Fri.Dec 30, 2022

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 63% YoY; New Listings Down 6% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. For the week ending December 24th, active inventory was up 63.1% year-over-year (YoY), up from 58.1% YoY last week. New listings were down 5.7% YoY , the smallest YoY decrease since July. This small YoY decrease in new listings might be related to the holidays. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.

Marketing 357
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History of Industries Listed on S&P 500

The Big Picture

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.

Economy 313
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A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

Calculated Risk

Two key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010

Sales 355
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Highlights of Heckerling

Wealth Management

Wednesday, February 01, 2023 | 2:00 PM Eastern Standard Time

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023? Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

Economics 264
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Dec 31-Jan 1)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the passage of “SECURE Act 2.0” has brought a wide range of changes to the world of retirement planning. And given the variety of planning opportunities created by the legislation – from the raising of the beginning age for RMDs to the ability to transfer funds from 529 plans to Roth IRAs – advisors have a significant opportunity t

More Trending

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Some Stuff That (Probably) Won’t Happen in 2023

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’ve been getting a lot of pundit outlook pieces for 2023 in my inbox these past few weeks. The onset of a new year is a time for making lists of predictions, surprises and black swan possibilities. There are few sure things when it comes to the markets so I don’t put a lot of stock into predictions. You could say the stock market will open at 9:30 am est and close at 4 pm est during regular market hours but t.

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Podcast links: the future of psychedelics

Abnormal Returns

The biz Where the podcast advertising market sits going into 2023. (theverge.com) The best fake podcasts of 2022 including 'Only Murders in the Building.' (vulture.com) Finance Barry Ritholtz talks with Charlie Ellis about his new book "Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business.

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Expected Returns to Green Stocks

Alpha Architect

The past decade has seen a dramatic growth in sustainable investing—applying environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria to investment strategies. Investments considered environmentally friendly are often referred to as “green,” while “brown” denotes the opposite. Important questions for investors are: What are the expected returns to green stocks?

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After $18 Trillion Rout, Global Stocks Face More Hurdles in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

More tech tantrums. China’s Covid surge. And above all, no central banks riding to the rescue if things go wrong.

Banking 98
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Cannonball Run

The Better Letter

In 1933, factory worker-turned-vaudevillian-turned racer Erwin George “Cannonball” Baker, later commissioner of NASCAR, drove from New York to Los Angeles by car in a supercharged Graham-Paige Blue Streak in 53.5 hours and, in the process, created a record that stood for nearly 40 years and inspired the “ Cannonball Baker Sea-To-Shining-Sea Memorial Trophy Dash ,” better known as the “ The Cannonball Run.” The unsanctioned race traditionally starts from New Yo

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Moving Averages: S&P Down 5.9% in December, Down 19.4% in 2022

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on January 31, 2023. The S&P 500 closed December with a monthly loss of 5.9% after a gain of 5.4% in November. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "cash" — iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC) — down from from last month's quintuple "cash" signal.

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High Quality Value Investing with a Tactical Twist With Jeff Muhlenkamp

Validea

In this episode, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp. Jeff is the manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, which has managed client money for over three decades. We discuss his approach to finding undervalued securities and the portfolio management process he uses to manage the fund. We also cover the fund’s unique approach to raising cash based on market conditions, the biggest lessons he learned from his father Ron, who originally founded the firm, and how his military training has helped him in the in

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New Retirement Rule Delaying Withdrawals Could Bite

Advisor Perspectives

Wealthy retirees seem to have scored big in Congress’ sweeping year-end spending package.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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A Reckoning Over Junk Bonds Is Coming

Validea

As interest rates have crept up, they’ve begun to highlight which businesses can be sustained for the long run and which ones are built on cheap money. That separation will become even starker in 2023, contends an article in Bloomberg. Quick Links Validea Special Discount Offer Top Value Stocks in Today’s Market Choose from 20+ Actionable Model Portfolios – View Portfolios.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: 2022 Ends Down 19.4% YTD

Advisor Perspectives

Despite the rally on Thursday, the S&P 500 is down 25 basis points from yesterday and is down 19.4% YTD. The index is about 20% below its record close - so really in bear territory. Will we see a Santa Rally in the first two weeks of 2023?

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How Buffett Beat The Market This Year

Validea

While the S&P 500 has fallen over 15% this year, shares of Warren Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway are up roughly 5.5% for the year, fueled by its large stake in energy companies Chevron and Occidental, reports an article in CNN. Oil stocks skyrocketed this year as a result of elevated crude prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Occidental’s shares have more than doubled, making it the top winner in the S&P 500.

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Distressed Investing Is Back. These Trades Are Defining the Game

Advisor Perspectives

Savvy investors seized tightening credit markets this year to reshape the distressed investing playing field just as more companies look destined for default in 2023.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Wall Street Missed The Bear Market

Validea

Wall Street analysts were fairly accurate in their predictions of S&P 500 companies’ 2022 corporate earnings but missed this year’s bear market completely, contends an article in The Wall Street Journal. Strategists for Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup forecast earnings within $1, the narrowest estimate since 1995, according to data from Refinitiv IBES cited in the article.

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Gold 2023 Outlook: Recession and Rates to Remain in Focus

Advisor Perspectives

George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors provides his outlook for gold in 2023, as well as the specific headwinds and tailwinds he expect to drive price activity moving forward.

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Hedge Funds Have Their “Hedge” Back

Validea

The last several years have seen lackluster performances from hedge funds—in 2021, they only returned about 10.3% while the S&P 500 returned almost 27%. And given their high fees, it’s no wonder they had fallen out of favor. But given the shift in market conditions this year, hedge funds may be on a rebound, reports an article in Yahoo! Finance.

Banking 59
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Cathie Wood's Grim 2022 Is Almost Over. Next Year Also Looks Bad

Advisor Perspectives

Cathie Wood’s worst-ever year wasn’t even over before the clouds started to gather for 2023.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Active Investing Will Be On The Rise in 2023

Validea

Active management will become more popular next year, as well as custom strategies for those investors who want to have more control over where their money goes, contends an article in Yahoo! Finance. Direct indexing assets, currently at $462 billion, are expected to rise up to $825 billion by 2026, according to Cerulli Associates data that is cited in the article, making its growth forecast the biggest out of ETFs, mutual funds, and separately managed accounts.

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Yardeni Says Stock Bulls Have 'Narrow Path' to Victory in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

Stock market bulls have a “narrow path” to victory next year as long as inflation comes down faster than expected, according to Ed Yardeni, founder of his namesake research firm.

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How to become a Financial Advisor

Conneqtor

What is a Financial Advisor and tips to become one What is a financial advisor? Unfortunately, the “financial advisor” term has many meanings. It has been thrown around so much and used in so many different ways that not only does our profession struggle to define it, consumers do as well.

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US Bond Performance Shows Fed Isn't Behind the Curve

Advisor Perspectives

Back in March, “the Fed is behind the curve” was the prevailing narrative of too little, too late when it came to containing inflation.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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COVID Dec 30, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data is now weekly. Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics Now Week Ago Goal New Cases per Week 2 402,525 486,627 ≤35,000 1 Hospitalized 2 ? 34,116 33,788 ≤3,000 1 Deaths per Week 2 2,530 2,932 ≤350 1 1 my goals to stop weekly posts, 2 Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths ?

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Chicago PMI Rises in December

Advisor Perspectives

The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, rose to 44.9 in December from 37.2 in November, which is still in contraction territory. It has spent 1/3 of 2022 in contraction territory. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.

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How to help LGBTQ+ clients plan their financial futures

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways: It’s important to be aware that throughout history, LGBTQ+ individuals have had to fight hard for their rights and protections to feel safer at home among family and friends, as well as at work among their colleagues. The LGBTQ+ community gained protection under the Civil Rights Act of 1964 through the United States Supreme Court’s Bostock v Clayton decision, which was issued on June 15, 2020.1.

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How Does SECURE Act 2.0 Change Saving for Retirement?

Advisor Perspectives

Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills outlines key components of the new legislation.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.