Sat.Jan 06, 2024 - Fri.Jan 12, 2024

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The Billionaires Income Tax Act and the Moore Case

Wealth Management

The ongoing case before the Supreme Court, which questions the constitutionality of taxing unrealized capital gains, holds significant implications for the future of wealth management.

Taxes 290
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Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024?

The Big Picture

What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random. Instead, I prefer to consider market history and recent data, and ask “What are the possible and probable outcomes for this year?” I find it very useful as an investor to be able to see both sides of the bull-bear debate.

Economy 331
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Some of the best charts of 2023. (entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Don't get caught sitting in cash in 2024. (allstarcharts.com) How major asset classes performed in December 2023. (capitalspectator.com) Good years tend to cluster for the stock market.

Assets 296
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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Data Management Platform OneAdvisory Raises $8M in Seed Funding

Wealth Management

In conjunction with the funding, which included investments from Ritholtz Wealth Management and Mariner, the company is also rebranding as Dispatch.

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MiB: Cathy Marcus, Co-CEO, Global COO of PGIM Real Estate

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Cathy Marcus , co-chief executive officer and global chief operating officer of PGIM Real Estate , which manages over $200 billion in assets. As co-CEO, Marcus develops and leads the company’s global strategy; as global COO, she is responsible for overseeing business and investment operations globally. She is also co-chair of the board of directors of RealAssetX , PGIM Real Estate’s innovation lab aimed at accelerating advancement in the real assets industry.

Startup 298

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Monday links: sowing and reaping

Abnormal Returns

Markets Six reasons to bullish. Six reasons to be bearish. (ritholtz.com) The 10 biggest FTSE 100 companies by market cap, over time. (ft.com) What you need to know about the spread on mortgage bonds. (housingbrief.com) Finance The spot Bitcoin ETF price war is already on. (axios.com) Property and casualty insurance providers are struggling to keep up with weather-related claims.

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Live from Heckerling: Increasing Diversity in Estate Planning, One Year Later

Wealth Management

Two fellowship participants share their experiences in the estate planning field.

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At the Money: Investor Incompetence

The Big Picture

At The Money: David Dunning professor of psychology at the University of Michigan ( Go Blue! ) (January 10, 2024) Investor incompetence might play a larger role in poor performance than you think. That’s thanks to a phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: David Dunning is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan.

Medical 290
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Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024 A brief excerpt: “If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.

Marketing 277
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The Hidden Science Behind Why Finance Teams Resist Change—And How to Fix It

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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Friday links: the dispersion of skill

Abnormal Returns

Markets Stocks don't always beat bonds. (morningstar.com) A visualization of the top 10 S&P 500 stocks by market cap. (politicalcalculations.blogspot.com) Strategy Bob Seawright, "We will never act with perfect foresight. We will rarely act with decent foresight." (betterletter.substack.com) You can't use P/E ratios to value growth stocks. (downtownjoshbrown.com) A lot of strategies just aren't worth the hassle.

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SEC Approves 11 Bitcoin ETFs

Wealth Management

The decision comes a day after the commission’s X handle was hacked, with someone falsely posting the SEC had decided to approve the funds.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 13-14)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Securities and Exchange Commission this week authorized 11 Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which could provide financial advisors and their clients with a convenient way to invest in the cryptocurrency without many of the security issues or price tracking challenges of other methods (though the new products will still be subject to Bitcoin's notorious price

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AAR: December Carloads and Intermodal Up YoY

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. U.S. railroads originated 11.70 million total carloads in 2023 — up 0.7% (81,504 carloads) over 2022 , up 0.7% (78,633 carloads) over 2021, and the most for a full year since 2019. For all of 2023, U.S. intermodal originations totaled 12.67 million containers and trailers — down 4.9% (657,165 units) from 2022 , down 9.6% (1.35 million) from 2021, and the lowest annual volume sinc

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Adviser links: advancing your business

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks adviser well-being with Stevyn Guinnip who is the founder of Grow Wellthy, a health and wellness consulting firm. (kitces.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talks with Julia Gurner about the power of working with a coach. (podcasts.apple.com) Career Why it's so important to invest in the next generation of advisers. (riaintel.com) Some things veteran advisers wished they knew when starting out including 'Run your business like a business.

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Fund Managers are Bullish on REITs in 2024

Wealth Management

With healthy property fundamentals and a favorable interest rate environment, REIT fund managers expect the sector to deliver double digit returns this year.

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Using ‘Magic Wand’ Questions To Help Clients Articulate Financial Needs And Goals (That They Otherwise Struggle To Express)

Nerd's Eye View

In initial discovery meetings, financial advisors face the challenge of eliciting specific goals from new clients – a crucial step for crafting a comprehensive financial plan. Asking direct queries may elicit vague responses like "I want to be on track for retirement", which tends to lack the detail needed to plan effectively and spark the client's motivation to actually accomplish those goals.

Clients 246
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Housing January 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week, Up 5.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.7% week-over-week. Inventory will likely decrease seasonally until the Spring. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 5th, inventory was at 499 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Research links: regime changes

Abnormal Returns

ERP Does new data put the idea of equity superiority, over bonds, into doubt? (morningstar.com) The risks that come along with a 100% U.S. equity portfolio, not least of which are behavioral. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Research What factors are appropriate for defensive investors? (alphaarchitect.com) Crowded trades increase crash risks. (alphaarchitect.com) How the sensitivity to interest rates of factors, and sectors, vary in the U.S.

Portfolio 275
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Spot Bitcoin ETF Race Kicks Off With a Fee War

Wealth Management

Spot Bitcoin ETFs like the 11 just approved by the SEC offer offer significant advantages over the earlier options for financial advisors seeking to access cryptocurrency exposure, according to CFRA's ETF analyst.

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#FA Success Ep 367: When Being In Business With Your Spouse Doesn’t Work Out And You Have To Start Over, With Kimberly Enders

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 367th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Kimberly Enders. Kimberly is the Lead Financial Planner and Managing Partner of Enders Wealth Management, a hybrid advisory firm based in Sterling Heights, Michigan, that oversees $50M in assets under management for 85 client households. What's unique about Kimberly, though, is that after building a practice jointly with her husband, in 2015, she had to reinvent herself after a divorce lef

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CPI Increase is Based on Bad Shelter Data

The Big Picture

I am popping out of book leave to just throw a few charts at you regarding the Inflation data for December. CPI came in a 0.3% versus 0.2% expected month over month. But the devil is in the details. BLS pointed to shelter as the source of the increase: “The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase.” In the real world, shelter measures were flat or negative.

Marketing 211
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Longform links: profound distrust

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Hannah Ritchie "Not the End of the World: How We can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet." (fasterplease.substack.com) An excerpt from "Silent Cavalry: How Union Soldiers from Alabama Helped Sherman Burn Atlanta — and Then Got Written Out of History" by Howell Raines. (washingtonpost.com) Technology Does the NY Times ($NYT) have a case against AI and OpenAI specifically?

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Cambridge Launches New RIA Acquisition Model

Wealth Management

The IBD has created a new RIA, BridgePort Financial Solutions, to execute on its flexible acquisition strategy; it launches with three transactions and $1 billion in assets under advisement.

Assets 299
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The Future Of Financial Advice: How Tech and Approaches In 2030 Will Differ From Today

Nerd's Eye View

Professional service industries tend to evolve over time as the regulatory environment evolves and new technologies emerge. For instance, the financial advice industry has seen many changes to regulations (for both advisors and their clients), advisor business models, and the advisor technology landscape. These changes all have the potential to change the industry by shifting the current focus on selling financial products (including financial plans themselves) to providing a more in-depth and p

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 202,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000 , a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Personal finance links: investment politicians

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Michael Mauboussin about why it is so hard to buck the crowd. (ritholtz.com) Claer Barrett talks with Morgan Housel about his book "Same As Ever." (ft.com) Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Jared Dillian about his new book "No Worries: How To Live a Stress-free Financial Life." (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Manisha Thakor about separating your self-worth from your net-worth.

Investing 268
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2024 will be the Year of the PEPs

Wealth Management

Record keepers are the biggest inhibitors to more extensive implentation of PEPs, or pooled employer plans.

Planning 299
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Adweek: MiB Best Business-to-Business Podcast!

The Big Picture

Hey, this is a really nice surprise: Masters in Business was the winner in the Best Business-to-Business Podcast. I am Thrilled and humbled to win anything! Here’s what Adweek says: “In a world of shrinking attention spans where long-form journalism is an endangered species, Masters in Business sounds a refreshingly contrarian note. Creator and host Barry Ritholtz not only invites some of the most dynamic and creative business thinkers to the microphone–he’ll also often s

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned early last year when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This declined sharply and is now up 3.4% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through November 2023.

Food 200
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.