Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

Excerpts: The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020, and our review will reflect our assessment of those changes. Many estimates of the longer-run level of the policy rate have risen , including those in the Summary of Economic Projections. From Fed Chair Powell: Opening Remarks.

Economics 147

Economics Banking Economy 147

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 8, 2022

Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. With these numbers in hand, we can calculate the free money the Fed gives to banks. Free Money to Banks Annualized Calculation. Free money to banks, Mish calculation. billion has been handed out to banks. Louis Fed, chart by Mish.

Banking 300

Banking Numbers Economics 300

Abnormal Returns

JULY 6, 2023

axios.com) Some banks are holding the line on job cuts. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Seven economics books worth checking out including "For a Dollar and a Dream: State Lotteries in Modern America" by Jonathan D. (platformer.news) Bluesky just raised a new round of capital. techcrunch.com) Just call a tweet a tweet.

Economics 239

Economics Startup Financial Advising Media 239

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 3, 2024

Yet, by taking a measured look at factors driving economic activity and influencing behavior, advisors can help clients face risks they can't control and (hopefully) position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as they develop. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 244

Economics Marketing Marketing Valuation 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). However, there is some concern about banks easing lending standards, and the rapid increase in non-QM loans. Banks generally tightened standards on mortgage loans. I followed up with a brief post on each question.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 1.9

Banking 182

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 182

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Republican Party presidential contenders outline policies on China, Social Security, tax cuts, banking and energy.

Economics 263

Economics Banking Taxes 263

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S. The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report.

Sales 162

Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

On the likely assumption that Italian banks are insolvent, no one in their right mind should have money in Italian banks. Recall the capital controls imposed by the ECB on Greece and Cyprus after bank failures in those countries. Anyone who had money in a bank in Germany had full access to it. No one explains how.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2025

sherwood.news) Finance Daniel Davies, "The essence of managing an investment banking franchise is that the biggest driver of success is the capacity to bear pain." jeffreyptak.substack.com) Global China is more diverse (economic) than you think. wsj.com) AI Alibaba ($BABA) has pivoted to AI. ft.com) Dating apps are leveraging AI.

Media 193

Media Economy Retail Management 193

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The technical academic answer is we are not in a recession, but we are clearly slowing down economically.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 29, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta based on information collected on or before November 17, 2023." Consumer credit remained fairly healthy, but some banks noted a slight uptick in consumer delinquencies. Manufacturing activity was mixed, and manufacturers' outlooks weakened.

Economics 173

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Sales 173

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Continue Steady Increase; Delinquency Transition Rates Remain Elevated for Auto and Credit Cards The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

Economics 205

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 205

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Banking contacts reported slight to modest declines in loan demand. Louis based on information collected on or before October 6, 2023.

Economics 162

Economics Retail Banking Manufacturing 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. . • At 1:45 PM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Moderated Discussion, At the New York Times DealBook Summit, New York, N.Y. •

Government 162

Government Banking Economics 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 8, 2025

Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. -- Monday, February 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, February 11th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Financial Services Food 162

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2023

FOMC Statement: Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Inflation remains elevated.

Economics 324

Economics Accounting Banking Planning 324

Calculated Risk

MARCH 4, 2025

At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. The consensus is for 140,000 payroll jobs added in February, down from 183,000 added in January. At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for February.

Government 147

Government Banking Economics 147

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration. I suggest you go read the entire piece, here.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 316

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 6, 2022

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America executives also warned of hiring slowdowns due to the uncertain economic outlook.

Banking 260

Banking Economics 260

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 1:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market, At the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue N.W.,

Manufacturing 313

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 313

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2023

Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The A to Z of economics : Economic terms, from “absolute advantage” to “zero-sum game”, explained to you in plain English. ( Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Rescue Teetering First Republic.

Banking 304

Banking Education Economics Management 304

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” ” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Marketwatch , Kiplingers , and many others.

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Banking Economy 321

Calculated Risk

APRIL 9, 2025

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2025. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The Philadelphia Feds U.S.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The Philadelphia Feds U.S.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Banking Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Fed's Beige Book On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September , though two Districts reported modest growth. Most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity.

Economics 147

Economics Manufacturing Banking Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 23, 2024

nytimes.com) Policy There are no neobanks without banks. axios.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (nytimes.com) The defense sector can't hire workers fast enough. axios.com) AI Why Apple ($AAPL) is not bring AI to the EU. spyglass.org) AI needs data, including yours.

Medicine 309

Medicine Financial Advising Economy Media 309

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. ” Why? By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 18, 2024

Companies Marc Rubenstein, "PayPal Holdings Inc is not a bank and doesn’t enjoy any of the protections that are afforded to banks." semafor.com) This year's Nobel Prize winners in Economics did not come with universal acclaim. netinterest.co) Why CVS ($CVS) and Walgreen's ($WBA) are struggling.

Assets 276

Assets Financial Advising Communication Banking 276

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2024

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year). emphasis added Projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 312

Banking Economics Marketing Marketing 312

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. I do believe that the economic gains we are going to see in technology justify higher market prices. But that’s a very different discussion than 3% annually for 10 years.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Calculated Risk

APRIL 19, 2025

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, April 24th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 147

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

wsj.com) Revolut now has a UK banking license. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (allstarcharts.com) It's not just the U.S. that is seeing fewer publicly traded companies. wsj.com) In praise of the public pool.

License 286

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 286