October, 2022

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Can Anyone Catch Nokia?

The Big Picture

Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 34% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 15, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 34% above one year ago.

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You weren’t supposed to see that

The Reformed Broker

I’m going to tell you a quick story in the order in which it happened. You were there. You will be familiar with the sequence of these events. But you may not have reached the shocking conclusion that I have. At least not yet. Wait for it… Our story begins in 2019… It was the best of times, it was the best of times. The tail end of a decade of uninterrupted asset price appreciation for the top decile of.

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Journey Strategic Wealth Recruits 3 Teams, $210M in Assets

Wealth Management

The new teams come from Private Advisor Group, Raymond James and New York Life subsidiary Eagle Strategies.

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8 Ways to Torture Your CFO

The office of the CFO is rapidly evolving, with more and more demands being placed upon the finance and accounting team each year. Join us in this webinar, where we share 8 things to NOT do when it comes to helping the CFO office advance in supporting the business. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how best to support an organization's finance leadership.

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Why The Value Of A Roth Conversion Is Calculated Using (True) Marginal Tax Rates

Nerd's Eye View

Roth conversions are, in essence, a way to pay income taxes on pre-tax retirement funds in exchange for future tax-free growth and withdrawals. The decision of whether or not to convert pre-tax assets to Roth is, on its surface, a simple one: If the assets in question would be taxed at a lower rate by converting them to Roth and paying tax on them today, versus waiting to pay the tax in the future when they are eventually withdrawn, then the Roth conversion makes sense.

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Monday links: bond market losses

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How much has indexing saved investors in fees? (evidenceinvestor.com) Some investors may not understand when they take on leverage. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Companies Brad Gerstner on how to turn Meta's ($META) stock around. (medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. (theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation.

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Housing October 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased, New High for 2022

Calculated Risk

Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +5.0K 2021: -2.4K 2020: -0.9K 2019: -10.9K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 135% since then. Altos reports inventory is up 33.7% year-over-year.

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The Investor Opportunity Index hits a two-year high

The Reformed Broker

Every bear market has these two things in common: They end Expected returns go up The first thing is self-explanatory. The second thing should be obvious but from my talks with thousands of investors over the years, I have found that it is most certainly not intuitive to most people. When I tell you that expected returns are rising as stock prices fall, this is an overly simplistic way of saying that investors only get.

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Medical Office Deals Slow Down as Rising Rates Reset Price Expectations

Wealth Management

“We know firsthand from deals we’ve been working on that buyers have pulled back and lenders are more conservative,” says one broker. Nevertheless, the medical office sector is still considered a favored asset class among investors.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 15-16)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries will be 8.7% for 2023, the largest COLA since 1981. While this will help seniors keep pace with rising prices, it also creates tax planning opportunities for advisors and raises the possibility that the Social Security Trust Fund could be depleted sooner than expected.

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How to Streamline Payment Applications & Lien Waivers Through Innovative Construction Technology

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

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Research links: cutting drawdowns

Abnormal Returns

Research Are index funds to blame for the lack of investment in oil and gas production? (ft.com) On the relationship between asset growth and lottery stock status. (alphaarchitect.com) The problem with growth: persistence is fleeting. (mailchi.mp) Why companies see a jump in their stock price when they hire a black CEO. (wapo.st) Is democracy good for the stock market?

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History of Black Monday

The Big Picture

Imagine the impact of markets losing a ~quarter of their value in one trading session. That was what happened 35 years ago today: October 13 th , Black Monday a/k/a the 1987 crash. If you are a relatively young investor, you may be unfamiliar with what happened that day or why. The 87 crash impacted many market-related elements. We can trace lots of today’s market structure to that event, and the changes it wrought subsequently.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 31% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from economist Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 8, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 31% above one year ago.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Thanks for checking out piece from last Sunday “You weren’t supposed to see that” – it went crazy viral all over the place. I can’t believe how much feedback came in. Mostly in agreement with my conclusion but not all of it, there were some reasonable counterarguments too. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait.

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Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

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Interest in DSTs as a Real Estate Investment Option Continues to Grow

Wealth Management

Once a niche play, DSTs have drawn the interest of institutional-grade sponsors to offer as an option to retail investors managing their real estate plays.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 29-30)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the SEC has proposed a rule that would require RIAs to conduct enhanced due diligence and recordkeeping when using certain outsourced investment management services and other third-party service providers. While the rule is currently in the public comment stage, given the growing popularity of outsourcing certain tasks to free up time for other planning a

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Personal finance links: assigning blame

Abnormal Returns

Work There is a difference between avoiding failure and achieving success. (bankeronfire.com) Companies are not looking out for your financial needs. (tonyisola.com) Ambition comes with a price. (radreads.co) Investing Under what circumstances should you tweak an off-the-shelf portfolio? (morningstar.com) Don't let a market downturn prevent you from doing things you love.

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AI Steve Jobs interviewed by AI Joe Rogan

The Big Picture

This is pretty mind-blowing: a podcast that is entirely generated by artificial intelligence where Joe Rogan interviews Steve Jobs. One of the most important women in Apple’s history never worked for Apple Margot Comstock took her winnings from a TV game show and bought a computer. It led to a magazine, which turned into a major hub for the nascent community of developers and fans of one of the most important computers in history.

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How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in September

Calculated Risk

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.69% in September from 0.72% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.62% in September 2021. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Hey guys, didn’t get a chance to do any writing this week but we did two really good shows on the YouTube / podcast front I wanted to make sure you don’t miss… And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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High Interest Rates Won’t Break the Bank for Apartment Investors

Wealth Management

Some sources of financing are drying up, but overall multifamily fundamentals are strong enough to keep funds flowing to borrowers.

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The Latest In Financial #AdvisorTech (October 2022)

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome to the October 2022 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors! This month's edition kicks off with the news that DPL Financial Partners has raised $20M of capital to continue scaling up its marketplace of no-commission annuities for RIAs, as the ongoing development of new fee-based products – combined wit

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Friday links: generative AI

Abnormal Returns

Finance Per AngelList, the Q3 drop in venture activity was substantial. (angellist.com) Questions keep getting raised about TikTok's data practices. (forbes.com) Fidelity is not abandoning crypto. (bloomberg.com) InstaCart has paused its IPO. (axios.com) Global Why isn't Japan raising rates? (nytimes.com) The backlog of container ships off the coast of Southern California is effectively gone.

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Groping for a Bottom

The Big Picture

There’s nothing like confusing market action to send people into narrative creation overdrive. Yesterday’s 2% collapse on hotter-than-expected CPI data, followed by ~5% recovery to finish the day up more than 2% is a perfect example of random market action begetting endless explanations. What was the takeaway from CPI? Check out the BAML chart above: Core goods are coming down ( that’s good!

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Personal Income increased 0.4% in September; Spending increased 0.6%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).

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The Fastest Drop in Home Prices Since 2009

The Reformed Broker

TONIGHT AT 5:30PM EST! Skylar Olsen joins Michael Batnick and I on a special episode of Live from The Compound! Dr. Skyler Olsen is the Chief Economist at Zillow. Previous to her current position, Skyler founded a consultancy supporting public-facing economic data program, was head of economics at a digital mortgage start-up, and spent 8 years supporting the Zillow economic research department.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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10 Markets That Will Reach a Five-Year Peak for Apartment Deliveries in 2022

Wealth Management

Which U.S. cities have ramped up their new apartment deliveries over the past few years?

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#FA Success Ep 301: Guiding Clients To Design Their Rich Life With A Focus On Spending Dials Not Goals, With Ramit Sethi

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 301st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Ramit Sethi. Ramit is the author of the New York Times’s bestselling book, I Will Teach You To Be Rich , and the owner of the online platform of the same name that offers financial education content and programs to consumers so they can get refocused on their personal finances and the things they love.

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Podcast links: boosting downloads

Abnormal Returns

The biz Podcasters are not above using tricks to boost downloads. (bloomberg.com) Why the podcasting world seems so tired these days. (garbageday.email) Business Barry Ritholtz talks with Steve Case about his career at AOL and investing in startups today. (ritholtz.com) Benjamin Gilbert and David Rosenthal take a deep dive into the history and strategy of Benchmark Capital.

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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

One of the really strange things about watching Federal Reserve policy is the excess of deference that is given to the Fed’s judgment. While the Fed deserves credit for when they get things right – e.g., rescuing the credit system from the great financial crisis (GFC) – they also deserve plenty of blame for the multitude of sins they commit. I am not a Fed hater or part of the crew that wants to “End the Fed.

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You upgrade everything else. Why not your close process?

You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.