Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

The pace of the decline remains slower at firms with an institutional specialization, but billings have still declined nearly every month since mid-2023. In addition, billings continued to decline at firms of all specializations this month, particularly at firms with commercial/industrial and multifamily residential specializations.

Economy

Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2025

If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 12%. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. The institutional segment was up 27% over the same period, following a very weak March last year.

Healthcare

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. in 2024 (around 2.6% Q4-over-Q4). Q4-over-Q4).

Economy

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Wealth Management

JULY 2, 2025

As of year-end 2023, Gen X made up a quarter of U.S. In comparison, only 9% of advisors’ clients in 2023 were millennials or Gen Z members. They also make up the second biggest client base for financial advisors after baby boomers. advisors’ clients, up from 20% in 2021, according to a survey Cerulli conducted in 2024.

Financial Advisor

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

From the NAHB: Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence Builder confidence fell sharply in May on growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns, building material cost uncertainty and the cloudy economic outlook.

Sales

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 29, 2024

First, implied interest rate volatility has surged, as many market participants were caught off-guard by the string of unexpectedly strong economic releases (and slightly higher inflation releases) following the Fed’s rate decision. on October 28, its highest reading since October 30, 2023. on September 17 to 130.92

Economics

Calculated Risk

APRIL 2, 2025

Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Purchase application activity is up about 26% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 5% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70

Government

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Incoming economic data are likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for now, while uncertainties about economic policy are likely to keep longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, steady at these levels.. percent from 7.09 percent, with points decreasing to 0.62 Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

Purchase applications were up over the week and continue to run ahead of last year's pace as increased housing inventory in many markets has been supporting some transaction volume, despite the economic uncertainty.. percent from 6.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.67 emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Economics

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. This was in sharp contrast to all the recession calls you saw in 2022 and 2023, including signals from other popular leading economic indicators.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 7, 2025

The economic news last week included a negative reading for first-quarter GDP growth and further signs of contraction in the manufacturing sector, mixed with a solid employment report for April. Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 and is 8% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Economics

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

In 2023, he tweeted a list of overlooked facts. This was just before an 81% collapse that bottomed in December 2023. This was impossible, and I said so: Either you guys are either going to win the Nobel prize in economics or go to jail. The most devastating: 98% of all ARKK investors were underwater.

Investments

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2025

Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics

Calculated Risk

JUNE 25, 2025

The combination of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, current economic conditions, and last week’s FOMC meeting resulted in slightly lower Treasury rates on average. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 9% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Economics

Calculated Risk

JULY 16, 2025

Added Kan, “Purchase applications remained sensitive to both the uncertain economic outlook and the volatility in rates and declined to the slowest pace since May. Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Economy

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2025

Despite the economic uncertainty, the increase in home inventory means there are additional properties to buy, unlike the last two years, and this supply is supporting more transactions. Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 and is 10% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Government

Calculated Risk

APRIL 23, 2025

Similar to the previous week, economic uncertainty and rate volatility impacted prospective homebuyers as we saw a 7 percent decline in purchase applications. Purchase application activity is up about 22% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 2% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. percent was the lowest since January.

Government

Calculated Risk

APRIL 9, 2025

Mortgage applications increased by 20 percent to its highest level since September 2024, driven by purchase and refinance applications picking up in a volatile week where economic uncertainty caused rates to drop across the board. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.61 Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

The Fed Is Caught Between a Rock and a Cold Hard and Lonely Place Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave us the most detailed description of how the Fed is thinking about policy in the face of massive tariffs in a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, April 16. to above 4.6% (thankfully, it didn’t go higher than 4.2%).

Marketing

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2024

Excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. year-to-date compared to the same period in 2023 (due to a sharp decline in multi-family starts).

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 18, 2025

Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions.” Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 10% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.

Government

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

While there are reasons for recent declines, we view it in part as a perfectly normal pause after the gains of 2023 and 2024. million in 2023 but well in the ballpark of what we saw in 2017-2019 (2.1 It was strong even in 2022 and 2023, which was another clue that a recession wasnt imminent. on Friday alone. Thats up from 3.7%

Marketing

International College of Financial Planning

JUNE 17, 2025

Introduction to GIFT City and Its Legal-Economic Status The Gujarat International Finance Tech-City, commonly referred to as GIFT City, is a landmark initiative by the Government of India aimed at creating a world-class financial centre within the country.

Compliance

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

It is also the first time the S&P 500 is negative (although only down 1%) over three calendar months since October 2023. Given our overall still positive economic backdrop, to see this much worry in the air is actually rather bullish and why we dont expect the recent weakness to spiral out of control. on an annualized basis).

Marketing

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 23, 2024

In 2023, the S&P 500 also tacked on 24 percent for the full year. 8 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Consumer Confidence. Source: I nvestors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar ; December 16, 2024 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Tuesday: Durable Goods. New Home Sales.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

APRIL 16, 2025

Purchase volume remains almost 13 percent above last years level, but economic uncertainty and the volatility in rates is likely to make at least some prospective buyers more hesitant to move forward with a purchase, said Mike Fratantoni, MBAs SVP and Chief Economist. The ARM share at 9.6 Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Economics

Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 9, 2025

In 1916, the number of stocks represented by the DJIA increased to 20 and remained at that level until moving up to its current 30-count in 1928 to reflect the (soon-to-end) economic boom of the Roaring 1920s. Investopedia, April 13, 2023 [link] 14. economy and stock market over time. Its reputation as a proxy for the U.S.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

Between mid-2023 and mid-2024, we saw the unemployment rate move higher even as payroll growth remained fairly strong. If economic growth is expected to be strong, there’s presumably less reason for the Fed to cut rates by a lot. But there’s a lot more going on below the surface. But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 6, 2025

As you can see below, over the course of the year, we went from a largely inverted yield curve at the end of 2023 (short-term rates higher than long-term rates) to a normally sloped curve at the end of 2024 (higher long-term rates). That change tells a lot of the economic story for the year.

Marketing

Trade Brains

JULY 9, 2025

India’s inflation history provides crucial context, with an average annual inflation rate of 7.37% from 1960-2023, reaching an all-time high of 28.60% in 1974. More recently, the annual inflation rate in India was recorded at 6.95% in 2023. For Indian retirees, that’s a structural challenge.

Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 8, 2025

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist,break down what the recent jobs numbers and economic data are really telling us. Key Takeaways: Job growth is decelerating Just 35,000 jobs added monthly on average in the last 3 months — down sharply from 2023’s pace of 150K–200K/month.

Economy