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FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Calculated Risk

The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Given the 115pp reduction in bilateral US-China tariffs on May 12, we think a more appropriate characterization could be: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”. The March SEP was pre-“Liberation Day”. annualized.

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Fed's Beige Book: "Overall economic activity rose slightly"

Calculated Risk

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity rose slightly since mid-January. Banking activity was slightly higher on balance among Districts that reported on it. Overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic. Agricultural conditions deteriorated some among reporting Districts.

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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. It is especially true for strategists and forecasters at large brokers and banks. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., One last reminder: All forecasts are marketing.

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The Role and Economic Benefits of Private Credit and BDCs

Wealth Management

The migration of lending away from regulated banks and more transparent public markets creates potential risk.

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NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased; Delinquency Rate "Edged Up"

Calculated Risk

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose Modestly; Delinquency Rates Remain Elevated The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $147 billion (0.8%) in Q3 2024, to $17.94

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NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased $185 Billion in Q2; Delinquencies Elevated

Calculated Risk

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Growth Remains Steady; Auto Loan Originations Pick Up The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $185 billion (1%) in Q2 2025, to $18.39

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Transcript: Melissa Smith, co-Head of Commercial Banking at JPMorgan

The Big Picture

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Melissa Smith, co-Head of Commercial Banking at JPMorgan , is below. Melissa Smith is co-head of commercial banking for JP Morgan. Previously she was co-head of the bank’s Innovation Economy Group. And just to define that middle market sort of means in, in the commercial banking, right?