The Big Picture
DECEMBER 16, 2022
There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?
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Mish Talk
DECEMBER 11, 2022
"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Top clicks this week What is a reasonable return expectation for the next few decades? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Which fund companies have captured the most dollar gains for investors. (morningstar.com) Why indexing works. (evidenceinvestor.com) Rising interest rates reset a whole host of financial questions. (humbledollar.com) How to remove single points of failure in your life.
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Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 23, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).
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The Big Picture
DECEMBER 30, 2022
Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 1, 2022
LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 16, 2022
Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Mr. Money Mustache
DECEMBER 10, 2022
One of the reasons I don’t write as often these days is that my life has gradually evolved into a Personal Finance Bubble. . The people around me have learned to be purposeful with their money, which means they now have plenty of savings and never have to stress about the stuff. Good ideas have naturally spread between the old group of friends, and new ones with similar values have drifted in over the years.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 21, 2022
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November Existing-home sales declined for the tenth month in a row in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 13, 2022
Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.
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Mish Talk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in
Validea
DECEMBER 14, 2022
By Jack Forehand, CFA, CFP® ( @practicalquant ) —. 2022 has certainly been a challenging year for markets. Although the S&P 500 is only down about 15% for the year, which is significantly less than we have seen in major bear markets, the path to get there has been a volatile one filled with both significant declines and major bear market rallies.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 28, 2022
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.64% in November from 0.67% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.33% in November 2021. This is slightly below the pre-pandemic lows. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 20, 2022
Think back to 2010. After you got done signing up for some new app called Instagram and finished 17 shows and movies about vampires, maybe you finished reading The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy. Once all that pop culture consumption was done, you would have needed some non-fiction to keep up with the intellectual crowd so you moved on to The Big Short by Michael Lewis.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 3, 2022
We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 1, 2022
Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Prices are falling now across the board.
The Irrelevant Investor
DECEMBER 24, 2022
A week ago I was in a room with a hundred people and asked the following question: How many of you think the S&P 500 takes out its October low? At least 80% of the people raised their hands. I then asked, how many of you think we’re in a recession or will be in 2023? Everyone who had their hand raised for the first question kept it in the air for the second.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 6, 2022
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through December 6th. Lumber was at $413 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 54% from $907 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 6, 2022
Before becoming one of the most important movie studio executives of the 1970s, Robert Evans took a break from the glitz and glam of Hollywood to work for his brother’s apparel line, Evan-Picone. The company was so fashionable in the 1960s that every investment bank was pushing them to go public. Before going that route, Robert’s brother Charles put a call into Charlie Revson, the founder and owner of Revlon.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 10, 2022
This week, we speak with Kathleen McCarthy , the global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. The largest owner of commercial real estate globally, Blackstone Real Estate has a $565 billion portfolio and $319 billion in investor capital under management. McCarthy previously served as Blackstone’s global chief operating officer; before joining Blackstone in 2010, she worked at Goldman Sachs.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 10, 2022
This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.
Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®
Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data. Year-Over-Year EU Inflation Soars in October EU inflation is getting out of hand. For example, yesterday I said inflation in France peaked at 6.08 percent and fell to 5.55 percent ion September.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 27, 2022
A strong start to 2022 marked by robust fundamentals and record levels of investment sales activity transitioned into a second half marked by uncertainty, leaving commercial real estate on unsteady footing heading into 2023.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 14, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
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