Calculated Risk
MARCH 7, 2025
From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. Further, recent surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. GDP expanded at a 2.3
Calculated Risk
MARCH 19, 2025
FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.
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Calculated Risk
MARCH 5, 2025
Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic. Multiple Districts cited job growth in health care and finance, while employment declines were reported in manufacturing and information technology.
Calculated Risk
JULY 30, 2025
FOMC Statement: Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid.
Calculated Risk
MAY 28, 2025
Excerpt: In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlooks for inflation and economic activity. emphasis added
The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2025
This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”
The Big Picture
MARCH 31, 2025
The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. 2) What will their impact be on economic activity and inflation? I didnt understand this as representing a significant threat to the established economic order. In a word, the U.S.
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