December, 2022

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What the Fed Gets Wrong

The Big Picture

There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc.

Economics 300
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I Collect Cashflows

The Reformed Broker

I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get.

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SECURE Act 2.0: Later RMDs, 529-to-Roth-Rollovers, And Other Tax Planning Opportunities

Nerd's Eye View

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72.

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The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower by 1.2 Million for Q2

Mish Talk

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022.

Food 361
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How Automation Can Streamline Your Month-End Close Process

Start the new year with powerful automation for your month-end close and reconciliation process. See how automation can change the trajectory of the close, buy back time, instill more confidence in the results, eliminate administrative headaches and be audit ready.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week What is a reasonable return expectation for the next few decades? ofdollarsanddata.com) Which fund companies have captured the most dollar gains for investors. morningstar.com) Why indexing works.

More Trending

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History of Industries Listed on S&P 500

The Big Picture

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons).

Economy 299
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Why they clapped for Sam Bankman-Fried

The Reformed Broker

LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers.

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SECURE Act 2.0: Later RMDs, 529-to-Roth Rollovers, And Other Tax Planning Opportunities

Nerd's Eye View

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72.

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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month.

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Book of Secrets for the Month-End Close

Developing a consistent month-end close doesn’t need to be a mystery. We’re sharing our top 10 secrets (plus one bonus!) for streamlining your close.

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Saturday links: unearned confidence

Abnormal Returns

Autos Auto insurance premiums are set to rise in 2023. axios.com) DHL is buying 2,000 electric Ford E-Transits as delivery vans. arstechnica.com) Fully electric semis face a lot of hurdles. axios.com) Transport More transit systems are making bus rides free.

Food 246
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What Are Eurodollars and Why do they Matter? (Video)

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here’s a new edition of 3 Minute Macro on the topic of Eurodollars. Eurodollars are a somewhat opaque part of the financial world, but have become increasingly important in the [ …

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Top 0.1%: How Much Wealth Does It Take?

The Big Picture

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting.

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Join me Friday on the annual YCharts year-end webinar

The Reformed Broker

Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free.

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Top 7 Global Employment Challenges

Global expansion brings many opportunities for companies. However, there are pitfalls along the way that can slow down progress. In this eBook, we look at the 7 key challenges to global growth, and ways to minimize expansion headaches.

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How “Probability Of Success” Differs Between One-Time And Ongoing Financial Plans

Nerd's Eye View

Monte Carlo simulations have become the dominant method for conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs.

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As Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline, The Fed Finally Admits a Housing Bubble

Mish Talk

Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags.

Sales 321
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Thursday links: failing utterly

Abnormal Returns

Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme. awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. crossingwallstreet.com) Companies Inside the Southwest Airlines ($LUV) meltdown.

Startup 238
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Needs, Wants and why We Always Feel Unhappy

Pragmatic Capitalism

By the age of 30 I was financially independent. My business was self sustaining, I enjoyed my work immensely and no one could tell me what to do. I wrote [ …

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Quick Guide to Digital Lending for Regional & Community Banks

Ever wonder how some regional and community banks are able to outperform their larger rivals? One of the biggest keys to this success lies in digital transformation. In fact, digital lending technologies are helping banks make the transition faster so they can compete more effectively. Read this eBook to learn how to use lending technology to transform your bank’s outcomes, too!

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy?

Math 282
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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience.

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#FA Success Ep 312: Resetting Your Work/Life Balance By Getting Paid For Expertise Instead Of (Just) Effort, With Emily Rassam

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 312th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Emily Rassam.

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Inflation Roars Back in the EU With New Highs in Germany, Italy, and France

Mish Talk

Inflation data from St. Louis Fed amended with October data from other sources, chart by Mish. Yesterday, I commented on Inflation Around the World: How Does the US Compare to Canada and the EU? but have new sources for October data.

Economy 301
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Global Hiring Guide: Top Emerging Fintech Hubs

The fintech industry is growing exponentially. Companies can find the talent they need in top emerging fintech hubs around the world. Highly skilled global candidates are available to hire — companies just need to know where to look for them.

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Tuesday links: the tech set

Abnormal Returns

Markets The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. humbledollar.com) Commodity returns stood out in 2022. capitalspectator.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. topdowncharts.substack.com) Strategy There is a big difference between forecasting stock and bond returns.

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Three Things I Think I Think – Housing Risks

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: Housing, housing, housing. If I had to distill my current macro outlook down into a sentence or two it would [ …

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Your Co-Investors in BREIT

The Big Picture

In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican.

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The HR Compliance Playbook: How to Improve Speed-to-Hire

Every global growth to-do list should begin with compliance. Navigating international jurisdictions can be complex and time-consuming, but with solid, up-to-date compliance procedures, companies can maximize efficiency, speed-to-hire, and mitigate risks.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 17-18)

Nerd's Eye View

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How Much Free Taxpayer Money is the Fed Giving to Banks?

Mish Talk

Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download.

Banking 300
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Podcast links: telling stories with data

Abnormal Returns

The biz Podcasting ad revenue is expected to rise in 2023. insideradio.com) Joe Rogan maintained his hold as the No. 1 podcaster on Spotify for 2022. variety.com) The problem with Spotify ($SPOT) Wrapped.

Media 239