Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Tuesday, November 19th -- 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October. The consensus is for a reading of 42, down from 44.

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing Sales Numbers Economics 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1 The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.

Clients 270

Clients Numbers Investing Investments 270

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% reports Marchs sales pace fell 2.3

Sales 213

Sales Marketing Marketing Numbers 213

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 13, 2025

Other key findings from the survey included a gap between long-term investment return expectations of investors and advisors (12.6%

Financial Planner 223

Financial Planner Financial Advisor Tax Planning Clients 223

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2025

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 13th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, January 14th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% down from 0.2.

Retail 162

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 162

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Wednesday, September 18th -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. The consensus is for a 0.1% 10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for 3.85

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. 2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, December 5th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. million from 7.86

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 24, 2025

The text accompanying that chart reads: “ Consumption: in 2024, one third of GDP came from government spending, a record high excluding periods of war or crisis; this was financed by 6-7% budget deficits, another unwelcome peacetime record.” How can this be? Maybe my animus toward DOGE is misplaced. Both the Wall St.

Government 310

Government Investing Investments Economy 310

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third estimate). 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2024 The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 262

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Investing 281

Investing Investments Numbers Economics 281

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

This was before the recent surge in economic uncertainty and stock market volatility that might impact existing home sales. Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in February.

Marketing 162

Marketing Marketing Sales Numbers 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

bloomberg.com) Traditional actively managed equity mutual funds saw record outflows in 2024. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com) Economy The October Case-Shiller numbers showed a 3.6% nextbigideaclub.com) 11 of the best things from 2024 including 'The Wild Robot.' (cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. Well, you should.

Media 167

Media Economy Numbers Economics 167

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 30, 2023

Most notable is the fact that industry associations are not the drivers of advisor conferences that they once were; while a decade ago, 75%+ of this "Best Conferences" list consisted of various events run by industry associations, now it numbers less than 25%.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Numbers Budgeting Financial Planning 246

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2025

Global Financial Data ) Vanguard 2025 economic and market outlook : The global monetary easing cycle will be in full swing in 2025, with inflation in most developed economies now within touching distance of central banks targets. If a culture has a third word for a color, it is always red.

Government 246

Government Economy Advertising Engineering 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Most FOMC participants expect around three 25 bp rate cuts in 2024. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024? My guess is there will be around 5 rate cuts in 2024, and the first cut is likely in March.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Numbers Investing 189

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 1, 2024

Welcome to the April 2024 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Estate Planning 242

Estate Planning Financial Advisor Clients Startup 242

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

From the AIA: ABI October 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms begin to moderate The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month was 50.3 , meaning that the share of firms that reported declining billings was essentially equal to the share of firms that reported increasing billings.

Clients 204

Clients Numbers Investing Investments 204

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 1, 2024

Welcome to the January 2024 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Retirement Planning 246

Retirement Planning Startup Clients Compliance 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

JULY 13, 2024

Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. -- Tuesday, July 16th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. up from 1.0. -- Friday, July 19th -- 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2024 The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

The Big Picture

JUNE 13, 2024

I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. Its numbers are fake. And second, always recall what Joan Robinson taught us so long ago: “The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.”

Food 305

Food Numbers Economics Portfolio 305

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2024

From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 320

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 320

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

apolloacademy.com) Finance How cold-storage operator Lineage ($LINE) became the biggest IPO of 2024 so far. vox.com) Work Research on how race, class and location affect economic mobility in the U.S. nytimes.com) The number of Americans earning the minimum wage keeps shrinking. ft.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

License 283

License Financial Advising Economy Economics 283

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Aggregate delinquency rates increased in Q1 2024, with 3.2% rise from 2023Q4.

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 10, 2024

For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released. -- Monday, August 12th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, August 13th -- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July. The key reports this week are July CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2%

Retail 182

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 182

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 25th, 2024 Pre-Holiday Optimism Lifts Markets Stocks advanced last week, powering ahead with pre-holiday optimism despite geopolitical tensions and two disappointing Q3 corporate updates. 5,6 Source: YCharts.com, November 23, 2024. 7 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 11, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | November 11th, 2024 Stocks Surge Post-Election; Fed Cuts Quarter Point Stocks surged higher last week, fueled by the Fed’s rate cut decision and post-election enthusiasm as investors looked to future policy impacts of a Republican-controlled Senate and executive branch. Economic news that showed a 2.2

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2024

@TBPInvictus here: If you’re not aware of the brouhaha that was stirred about a year or so ago when CA Gov Gavin Newsom signed into law (taking effect April 1, 2024) a new $20 minimum wage for so-called “limited service” (a/k/a fast food or QSR) restaurant workers, read up here , here , or here. Its numbers are fake.

Food 290

Food Media Numbers Economics 290

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. As of January 1 2024, about 70% of all mortgage holders had rates three full percentage points below market prices. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint. And that’s before we get to the Lock-In effect ).

Budgeting 321

Budgeting Economics Sales Media 321

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Weekly Market Insights | October 28th, 2024 Stocks Mixed Ahead of Election Stocks were mixed last week as fresh economic data points and election-related uncertainty slowed market momentum. 6,7 Source: YCharts.com, October 26, 2024. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Tuesday: International Trade in Goods.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52