Recession Watch Metrics
Calculated Risk
APRIL 7, 2025
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Now I am on recession watch , but still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take
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