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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

2000s : Kept rates too low for too long following 9/11 and dotcom implosion – FOMC Rate did not get over 1% until 2004. 2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. 2010s : Remained on emergency footing post GFC for far too long – left rates at 0 until December 2015.

Banking 336
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Avoid the Unforced Investment Errors Even Billionaires Make

The Big Picture

Duration and leverage issues are well known, but lets discuss adding risk: In 2004, I walked into my offices conference room to hear a rep from Lehman Brothers pitch a higher-yielding fixed income product: AAA-rated, safe as Treasuries, but yielding 200-300 basis points more. All of these strategies have been money-losers this century.

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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298
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MiB: Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI on Growth, Employment and Inflation Cycles

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. He serves on the board of governors for the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. In 2004, he co-authored Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy.

Economics 182
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Weekly Economic Snapshot: Solid Jobs Amid GDP Contraction & Crashing Confidence

Advisor Perspectives

Last week's economic data arrived against the backdrop of a buoyant stock market enjoying a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004.a

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Pix vs. Flix

The Big Picture

When any new economic release comes out, you really don’t know how much is noise and how much is signal. Economic data is especially noisy, subject to revision, and based on models that are “ wrong but useful.” If you learn how to properly frame data, you can avoid errors of this kind. Since this rhymes, it has to be true!

Economics 130
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Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By Goldman Sachs : Goldman Sachs has been serving clients in India since the 1980s and established an onshore presence in Bengaluru, in 2004, Mumbai, India in December 2006 and a new office in Hyderabad opened in 2021 following a ten-year joint venture. EPS (TTM) 27.39 Stock P/E (TTM) 28.83 RoE 22.21% RoCE 27.2%