Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. Charlie Ellis is just a legend in the world of investing. He was chairman of the Yale’s Endowment Investment Committee and his, not only did he write 21 books, his new book, rethinking Investing, is just a delightful snack.

Investments 159

Investments Investing Management Engineering 159

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions. for the month. Although the U.S. Multi-family billings have been below 50 for the 33 consecutive months.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investing 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. I prefer single family starts to total starts).

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investing 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023." I have us pausing at 5.4 percent."

Economy 236

Economy Numbers Economics Sales 236

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will wages increase in 2023? YoY range in 2023 according to the CES. This depends on the Fed (next question) and if the economy slides into a recession. How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023?

Economics 225

Economics Sales Retirement Economy 225

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates. axios.com) How higher interest rates are going to affect the economy. (ft.com) On the struggles that Ukrainian refugees have had trying to make ends meet in new countries. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Thursday linkfest.

Investments 245

Investments Investing Financial Advising Startup 245

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

newsletter.rationalwalk.com) Economy How to parse a CPI report. morningstar.com) Was employment growth in 2023 lower than initially thought? (bloomberg.com) KKR ($KKR) is getting out of the music rights business. ft.com) Will Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) ever pay a dividend?

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Investments Investing Financial Advising Media 260

Calculated Risk

MARCH 22, 2023

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The combination of an unsettled economy and high interest rates is causing investors and property owners to take a closer look at their plans for construction projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon.

Economy 361

Economy Investing Investments Planning 361

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Welcome to the October 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

Communication 246

Communication Portfolio Management Clients Tax Planning 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 7, 2024

Top clicks this week Some of the best charts of 2023. entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' allstarcharts.com) How major asset classes performed in December 2023. awealthofcommonsense.com) An example of how finding a (highly) niche investment strategy works in practice.

Assets 290

Assets Economy Investing Investments 290

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here were my questions from December 2022: 10) Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

 At the Money: Stock Picking vs. Value Investing with Jeremy Schwartz, Wisdom Tree. Should value investing be part of that strategy? TRANSCRIPT: Jeremy Schwartz Value Investing Barry Ritholtz : How much you pay for your stocks has a giant impact on how well they perform. What Is value investing?

Investments 293

Investments Investing Valuation Portfolio 293

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. For 2023, I used a 2.6%

Economy 200

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023?

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. Stay invested. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking.

Distribution 271

Distribution Economy Clients Investing 271

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 19, 2023

ft.com) UBS wants to rebuild its investment banking in the U.S. defector.com) Economy Single-family housing starts jumped in November. econbrowser.com) Why a soft landing in 2023 occurred despite the naysayers. stayathomemacro.substack.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Research links: persistent investment factors.

Financial Advising 283

Financial Advising Startup Media Banking 283

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 5, 2024

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023.

Economy 259

Economy Economics Management Assets 259

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

integratinginvestor.com) Strategy ESG or not, people are going to invest according to their values. axios.com) Finance Wherever you look PE firms are struggling to exit investments. news.crunchbase.com) Economy Fed officials talk WAY too much these days. time.com) Tyler Cowen's favorite fiction books of 2023.

Financial Advising 272

Financial Advising Media Economy Sales 272

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 19, 2024

Markets There is big difference between politics and policies when it comes to investing. marginalrevolution.com) Economy Prices don't decline, but wages can increase. bloomberg.com) The homicide rate fell in 2023 and is plunging in 2024. optimisticallie.com) 20 pandemic darlings that have yet to rebound. jasher.substack.com)

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Startup Manufacturing Media 293

Abnormal Returns

JULY 9, 2023

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. wsj.com) There is no Social Security trust fund to invest. vox.com) Economy Will interest rates eventually slow the U.S. tker.co) Nonresidential investment keeps growing.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Economy Taxes Media 246

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. axios.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) would 'invest' in OpenAI. ft.com) Policy Why housing (policy) matters so much for the economy. wsj.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking mid-2% growth. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 289

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 12, 2023

ft.com) Citadel Investments had (another) good year. msn.com) Economy October CPI came in at a 3.1% newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media 75 facts from 2023 including '17% of the world’s gold is held by Indian retail consumers.' morningstar.com) Finance $4 trillion of 'dry powder' for PE. Opportunity or threat?

Financial Advising 272

Financial Advising Retail Media Economy 272

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 24, 2023

morningstar.com) Is gold a good investment? blockworks.co) Five insights from Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." (ft.com) AngelList on the state of early-stage venture capital in Q3 2023. bloomberg.com) Global Germany's economy has badly lagged since the pandemic.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Economy Media Numbers 261

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 18, 2023

allstarcharts.com) Strategy The best thing you could have done in 2023 was to stick to your plan. awealthofcommonsense.com) It was hard to lose money in 2023, but here are five ways it may have happened. bbc.com) How young Chinese are dealing with a lethargic economy. ft.com) Here are some more signs of market strength.

Financial Advising 272

Financial Advising Startup Media Government 272

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. wsj.com) Why American Equity Investment Life ($AEL) is so sought after. wsj.com) Economy Continuing unemployment claims continue to trend higher. Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close.

Financial Advising 270

Financial Advising Startup Food Media 270

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Markets The performance of major asset classes in November 2023. on.spdji.com) The magnificent seven stocks are having a big 2023, in part because they had a rough 2022. morningstar.com) Economy Housing is holding up U.S. ft.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: an investing paradox.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Media Economy Management 261

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2024

visualcapitalist.com) Some more charts from 2023 including the drop in IPO activity. axios.com) ETFs The pace of ETF closures picked up in 2023. etf.com) Dating Match Group ($MTCH) has attracted an activist investor in Elliott Investment Management. Markets The periodic table of commodity returns over the past decade.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 260

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) No investor, or investment strategy, is perfect. talkingbiznews.com) Ten books that made us think in 2023 including "Ours Was the Shining Future" by David Leonhardt. stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 261

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 5, 2023

theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why you should avoid big investment shifts. currentaffairs.org) Economy The Sahm rule did not trigger in October 2023. stayathomemacro.substack.com) How the current post-Covid economy resembles the post-WWII economy. Markets Small and mid-cap stocks have badly lagged large caps.

Assets 266

Assets Financial Advising Healthcare Economy 266

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 4, 2024

wsj.com) Companies Ark Investment Management is still (very) bullish on Tesla ($TSLA). om.co) Economy Still no sign of a pickup in layoffs. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media 177 ways the world got better in 2023 including 'In California, a 400-acre oil field is being transformed into a nature preserve.' kottke.org)

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Banking Economy 259

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2023

(wsj.com) Six lessons from William Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing." markets.businessinsider.com) Investors who bought the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust ($GBTC) at a big discount are looking good. hypercritical.co) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 2.6% rise in house prices through August 2023.

Assets 257

Assets Financial Advising Media Economy 257