The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! Might 2023 be a fourth major March bottom? Have a great 2023 – embrace risk, but avoid unforced errors.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Through November, starts were down 4.3%

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% million jobs in 2023.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing , is below. Charlie Ellis is just a legend in the world of investing. He was chairman of the Yale’s Endowment Investment Committee and his, not only did he write 21 books, his new book, rethinking Investing, is just a delightful snack.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. The red line is for 2023.

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Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Consumers, meanwhile, have just about burned their way through their post-COVID savings, which was the main driver for GDP growth in 2023.

Economics 246

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. range in Q4 2023. Will the core inflation rate decrease in 2023, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2023? The key question is will inflation continue to trend down towards the Fed's target in 2023?

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. range in Q4 2023. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2023? Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).

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Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The pace of the decline remains slower at firms with an institutional specialization, but billings have still declined nearly every month since mid-2023. for the month.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will wages increase in 2023? YoY range in 2023 according to the CES. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #7 for 2023: How much will wages increase in 2023?

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will job growth slow in 2023? range in Q4 2023. My sense is the FOMC is overly pessimistic, and my guess is there will be something like 400 to 800 thousand jobs added in 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. A majority of FOMC participants expect three or even four 25 bp rate hikes in 2023. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023? We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023."

Economy 236

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. in 2024 (around 2.6% Q4-over-Q4). Q4-over-Q4).

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Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7,

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), Second Quarter 2023 and Comprehensive Update Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. This graph uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 29, 2024

The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures increased at a 3.2% Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q4 compared to Q3 and was up 5% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. annual pace in Q4. Click on graph for larger image.

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Wealth Management

APRIL 10, 2023

Foreign investors are pausing activity and refocusing on less traditional real estate sectors amid economic uncertainty, reports Commercial Observer. Mortgage Professional America asks whether real estate remains a good investment choice in an inflationary environment.

Economics 277

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Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 18, 2023

wsj.com) Why Germany's economic growth is slowing, relative to the rest of Europe. financial-planning.com) Economy Forecasters keep boosting 2023 growth estimates. (washingtonpost.com) Global Novo Nordisk ($NVO) dominates the Danish stock market. economist.com) China is becoming Japan, demographically.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2023

Most people believe that investing is the science of generating a return on capital. At its heart, investing is a problem-solving exercise , filled with opportunities that reveal the errors we all make. This should be reflected in how we invest. That is an accurate but incomplete assessment. – “ Future ” demands optimism.

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Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Since Q1 real GDP growth was at 1.3%

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Peter Mallouk points out that investments made on days of all-time highs outperform investments made on all other days, Technicians will tell you All-Time Highs are bullish, because there is no selling resistance; behavioral economics suggests it’s bullish due to FOMO and plain old greed.

Economics 349

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2023

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2023: How much will Residential investment change in 2023? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023? A brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. How much will RI change in 2023?

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Calculated Risk

JUNE 29, 2023

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, First Quarter 2023 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Government 266

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 24, 2022

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. With a variety of economic storm clouds continuing to gather, we are likely looking at a period of slower growth going forward.”. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This index has been positive for 18 consecutive months.

Economics 343

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The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Axios reported yesterday that “2024 will be the U.S.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

[Sept 29th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 29, unchanged from September 27 after rounding. Sept 29th estimate]

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The Big Picture

MAY 24, 2023

This week saw the release of the Fed’s big annual research report, Economic Well-Being of U.S. It’s chock full of great charts and analyses, covering everything from Income, Employment, Expenses, Banking and Credit, Housing, Student Loans, Retirement and Investments, and Overall Financial Well-Being. Households in 2022.

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. Therefore, the anticipated mild economic growth in 2023 could cause the DMI to moderate over the year, but it is unlikely to fall below historical norms.” Martin notes, commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator.

Healthcare 276

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

[Sept 6th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 6, unchanged from September 1 after rounding. Sept 6th estimate]

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Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 9, 2023

Strategy The key to successful investing is patience. nytimes.com) Economics Claudia Goldin has won the 2023 Nobel Prize in Economics. blog.validea.com) Five common mistakes investors make. blogs.cfainstitute.org) When aiming down the middle makes sense. humbledollar.com) Finance Private credit is the new bank.

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Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2024

Markets The S&P 500 returned 2.43% in August 2023. axios.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) would 'invest' in OpenAI. econbrowser.com) The economic data through July were largely positive. apolloacademy.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. on.spdji.com) There are too many markets at all-time highs to count.

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Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

Congrats again to the Dow on an amazing run and to all the investors over the years who have benefited by sticking to their investment plans. US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend.

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Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Market: This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opprtunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. Who will be this years champion? Lets break it down ( click here to see the full bracket).

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Kick it off right with our first day of the year reads: • Everything Wall Street Got Wrong in 2023 : Stocks were supposed to slump and bonds rally as the Fed drove the US into a recession. Stay invested. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S.

Economy 271

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Now it seems like most forecasts are for a recession in 2023. One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. My answer is: Maybe.

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