Fri.Apr 07, 2023

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March Employment Report: 236 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and health care. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down by 32,000, from +504,000 to +472,000, and the change for February was revised up by 15,000, from +311,000 to +326,

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Getting So Much Better All the Time

The Big Picture

 A quick note before the 3-day holiday weekend consumes all: I was thumbing through the Oscar edition of a recent glossy mag when I came across an article by James Pogue titled “ West of Eden.” It’s a discussion of folks on the fringe right, including preppers, dystopian billionaires, and a bunch of off-the-grid, back to-the-land, radicals. I can sum up the entire vibe with a single quote: “ If you’re not willing to shoot federal agents, then you’re not serious about it.

Media 279
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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March A brief excerpt: This is the first look at local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

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Infrastructure Innovations Are Spurring Global Investment

Wealth Management

Infrastructure should prove particularly attractive for investors seeking diversification, inflation protection and downside resilience with the potential to generate attractive absolute returns.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and consumer spending that’s not as robust as it was during most of the last three years.

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The WealthStack Podcast: 5 Trends Shaping Wealth Management in 2023

Wealth Management

Nexus Strategy's Tim Welsh describes the subtle yet dramatic changes happening in the independent wealth space that will shape the industry going forward.

More Trending

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SMArtX Advisory Solutions Adds 54 Strategies to UMA Platform

Wealth Management

The platform now features 1,181 strategies from 290 asset management firms, according to the company.

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Comments on March Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. The participation rate and employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%. Leisure and hospitality gained 72 thousand jobs in March. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 368 thousand jobs since February 2020

Numbers 246
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Money Market Funds Are Surging in Popularity. Here’s What Clients Need to Know

Wealth Management

Banking turmoil and high yields pushed money market assets to a record $5.25 trillion this week.

Clients 260
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Friday links: legitimate competitors

Abnormal Returns

Strategy What does ChatGPT know about investing? (morningstar.com) Why fund managers don't want to talk about skill. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Money market mutual fund assets are surging. (axios.com) Companies Microsoft ($MSFT) and Google ($GOOGL) are pushing ahead with AI despite their limitations. (nytimes.com) The metaverse was a 'fever dream.' (youngmoney.co) Tech stock investors love big layoffs.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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The Biggest ETF Launch Ever Is Just a $2 Billion ESG Fund Reshuffle

Wealth Management

The Xtrackers MSCI USA Climate Action Equity ETF (USCA), which debuted Tuesday with $2 billion in assets, surpassed the $1.35 billion launch of the Goldman Sachs MarketBeta US 1000 Equity ETF (GUSA).

Assets 249
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That Wasn’t the Bottom

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Tony Dwyer, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss how long an inverted yield curve can last, the unemployment rate and recession, bank lending standards, the Fed, commercial real estate, AI, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Banking 235
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Less Cars, More Money: My Visit to the City of the Future

Mr. Money Mustache

In my role as Mr. Money Mustache, I do my best to be your one-stop-shop for Lifestyle Guru ideas. So over the years we’ve covered not just the Money side of life, but also the even more important stuff like health and fitness and the psychology of better, happier living. But there’s one single area of life where all of these factors come together with an almost Nuclear Fusion level of synergy and effectiveness.

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SECURE 2.0 Creates Many Opportunities for RPAs

Wealth Management

Don't just study the SECURE 2.0 provisions.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in March, Down 2.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Modest Increase in March Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.5% in March from February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 238.1, down 2.4% from a year ago. March’s increase was moderated by the seasonal adjustment.

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Combining Reversals with Time-Series Momentum Strategies

Alpha Architect

Jiadong Liu and Fotis Papailias contribute to the momentum literature with their study “Time Series Reversal in Trend-Following Strategies,” published in the January 2023 issue of “European Financial Management,” in which they examined the reversal property of various financial assets. <strong>Combining Reversals with Time-Series Momentum Strategies</strong> was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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The Ultimate Level of Wealth

A Wealth of Common Sense

When Slack co-founder Stewart Butterfield was on the How I Built This, Guy Raz asked him what it was like to become insanely rich (Forbes has Butterfield pegged at $1.4 billion). Butterfield told Raz, “Beyond a certain level of wealth it doesn’t make your life any better.” He framed it in terms of 3 levels of wealth: Level 1. I’m not stressed out about debt.

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How to raise a young investor

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways: Before diving into investing, it can be helpful to make sure children understand the basics of money management, including budgeting, saving, and spending. Although how your client explains the fundamentals of investing will depend on their child’s temperament and maturity, discussing the types of investments, the concept of risk and return, and the importance of diversification can be great places to start.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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: First Republic Bank is suspending dividend payment on preferred stock

MarketWatch

First Republic Bank FRC on Friday said it would halt paying quarterly cash dividends on its preferred stock. In a filing, the company said the move to suspend those payments, made on Thursday, was “a measure of prudent oversight.” The move for the struggling bank, which teetered as its wealthy clients raced to get their money out following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, comes after it suspended its common-stock dividend last month.

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Edgar Collado on The COO Roundtable Podcast by PFI Advisors

Tobias Financial

Continuously learning, improving, and having the mentality of “let’s see if there is a better way to do this” are key attributes of a Chief Operating Officer of a company. Recently, our COO Edgar Collado was a guest on The COO Roundtable podcast by PFI Advisors hosted by Matt Sonnen. Edgar spoke about Tobias Financial Advisors, the COO role from both the day-to-day operations of a firm to a high-level and the strategic point of view.

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: McDonald’s restructuring goes company wide, hundreds of jobs hit: report

MarketWatch

McDonald’s Corp. MCD job cuts look to go company wide and will likely result in hundreds of layoffs and compensation reductions, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing sources close to the matter. Earlier in the week, the Journal reported the fast-food giant was closing corporate offices to prep for the cuts. With markets closed for Good Friday, McDonald’s shares finished the shortened week Thursday up 1.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA gained 0.7%, the S&P 500 index SPX

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week, market’s-closed-but-BLS-open Good Friday reads: • Here’s What Happens at the IRS After You File Your Taxes Refunds can come in five days—or a few months. ( Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. ( American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the r

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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: Walmart sues Capital One in effort to end credit-card partnership: WSJ

MarketWatch

Big-box retailer Walmart Inc. WMT this week sued credit-card giant Capital One Financial Corp. COF in an effort to scrap a credit-card partnership between the two, according to The Wall Street Journal. Walmart’s lawsuit alleged that Capital One came up short on its service obligations, failing to replace lost cards or post some transactions to customers’ accounts in a timely manner — claims the credit-card provider said were “immaterial,” the Journal said.

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Podcast links: equity option solutions

Abnormal Returns

The biz Is the podcast boom going bust? (vanityfair.com) How Edward Herrmann continues to narrate audiobooks after his passing. (wsj.com) Spotify ($SPOT) has shut down Spotify Live. (musically.com) Recommendations 10 podcast episodes you might like including Cliff Asness on 'Masters in Business' with Barry Ritholtz. (riskofruinpod.substack.com) 10 podcasts the team at Oaktree Capital recommend including 'Masters in Business.

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: Schwab reports second-highest March influx of core net new client assets

MarketWatch

Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW said Thursday it recorded $53 billion in core net new client assets in its second-highest March result in its history. The financial services and brokerage firm said despot flows “have remained fairly consistent” during recent weeks of banking jitters. While money has flowed into higher-interest-paying money market funds, CDs and bonds from relatively lower-return accounts, that trend will start to level off because consumers still want to keep cash in a more “highly li

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COVID Apr 7, 2023: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data is now weekly. After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths. Weekly deaths increased this week after setting a new pandemic low at 1,537 the previous week (see graph below).

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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: Exxon held talks with Pioneer Natural about potential deal: WSJ

MarketWatch

Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM has held informal talks with Pioneer Natural Resources Co. PXD about a possible acquisition, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Exxon has been exploring options to put its cash to use and its executives have discussed a potential tie-up with at least one other company, although it sees Pioneer as a top target, according to the report.

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: Traders see probability of May rate hike surge to 70% after jobs report

MarketWatch

Traders of Fed funds futures priced in nearly 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve when the central bank meets in May. The probability of a hike rose to 67.4% after the data, up from 49.2% a day earlier, according to data from the CME’s FedWatch tool. Analysts said the March jobs report would likely embolden the Fed to hike in May, as the labor market continued to see signs of strength last month.

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: Barstool Sports boosting its presence in Chicago, but New York remains headquarters: spokesperson

MarketWatch

Barstool Sports Inc., the irreverent and sometimes controversial sports-oriented media company, is opening an office in the booming Fulton Market area just west of the Chicago Loop that, according to Crain’s Chicago Business, could span 40,000 square feet. Barstool was founded in suburban Boston and has been based in Manhattan since 2016. It was acquired this year by Penn Entertainment Inc.

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: Barstool Sports reportedly shifting headquarters to Chicago from New York

MarketWatch

Barstool Sports Inc., the irreverent and sometimes controversial sports-oriented media company, is moving its headquarters to the booming Fulton Market area just west of the Chicago Loop, according to Crain’s Chicago Business. Barstool was founded in suburban Boston and has been based in Manhattan since 2016. It was acquired this year by Penn Entertainment Inc.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.