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America’s Enormous Math Mistake’s Mistake

The Big Picture

Call it ” ‘ America’s Enormous Math Mistake’s Mistake. For the record, Census published its first study on the valuation of so-called “in-kind transfer benefits” in 1982. Since 2008, the Census Bureau has included government transfers in its Supplemental Poverty Measure. ” Was this ignorance?

Math 246
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10 Biggest Ideas in “How NOT to Invest”

The Big Picture

Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. We evolved in an arithmetic world, so we are unprepared for the exponential math of finance. Investing is simple but hard, and therein lies our challenge. Bad Numbers : 4.

Investing 317
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Tuesday links: paying for the news

Abnormal Returns

Fund management There is no escaping the math on leveraged ETFs. techcrunch.com) Musk SpaceX could soon be the world's most valuable startup with a $350 billion valuation. techcrunch.com) Musk SpaceX could soon be the world's most valuable startup with a $350 billion valuation.

Math 144
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

institutionalinvestor.com) Putting a valuation on Instacart ($CART). aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). (tonyisola.com) Leveraged loans have put corporate bonds to shame in 2023. wsj.com) The life of a short-seller, even when proven correct, is no easy thing. morningstar.com)

Math 273
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Avoid the Unforced Investment Errors Even Billionaires Make

The Big Picture

My advice was not based on fear of a bubble or the (over)valuation of Yahoo; rather, I suggested employing a regret minimization framework.2 These two possibilities a 10-fold increase versus a 90% drop are roughly symmetrical in terms of math (but probably not probabilities). Torn about what to do, he asked my opinion.

Investing 267
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Q&A: Your Money Map

The Big Picture

Compounding, Denominator Blindness, Survivorship Bias all affect our abilities to make good decisions about the future when even basic math is involved. I looked at Recession, Profits, Valuations, US Dollar, Geopolitics, Market crashes. What are some examples of bad numbers? So the follow up was: 7 Increasing Probabilities of Error.

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Valuation Math Suggests Difficult Markets In 2023

Advisor Perspectives

In 2023, the math of valuations suggests returns will likely be challenging as markets remain difficult to navigate.

Math 40