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2024 Forecasting Follies

The Better Letter

UBS Asset Management said if its base case soft landing was achieved, “global equities will comfortably ascend to new all-time highs in 2024.” .” Stifel called for a range-bound S&P and growth underperformance. “Tilt to fixed income,” insisted Franklin Templeton. There were a few bulls.

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Transcript: Stephanie Kelton on US Fiscal Policy and the ‘Deficit Myth’

The Big Picture

Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math. And the, the part of the story that we haven’t mentioned, of course, is the war and ener the role of energy in food. And despite the Fed’s zero ERP policy that wildly stimulated asset prices. I mean that was, that was the problem.

Economy 147
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Transcript: Bill Bernstein on Navigating Uncertainty

The Big Picture

Let me start managing assets. Yeah, you have to, you know, the conceit of finance is that basically the math is all there is to it. So you mentioned half math, half Shakespeare. Let’s talk about the math side. I wanna, I want to get into some of the details before we start talking about markets and investing.

Math 130
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Transcript: Karin Risi, Vanguard’s Chief of Strategy & Product

The Big Picture

This is a fascinating conversation if you’re at all interested in what it’s like to be part of a fast growing organization that is racking up trillions of dollars in assets, what it’s like to create new initiatives. The food is great, the history is great. Really, this is Tour de Force conversation.

Clients 130
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Wired ) • Ozempic Could Crush the Junk Food Industry. As revolutionary new weight-loss drugs turn consumers off ultraprocessed foods, the industry is on the hunt for new products. ( He is the portfolio manager of the Return Stacked ETF Suite, manging 800 million in ETF assets. But It Is Fighting Back.

Food 162
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Transcript: Christine Phillpotts, Ariel Investments

The Big Picture

And to round out your background, you spend time at Alliance Bernstein, JP Morgan Asset Management and Morgan Stanley. Which was interesting because I actually started my career at JP Morgan Asset Management in the high yield and investment grade credit research team. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.

Investing 147
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Wall Street Journal ) • From Math Camp to Handcuffs: FTX’s Downfall Was an Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal : Gary Wang and Sam Bankman-Fried are offering dueling accounts of the FTX fiasco and of who’s ultimately to blame. A flair for comfort food is understandably a requisite skill for any chef working in this environment. (

Math 290