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They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. ” A bit of quick math: 726,600/0.987 = 736,170 (starting point). 726,600 – 736,170 = -9,570.
As Paul Krugman recently wrote on his excellent Substack , using a chart identical to the one immediately above (Paul used FRED ): “People may imagine that government is a bigger part of the economy than it is because of all the money we spend supporting retired Americans, covering their health bills, and so on [Chart 1].
ritholtz.com) Compounding math is often confounding. feld.com) The best economics books of summer including "King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World’s Dominant Currency" by Paul Blustein. theblock.co) Economy Personal income and spending declined in May 2025. fooddive.com) Costco ($COST) is embracing the two-tier economy.
on.spdji.com) It's hard to make the math on hedge funds add up. nytimes.com) Budgeting When you do the math, it's hard to find trillions to save in the federal budget. prospect.org) The math on mass deportation doesn't add up. sherwood.news) Economy Real wages are still rising. Just ask Norway.
These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments. What are some examples?
Recession-proof businesses are more than just smart, they’re essential when economic uncertainty hits. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. But while the economy slows, certain businesses remain steady, and some even thrive. Thats where recession-resistant businesses come in.
Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation. Or why we need less math in music theory. ( Tablet ) see also Welcome to the New Military-Industrial Complex. But there was one font I didnt even notice, even though it was everywhere around me.
Bachelor’s in economics and a BS in computer science from Wellesley in Boston and then an MBA from Harvard Business School. I took a lot of math classes. I couldn’t give up math in computer science. And if you think about, again, our optimizing function, most institutional investors focus on economic returns.
Its just basic math. Does it mean our entire economy is expected to grow much more quickly? What this tells us is that while investors expect the overall US economy to be fairly healthy in the coming years, they expect the biggest tech companies to continue to enjoy much faster growth. What if the Earnings are Rising?
It’s sort of like math with dollar signs attached to it. The economy seems to be doing all right as we talked about, you know, people were worried about recession, it hasn’t materialized yet. And so that caused a general rethinking of the way the economy is going to move going forward. I really like it. I was hooked.
As always, I lead with Wall Street, the markets, and the economy, the objects of my day job. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Economic Strategist blew her call , too. The most bullish call in Sam Ro’s compilation was 5,500, up nearly 20 percent, by Capital Economics. 2024 wasn’t any different.
But let’s start with your background in your career, applied mathematics and economics from Brown and then a Harvard MBA. 00:31:40 [Speaker Changed] So there’s the emotions and then there’s the math, right? We have a very robust economy. We’ll, we’ll get into that in a little bit. 00:37:58 Right?
But before we get to that, let’s start with Bachelor’s in economics from Hamilton, MBA from NYU. And a friend of mine who had gotten fired from this economic consulting firm, got a job at Chase Econometrics, IDC, and said, you have to come over here. Barry Ritholtz : I’m, I’m thrilled to have you. Absolutely.
Professor Stephanie Kelton teaches Public Policy and Economics at SUNY Stony Brook. You get a bachelor’s, a BA and a BS in Economics and Business at California Sacramento, then University of Cambridge, master’s in Philosophy and Economics, then a PhD in economics at the New School. I happened to pick that one.
Yeah, you have to, you know, the conceit of finance is that basically the math is all there is to it. So you mentioned half math, half Shakespeare. Let’s talk about the math side. Never before in American history has a colossally incompetent American president tried to crater the economy. So that’s different.
ft.com) Economy Heavy truck sales fell in February 2025. econbrowser.com) Economic growth was set to slow in 2025, even before DOGE-related uncertainty. stayathomemacro.substack.com) Of course economic policy uncertainty has spiked. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Research links: more than math.
The most likely scenario I laid out, at 70% odds, was one where Trump had to backpedal on most of the tariffs and the economy basically reverted back to where it was before, but with minor damage. It’s interesting because, despite all the constant noise about tariffs, we’re seeing very little actual economic impact.
He’s a super intelligent, thoughtful guy, very well versed in business economics and monetary policy. And when I went there I was gonna be a lawyer and I was gonna major in mathematics and I took my freshman year math and that all went great. I found this conversation absolutely fascinating. And so I made that transition.
theatlantic.com) Economy Interest rates can fall for good (and bad) reasons. downtownjoshbrown.com) The many ways tariffs could impact the economy. readthejointaccount.com) Some signs that economic uncertainty is bleeding through into consumer intentions. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: more than math.
danieldrezner.substack.com) Economy Another 'steady as she goes' weekly initial unemployment claim number. bonddad.blogspot.com) Brian Albrecht, "Economic prosperity doesnt require perfect policies, but it does require stable ones." (wired.com) How the Trump Purge compares to the Red Scare. politico.com) How DOGE has hamstrung the CIA.
on.ft.com) What it took to rebuild Notre Dame (nytimes.com) Budgeting The math on any additional tax cuts is tough. donmoynihan.substack.com) Climate policy IS economic policy. noahpinion.blog) Economy How CPI works. nytimes.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (press.airstreet.com) Will AI eat the browser?
We’ll get to where you work at JP Morgan, but economics bachelor’s from Columbia MBA from Harvard. So I decided to become an economics major and a psychology minor. So the intersection of psychology and economics became really interesting. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.
Sander Gerber : Well, actually I was good at math. Because if you don’t include every single data point, then in the matrix math you have a divide by zero issue. 00:51:51 [Speaker Changed] I think that, you know, everything you learn in business school or economics, you can just throw out the window.
In a tough economy, a guy in his 50s without a high school diploma has it especially tough. None of us wants to end up on the wrong side of maybe (or, as math geeks would have it, the wrong side of variance). AI surely has the potential to disrupt and reorder economic, cultural, and political life. Thus, the index mindset.
It won’t take very much math to put the effect of tariffs into a broader context. The United States is a ~$30 trillion economy; 70% of this annual activity is consumer spending. Imported physical goods account for less than $4 trillion, or approximately 13% of the overall economy.1
gardenandgun.com) Economy The hurricanes are going to mess with economic data for awhile. bloomberg.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: hedge fund math. (frontofficesports.com) Inside the professional mini-golf tour. axios.com) Not a lot to see in the September PPI report.
thebookseller.com) Can AI chatbots do math? sherwood.news) Economy Why the Fed should cut rates now, not September. sherwood.news) Relying on any single economic indicator is a mistake. (theatlantic.com) Meta ($META) is going full-speed on AI. wsj.com) Google ($GOOGL) is backtracking on eliminating cookies in Chrome.
The Federal Reserve is struggling to cool inflation further without damaging the economy. But most of all, it was just simple maths according to Druck. My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The Fed Has No Good Options. The Risk of a Misstep Is Growing. The easy part is over. The easy part is over. The first was don’t lose money.
Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. You can know everything about math and data and markets, but if you don’t control your sense of greed and fear and you’re managing uncertainty in your behavior, none of it matters. None of it matters.
noahpinion.substack.com) Some math behind putting Social Security back on solid footing. armoxon.substack.com) Economy Given everything, why aren't home prices lower? axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (investmentnews.com) Vanguard on the growing popularity of the ETF.
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? Sapient Capital ) • If the U.S.
In fact, because QE reduces interest income it might have a marginally deflationary impact on the economy, all else equal. Interest rates are different and have a much more meaningful impact on the economy by damaging banks and credit markets. Not nothing, but certainly not enough to move the needle of a $30T economy.
Recession-proof businesses can thrive despite an economic downturn. This is because consumers become concerned about the economy or have lost their jobs and means of income. GDP is how overall economic activity is measured for a country. Here are 14 good businesses to start in a bad economy: 1. Baby products.
All companies face the challenges of a slowing economy, rising inflation and a born-again Fed that is determined to bring inflation under control even if it means pushing the economy over the edge. This blocks any attempt to challenge their leadership regardless of their economic interest in the company. Do the Math!
Jobs and services sector news painted a better picture of the economy on Thursday, but as the 10-year Treasury hit 4%, stock prices responded negatively. 3,4 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods. Math errors: Simple addition and subtraction mistakes can delay your return. also helped sentiment.
And this concern was confirmed on Thursday evening when Lululemon warned that economic uncertainty was leading to softer than expected consumer spending. Of all the silly discussions that I’ve had over the years regarding economics I have to say that the tariff discussion is among the very silliest. 2) Tariffs 101.
And so, coming out of school, I studied Economics and Spanish Literature, and I applied to a — a program that actually targeted Liberal Arts majors. I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. It was at Bank One, at the time.
However, the fact remains the economy remains strong, corporate profits are at record levels, unemployment is low, and interest rates remain at attractive levels despite nagging inflation ( see chart below ) and the removal of accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Math Matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.
With the growing complexity of financial products, digital transactions, credit systems, and global economies, todays young adults encounter challenges that previous generations faced much later in life. The Significance of Early Financial Education Financial education has transformed from being a luxury to a necessity.
With the growing complexity of financial products, digital transactions, credit systems, and global economies, today’s young adults encounter challenges that previous generations faced much later in life. The Significance of Early Financial Education Financial education has transformed from being a luxury to a necessity.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. When I look at Europe, I see a, not only a very mature area, but I also see an economy that hasn’t really recovered fully from the pandemic or arguably from the great financial crisis. I have no family history.
One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. Two reasons. What, why do we think that is?
And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. So if you’re under 40, some of this may feel unfamiliar.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. So I get the sense you guys don’t pay a whole lot of attention to the macro economy or geopolitics or what the fed’s doing. Learn math, learn history.
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