Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 3.0 annual rate, and residential investment increased at a 1.3%

Government

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

investment firm. ” It goes without saying that politics should have no place in any reputable firm’s Research department (see Why Politics and Investing do not mix ). Gross investment includes what government spends on structures, equipment, and software, such as new highways, schools, and computers.

Government

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. Charlie Ellis is just a legend in the world of investing. He was chairman of the Yale’s Endowment Investment Committee and his, not only did he write 21 books, his new book, rethinking Investing, is just a delightful snack.

Investments

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 13, 2025

Other key findings from the survey included a gap between long-term investment return expectations of investors and advisors (12.6% Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey of U.S.

Financial Planner

MainStreet Financial Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Economic uncertaintywhether it’s due to market volatility, rising inflation, or potential recessionscan feel overwhelming. Here are five practical tactics to help retirees weather economic uncertainty: Take a Break from the News Constantly consuming news and social media can lead to unnecessary panic.

Economics

Wealth Management

JULY 2, 2025

Related: What Behavioral Economics Shows us about How to Manage Investor Expectations During Market Uncertainty However, when it comes to how members of Gen X prefer to be approached by their advisors , there is no “one size fits all” solution, Horton noted.

Financial Advisor

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). in November, up from 3.7%

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. for the month.

Economy

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. [Mar 7th] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report indeed indicated that elevated gold imports contributed the bulk of increase in imports in January. percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. This alliance has the potential to challenge established power structures, particularly in global economic governance. This development may attract foreign investments, further driving economic growth.

Economics

Wealth Management

AUGUST 1, 2025

Gabelli's John Belton sits down with Ryan Nauman to discuss the current state of growth versus value investing, the dynamics in the tech sector, importance of fundamentals and the impact of economic conditions on investing in international markets.

Economics

Carson Wealth

JULY 16, 2025

Let’s be honest—investment terminology can sound like a foreign language. Here’s the good news: You don’t need an MBA to get smart about investing. Ready to make sense of confusing investment terms and use them to your advantage? Core Market Investment Terms Bull or bear market? Risk tolerance and asset allocation?

Investments

Wealth Management

JUNE 27, 2025

With more than 25 years of industry experience, he has set the strategic vision for the firm, which encompasses AssetMark’s platform of curated investments, technology solutions, business consulting, operations support, and acquisitions that serve the best interests of financial advisors and their investors.

Estate Planning

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. It was never me that made all of those mistakes. But it was. That game was eye-opening. As Daniel Kahneman explained , “We are blind to our blindness.

Economics

Wealth Management

JULY 30, 2025

The absence of guaranteed returns, plus illiquidity, clawback risk and the fund’s long investment cycle, all suppress the fair market value of carry. That means reading the limited partnership agreement closely, modeling the cash flow “waterfall” accurately and applying realistic assumptions about timing, performance and risk of investments.

Estate Planning

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. On the corporate side, companies hold off on big CapEx spending, building new plants, investments, and hiring.

Economics

Validea

NOVEMBER 9, 2024

Yet despite the initial development period, their systematic approach was fundamentally sound and eventually led to one of the most successful track records in investment history, with the Medallion Fund averaging over 60% returns annually for several decades. So what constitutes a sound investment process?

Investments

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. in 2024 (around 2.6% Q4-over-Q4). Q4-over-Q4).

Economy

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

I chatted with Jean Chatzky of Your Money Map about HNTI and some general investing concepts. Many, if not most, investing books aim to teach people how TO invest. Your focus is giving readers advice on how NOT to invest. The book is broken down into four categories of things not to do when youre investing.

Retirement

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

Congrats again to the Dow on an amazing run and to all the investors over the years who have benefited by sticking to their investment plans. US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend.

Economics

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

(podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." fasterplease.substack.com) Policy Stephen Dubner talks tax myths with Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow in budget, tax, and economic policy at the Manhattan Institute.

Budgeting

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. This graph uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

What do these mean, and which is a sounder investment strategy? Weve simplified the differences between time in the market and market timing to explain the best investing strategies for investors. 2 Investing Is An Emotional Rollercoaster When it comes to investments, company stock prices and markets fluctuate wildly on a daily basis.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2025 and a few predictions: Question #6 for 2025: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2025?

Economics

Validea

NOVEMBER 9, 2024

Martin Zweig may have owned one of the most expensive penthouses in Manhattan, but his path to wealth was paved with disciplined, methodical investing rather than risky speculation. By high school, he had already set his sights on becoming a millionaire through stock investing.

Investments

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2025

It can be designed to accentuate your best features, made in a color and style that will both please you and be appropriate for the occasion in which it will be worn. The same is true of investment portfolios. The use of advanced investment strategies. One basic and popular strategy for building a portfolio is the 60/40 model.

Portfolio

Calculated Risk

JUNE 6, 2025

After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 4.0 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2.

Economics

Nationwide Financial

AUGUST 7, 2024

Key takeaways: Economic activity was downshifted by mid-year, with elevated interest rates and inflation fatigue weighing on consumer and business spending behavior. The less frothy economic data provide more reason for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates in the second half of 2024.

Economics

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. Source: I nvestors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar ; November 21, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.

Marketing

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Market: This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opprtunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. Who will be this years champion? Lets break it down ( click here to see the full bracket).

Investments

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 15, 2025

As 2025 progresses, investors and policymakers are navigating a highly complex economic landscape shaped by three powerful and interrelated forces: evolving trade policy, a cautious U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and growing concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline.

Economics

Validea

JANUARY 9, 2025

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging discussion about markets, the economy, and investing.

Investments

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

awealthofcommonsense.com) Books "Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meetings" by Alex Morris is a good refresher course. jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. wsj.com) AI Alibaba ($BABA) has pivoted to AI.

Media

WiserAdvisor

JUNE 18, 2025

In the world of investing, this could not be truer. Long-term investing is where you put your money to work and give it time to grow. Below are 5 long term investment strategies you need to know about in 2025: 1. This is the segment you can explore for long-term investing. Because they hold real value. Why does it work?

Investments