Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 14, 2025

arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?: podcasts.apple.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks the business of space with Matt Weinzierl, co-author of "Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier." techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free.

Budgeting 144

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 144

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 29, 2024

MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t. To ensure we’re looking at the proper vintage data, we’ll use FRED’s sibling, ALFRED, which allows us to pick a point in time and view the then-real-time numbers. maybe just one more graf. Don’t care.

Government 356

Government Media Numbers Food 356

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2025

These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.

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Retirement Investments Investing Numbers 187

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. As of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. economy, while other economies have been less lucky. Luxury car sales fell 27%.

Government 244

Government Economy Advertising Engineering 244

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) Economy The case for the Fed to cut rates. wsj.com) How the post-pandemic economy is messing with the Sahm Rule.

License 283

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 283

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% calculatedriskblog.com) Claudia Sahm, "We look to Fed officials as skilled in economic forecasting and monetary policy, but theres no reason to think they are individually good at forecasting fiscal policy." rise in national home prices.

Media 167

Media Economy Numbers Economics 167

Clever Girl Finance

APRIL 22, 2025

Recession-proof businesses are more than just smart, they’re essential when economic uncertainty hits. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Thats where recession-resistant businesses come in.

Economy 69

Economy Food Healthcare Economics 69

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2025

But this is a fun conversation with Pete Dominick discussing the economy, the market and of course, the new book! He is the creator of The Big Picture, often ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others. Yeah, yeah, more of me, I know.

Investments 130

Investments Investing Startup Wealth Management 130

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. The economy created 139,000 jobs in May (above expectations for a 126,000 increase) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector.

Economics 64

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. I think number one.

Economy 159

Economy Economics Food Banking 159

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? But there is a tomorrow and my expectations are that if the Fed overtightens (as they appear on track to do) then the next 12 months will be less economically robust than the prior 12.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theringer.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." wsj.com) Five insights from "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality" by Angust Deaton. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023.

Assets 266

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 266

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 22, 2023

This continues to be one of the more confusing economic environments in history. Some economic indicators are screaming slowdown while others are giving an all-clear. Every other day the narrative switches between an imminent recession and a soft landing. Neither outcome would surprise me at this point.

Numbers 139

Numbers Economy Economics Marketing 139

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Or will the economy lose jobs? "My Through November the economy has added 2.55 range in 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

(marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. nytimes.com) Economy The economic graph of 2023. bonddad.blogspot.com) The American manufacturing economy is bumping along. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 279

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. consensus — but also included a consumption gain of 4%.

Economy 302

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 302

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

(washingtonpost.com) Measuring economic inequality is harder than it looks. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. papers.ssrn.com) Economy People have nostalgia for a time that never existed. papers.ssrn.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Financial Advising 283

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 283

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 21, 2023

And the current S&P Global PMI numbers serve to reinforce the PoV narrative. This is not the same economy as the pre-Covid era. This is the economy of “pushing price” and finding that marginal dollar. That was supposed to be a headwind to the US economy and inflationary pressures. Manufacturing firms? Pushing price.

Economy 327

Economy Banking Manufacturing Management 327

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. papers.ssrn.com) An aging workforce need not reduce economic growth. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage. wsj.com) Economy Annie Lowery, "We have a long-standing housing shortage.

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Economics Insurance Media 275

The Big Picture

MARCH 1, 2025

Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. The ultrarich are growing in numbers, and changing wealth as we know it. ( Imagine if every sentence in a story were expected to contain the same number of alphanumeric characters.

Math 159

Math Startup Economy Engineering 159

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

abnormalreturns.com) Economy The quits rate is falling from historic highs. econbrowser.com) Global economic growth numbers don't tell us much. (etf.com) Higher interest rates put target-date bond ETFs back in the spotlight. wsj.com) It's been a long time coming. wsj.com) How Q4 GDP is shaping up.

Financial Advising 268

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 268

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. bonddad.blogspot.com) What does the Taylor Swift ticket situation tell us about the economy?

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 31, 2024

(wapo.st) Why is Apple ($AAPL) publicly touting its Apple Card spending numbers? blog.johnwallstreet.com) Economy The labor market continues to soften. econbrowser.com) Economic vibes are improving. spyglass.org) Sports The PGA Tour just scored a big, non-Saudi, investment. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: an obsolete model.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Economy Accounting 259

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 3, 2023

axios.com) Economy Josh Brown, "The economy ought to be able to heal itself for the most part. downtownjoshbrown.com) College-educated women with children under 10 are in the workforce at record numbers. wsj.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. axios.com) Q4 GDP is tracking around 1%.

Asset Allocation 258

Asset Allocation Financial Advising Startup Economy 258

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

washingtonpost.com) Economy American consumer behavior is normalizing. calculatedriskblog.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media A growing number of New York City office buildings are emptying out. noahpinion.blog) The NBA is a model for immigration policy. nytimes.com)

Financial Advising 242

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 242

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

economist.com) Some 2023 books that stuck with Ezra Klein including Zeke Faux’s “Number Go Up.” stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. unemployment rate. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 261