I’m naturally a numbers person. To me, storytelling is much more — I mean, if you think about the history of humanity, for thousands of years, the way we pass down information was with stories, not numbers. It has allowed for this acceleration of number crunching.

Valuation 292

Valuation Education Numbers Government 292

The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 9, 2018

These numbers are so incomprehensibly large that they lack any meaning. The median retirement account balance of people ages 56 to 61 is just $25,000. Whatever else happened, retired policemen and firefighters and teachers would be paid. It's like saying that Pluto is 4.67 billion miles away from the earth. The top 0.1%

Economics 52

Economics Distribution Investing Investments 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2022

And I was kind of intrigued and so I said, can we discuss it, and he laid it out on a conference table and I said, what’s this number? And then I said, what’s this number down here, and he said, this is last year’s earnings. And that number was $160 million. I said, no, that couldn’t be right.

Government 318

Government Banking Numbers Investing 318

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

00:07:47 [Speaker Changed] So, so after, you know, more than 20 years at Goldman, you joined the New York Fed in 2007, overseeing domestic and foreign exchange trading operations, 2007, that, that’s some timing. Well, I had about I seven months of calm and then chaos started in August of 2007.

Economy 144

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 144

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2023

That’s a shocking number. I think there’s a number we have in the book, maybe $70 million or something in fees to take care of. In 2007, firms extracted — the private equity firms extracted $20 billion from companies in the form of dividend recapitalizations. RITHOLTZ: Really, that’s a big number.

Insurance 144

Insurance Healthcare Retail Medicine 144