James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. economy is not currently in recession, odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that one may come in the next year. While Friday’s strong jobs report provides more evidence that the U.S.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 26, 2023

Topic 1: Economy Bull case: Consumer is resilient, the labor market is strong, wages are rising, and inflation is coming down steadily. Background: The global economy will likely slow from the upper-2% range in 2022 down to slightly above zero in 2023 ( Figure 1 ). Call us cautious bulls. Our take: The U.S.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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James Hendries

JUNE 26, 2023

Investment Outlook Stocks have had a strong rally over the past eight months to establish a new bull market. With the broad market overbought in the short-term from a technical analysis perspective and valuations elevated, stocks may be due for a pause. economy and corporate America has been impressive.

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Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labor force, and the economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market. The global economy is complex, and a simplification of reality always introduces distortions, so perhaps we should zoom out a bit.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

Perhaps the market’s biggest fear has been that the Fed may overdo its tightening to fight inflation and send the economy into a painful recession, break something, or both. He acknowledged that the economy is slowing (which is what the Fed wants) and that the full effect of the rate hikes had not yet been felt. Of course, the U.S.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 98

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. The Economy Slows But Inflation Follows Too Slowly. economy grew at a 2.6%

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Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. Diffusion describes an economy that has experienced a contraction in a wide range of sectors, such as trade, business activity, and consumer spending. If the U.S. At LPL Research, our starting point is always looking at history. Technical Definition.

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Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

economy in mid-March, 62% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, and aggregate earnings were within one percentage point of expectations. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, so the ISM index tends to have some predictive power when it comes to earnings. The S&P 500 is more manufacturing-heavy than the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Given the country’s weak economy, due in large part to stringent zero-COVID-19 measures that have led to strict and prolonged lockdowns, coupled with a debt-laden property market, authorities in Beijing and throughout the Chinese provinces will need to focus on reviving the country’s economic underpinning. At the same time, U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 20, 2023

economy grew at a solid 3.2% and European economies, currency effects, and some mitigation of profit margin pressures from cost controls and lower inflation. economy may “muddle through” and skirt recession. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. And don’t forget the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 11, 2022

If an economy needs to see inflation easing, it makes little sense to stimulate the economy through tax cuts while tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates. Powell has repeated, in what has become his mantra, that without price stability we cannot have a strong economy or a strong labor market.

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Marketing Marketing Banking Government 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

The numerous challenges last quarter included a slowing economy, intensifying inflation pressures, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, and a surging U.S. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

We think the move lower in yields may be a bit premature as we expect the economy to stay out of a recession this year. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-toearnings valuation ratio. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. due to expectations of slowing economic growth.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 31, 2023

economy is only facing a growth scare and muddles through on the back of a resilient consumer who is flush with cash. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 7, 2022

economy following disappointing August inflation data was the top cause of the market’s struggles. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-toearnings valuation ratio. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker/dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).

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Portfolio Taxes Investment Advisor Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

The news on the economy and corporate profits hasn’t been great lately, but thanks to low expectations, it’s been good enough to push stocks nicely higher. economy into recession, causing unemployment to rise and slashing corporate profits. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

However, as Fed rate hikes flow into the real economy, the risk of a recession increases, which should help bring down yields. Over the past six months, the Fed has been aggressively raising short-term interest rates in an effort to arrest these continued consumer price increases and deliberately slow the economy.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

Market participants remained on edge due to high inflation and the risk that the Federal Reserve over-tightens monetary policy to combat it, potentially sending the economy into recession. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-toearnings valuation ratio. After an 8.4%

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Portfolio Asset Allocation Taxes Investment Advisor 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Growth stocks typically trade at higher valuations on the premise that an investor is buying a company now that will grow to be a much larger company, producing higher levels of cash and profit in the future. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

The economy is now employing more workers in temporary help services than ever before, and this could be a cause for concern. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Forward-looking sales estimates paint a more subdued picture, which makes sense given the macro headwinds facing the economy and the consumer. Retailer valuations have also taken a hit, as the forward (next 12 months) P/E multiple has contracted ~20% year to date, from ~27x to ~22x currently. over the last 20 years, pre-2020.

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Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

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James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. economy will avoid recession. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 52

James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

A global economy that was already vulnerable to inflation from supply chain disruptions, tight labor markets, excess stimulus, and loose monetary policy came under more pressure when Russian aggression in Ukraine added sharply rising commodity prices and put Europe on the brink of recession. In the midst of the storm. If the U.S. If the U.S.

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Management Marketing Marketing Valuation 52

James Hendries

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations, likely in the summer or early fall.

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Marketing Marketing Government Economy 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

With the economy exhibiting low growth and generationally high inflation, these additional factors point to the House very likely flipping with some possibility of a wave election for Republicans. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. All index data from FactSet.

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Marketing Marketing Government Banking 52