December, 2022

article thumbnail

What the Fed Gets Wrong

The Big Picture

There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .

Economics 310
article thumbnail

I Collect Cashflows

The Reformed Broker

I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?

278
278
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Binance's Alleged Crypto Audit Failed, Not Even Its Auditor Would Vouch For It

Mish Talk

"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.

Assets 362
article thumbnail

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Close to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through December 6th. Lumber was at $413 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 54% from $907 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.

Marketing 145
article thumbnail

How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

article thumbnail

What Happens If Housing Prices Fall 20%?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Nationwide price declines in the housing market are relatively rare. Since 1987, there have been just three times when the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has been in a state of drawdown: The first was in the early-1990s when housing prices fell a little more than 2% nationally. Then you have the housing crash at the end of the 2000s when prices fell nearly 27%.

Marketing 141

More Trending

article thumbnail

History of Industries Listed on S&P 500

The Big Picture

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.

Economy 310
article thumbnail

Why they clapped for Sam Bankman-Fried

The Reformed Broker

LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.

364
364
article thumbnail

The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

Mish Talk

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).

Food 361
article thumbnail

Personal Income increased 0.4% in November; Spending increased 0.1%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).

Food 145
article thumbnail

2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

article thumbnail

How Often is the Market Down in Consecutive Years?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.

Marketing 139
article thumbnail

Consensus

The Irrelevant Investor

A week ago I was in a room with a hundred people and asked the following question: How many of you think the S&P 500 takes out its October low? At least 80% of the people raised their hands. I then asked, how many of you think we’re in a recession or will be in 2023? Everyone who had their hand raised for the first question kept it in the air for the second.

125
125
article thumbnail

Top 0.1%: How Much Wealth Does It Take?

The Big Picture

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.

article thumbnail

Join me Friday on the annual YCharts year-end webinar

The Reformed Broker

Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.

article thumbnail

Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

article thumbnail

Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in

article thumbnail

November Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was re

article thumbnail

An Incredible Chart of the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Think back to 2010. After you got done signing up for some new app called Instagram and finished 17 shows and movies about vampires, maybe you finished reading The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy. Once all that pop culture consumption was done, you would have needed some non-fiction to keep up with the intellectual crowd so you moved on to The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Marketing 137
article thumbnail

2022 Year-in-Review: CRE's 11 Most Important Stories

Wealth Management

A strong start to 2022 marked by robust fundamentals and record levels of investment sales activity transitioned into a second half marked by uncertainty, leaving commercial real estate on unsteady footing heading into 2023.

Sales 122
article thumbnail

Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

article thumbnail

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.

Math 304
article thumbnail

This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.

306
306
article thumbnail

Inflation Roars Back in the EU With New Highs in Germany, Italy, and France

Mish Talk

Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data. Year-Over-Year EU Inflation Soars in October EU inflation is getting out of hand. For example, yesterday I said inflation in France peaked at 6.08 percent and fell to 5.55 percent ion September.

Economy 301
article thumbnail

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 17%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago.

Sales 145
article thumbnail

Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

article thumbnail

Don’t Try to Get Rich Twice

A Wealth of Common Sense

Before becoming one of the most important movie studio executives of the 1970s, Robert Evans took a break from the glitz and glam of Hollywood to work for his brother’s apparel line, Evan-Picone. The company was so fashionable in the 1960s that every investment bank was pushing them to go public. Before going that route, Robert’s brother Charles put a call into Charlie Revson, the founder and owner of Revlon.

Banking 133
article thumbnail

Does Private Equity Belong in Defined Contribution Plans?

Wealth Management

Increasingly, dynamic, high-growth companies are staying private, closing off significant options for workplace retirement savers. But putting a traditional PE fund inside a 401(k) plan would bring more problems than it solves.

Planning 120
article thumbnail

MiB: Kathleen McCarthy, Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Kathleen McCarthy , the global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. The largest owner of commercial real estate globally, Blackstone Real Estate has a $565 billion portfolio and $319 billion in investor capital under management. McCarthy previously served as Blackstone’s global chief operating officer; before joining Blackstone in 2010, she worked at Goldman Sachs.

article thumbnail

This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.

288
288
article thumbnail

Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

article thumbnail

How Much Free Taxpayer Money is the Fed Giving to Banks?

Mish Talk

Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.

Banking 300
article thumbnail

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

article thumbnail

What’s Going to Happen in the Stock Market Next Year?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I know no one can predict the future…yada, yada, yada, but just between us – what’s going to happen with the stock market next year? I’m not sure I can handle another year like 2022. Life would be a lot easier if I knew the answer to this question. I guess the good news is there really isn’t much connective tissue from one year to the next in terms of one year’s price action impacting the next y.

Marketing 133