Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Let's dig in some more on Permanent Portfolio quadrant style. Next is the allocation for the United States Sovereign Wealth Fund ETF that I made up a few days ago and next to that is my most recent attempt from November to recreate the Cockroach Portfolio which is managed by Mutiny Funds. That is a very specialized type of result.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Taxes Numbers Investing 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 15, 2025

You're 81 and been taking income from your portfolio for 15 years, what matters to you more, that you can continue to take what you need from your portfolio or that four year run in your mid-50's when you beat (or lagged) the market? If you're 81 and can no longer meet your income need from your portfolio, that is what matters.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Medical Marketing Marketing 59

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

My job is not to give policy advice to the Fed, but to interpret what they are doing and its most likely impact on our portfolios. See also : Glenn Hubbard: Post-pandemic fiscal spending bears much of the blame for US inflation (FT, November 14, 2022). Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world (ECB Forum, June 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Government 344

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 344

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Regardless, it’s a worthwhile exercise to wargame Fed actions, and consider what they might mean to your portfolio and/or personal finances. Previously : Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). When Your Only Tool is a Hammer (November 1, 2022). October 7, 2022). Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022).

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Concentrated portfolio risk. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) May 5, 2022. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) August 11, 2022.

Taxes 334

Taxes Portfolio Management Investing 334

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

After a big gap opening, latecomers piled in; many had been sitting on the sidelines following a challenging 2022, while others got panicked out during the 10% October drawdown. The problem is those behaviors are so destructive to a portfolio. and it stops you from messing with your primary portfolio. ~~~ Good investing is boring.

Investments 344

Investments Investing Portfolio Economics 344

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022. Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). June 9, 2022). Blame the Fed For Everything!

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

All costs impact your returns, but high or excessive fees have an enormous impact as they compound or, more accurately, lessen your portfolios compounding over time. I have made some fortuitously timed buys, including Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) calls purchased during the October 2022 lows.

Investing 268

Investing Investments Accounting Startup 268

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. But here is the unexpected thing about those predictions: Even if your forecast of future events is correct, the odds are against you capturing it in your portfolio. Beware of Value Traps : Be careful picking through 2022’s refuse-hunting for a bargain.

Economy 329

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 329

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. ft.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a historically bad year. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. wsj.com) Matt Levine, "What happened at FTX?

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Medical Economics Government 275

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak. The GFC and the pandemic were global phenomena; the 2022 market was the worst since 1981 for a 60/40 portfolio.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

newsletter.rationalwalk.com) Berkshire's portfolio highlights the impact of a few key positive outliers. bonddad.blogspot.com) Real home prices are a touch below the 2022 peak. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Would you invest in Norway's sovereign wealth fund if you could? 2024 results. billion in a share tender offer.

Startup 146

Startup Media Economy Portfolio 146

Wealth Management

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

Use of active ETFs when constructing portfolios rose to 40% of advisors at the end of 2024, up from 13% in 2022. Strategic beta products and liquid alts are also on the rise.

Portfolio 213

Portfolio 213

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2023

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.11% in February 2022. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.04% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.11% in January). This is below the pre-pandemic levels.

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 2, 2025

a ski chalet), assessing whether it will lead to greater overall wellbeing, or, alternatively, more stress, is more challenging Enjoy the 'light' reading!

Financial Planner 182

Financial Planner CFP Financial Advisor Retirement 182

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 17, 2025

WAAV seems Permanent Portfolio inspired which is why I threw in AQRIX and PRPFX along with VBAIX as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio makes sense as a benchmark. Both the ACWI and SPY versions outperformed AQRIX which is sort of a risk parity fund and PRPFX which is the Permanent Portfolio. The results are a mixed bag.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Taxes Numbers 52

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 11, 2024

And on today’s edition of at the money, we’re going to discuss how Wall Street has been using personal health to gain a competitive advantage to help us understand all of this and its implications for your portfolio. How does that show up in our portfolios? Not only does that show up in our portfolios.

Food 148

Food Portfolio Management Marketing 148

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of December 31, 2022. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Portfolio 262

Portfolio Planning Numbers 262

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Markets Four things that mattered for portfolios in 2022. morningstar.com) Gasoline prices are ending 2022 below where they were a year ago. theinformation.com) Books 16 notable finance books from 2022 including "The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future" by Sebastian Mallaby. John Mandel.

Financial Advising 225

Financial Advising Media Economy Portfolio 225

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Those of you looking for income might consider putting fresh money to work building a bespoke muni portfolio, or buying the appropriate muni fund for your circumstances. ( March 3, 2023) 10 Bad Takes On This Market (May 19, 2023) Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022) Secular vs. Cyclical Markets (May 16, 2022) End of the Secular Bull?

Taxes 289

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 289

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Taxes 98

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

This came up yesterday on Portfolio Rescue with Ben Carlson. September 29, 2023) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Source : U.S. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 289

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 289

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

Within the equity portion of your portfolios, they can provide some measure of diversification. Oversimplifying them into narratives or relying on context-free myths will not serve your portfolio well. Consider 4 geographic regions: The US, the Developed world Ex US, Emerging markets, and Frontier. Markets are complex mechanisms.

Economics 300

Economics Marketing Marketing Portfolio 300

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.74% as of July 31, 2022.

Portfolio 223

Portfolio Planning Numbers 223

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2022 Inflation Peak : Inflation is structurally out of control and going to remain at high levels for perhaps even years to come. This soon became a widespread belief even as inflation peaked in June 2022 and fell as quickly as it rose.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Marketing Marketing 340

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Dow lead the major indices in 2022. in 2022 vs. 2021. ritholtz.com) It's been a long time since international stocks outperformed the U.S.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.69% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.72% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.69% as of September 30, 2022.

Numbers 237

Numbers Portfolio Planning 237

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 27, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) 2022 shows that every portfolio strategy comes under pressure. wsj.com) Intel ($INTC) had a tough 2022 and 2023 isn't looking better. Strategy The investment landscape has completely transformed in the past century. portfoliocharts.com) Why so many investors get caught up in return chasing.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Distribution Valuation Media 245

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 15, 2024

What's unique about Mark, though, is how he uses a liability-driven-investing approach to build retirement portfolios and manage sequence of return risk, with a particular focus on using closed end bond funds to generate income needed to cover his client's expenses during the early (and most financially dangerous) years of retirement.

Retirement 130

Retirement Portfolio Management Investing 130

Abnormal Returns

JULY 31, 2023

investmentnews.com) Portfolio management How to evaluate a client's investment portfolio. theatlantic.com) 2022 saw a jump in investment fraud. (riaintel.com) Creative Planning has inked a custody deal with Goldman Sachs ($GS). riabiz.com) Savvy Wealth is pushing hard on the AI front.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Estate Planning Portfolio Management Retirement 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Barron's had an article about rebalancing portfolios noting that the run in stocks was a good time to rebalance the equity allocation back down closer to target, whatever that might be and also rebalance down some of the relative winners. Over the years, I've trimmed here and there when holdings get too big relative to the portfolio.

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Taxes Clients Financial Advisor 96

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 11, 2023

Markets How does the 60/40 portfolio perform after big down years? wsj.com) BITO Bitcoin tanked in 2022 but Bitcoin futures ETPs held in there. (wsj.com) Europe Europe has gotten lucky this Winter, weather-wise. economist.com) Belgium and the Netherlands intercepted a record-breaking 160 metric tonnes of cocaine in 2022.

Financial Advising 244

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 244

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. I have dozens of examples of traders who made the right call for some of the above for all the wrong reasons.

Marketing 305

Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 305

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 12, 2022

allstarcharts.com) The all-weather portfolio has not fared well in 2022. Strategy Sometimes your best trade is a loss. blog.validea.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is shifting more production out of China. 9to5mac.com) How Microsoft ($MSFT) could bring VR to the enterprise.

Financial Advising 236

Financial Advising Startup Media Economy 236

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 0.69% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.70% as of October 31, 2022.

Portfolio 208

Portfolio Numbers Planning 208