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Does the ISM Services Index Really Reflect the Real World?

Mish Talk

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 Huge PMI Divergences If you want to believe the economy is rip roaring, then you believe ISM. percent, 2.4

Economy 190
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Market Commentary: ‘Tis the Season — Five Things to Know About Markets in December

Carson Wealth

In the past decade it has been only the 10 th best month, thanks in part to a 6% drop in 2022 and a 9% crash in 2018. The past few weeks we’ve discussed why we think this bull market is alive and well, but we also see no major reasons to expect the economy to fall into a recession in 2025.

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Market Commentary: Stocks Hit New Highs Amid a Year of Milestones

Carson Wealth

This current bull market is nearly 26 months old and is now up more than 70% from the mid-October 2022 lows. Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. It was strong even in 2022 and 2023, which was another clue that a recession wasnt imminent.

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Market Commentary: Sentiment Remains Extreme as Fed Warns of Risks

Carson Wealth

Powell’s prepared remarks started off by saying the economy was/is in good shape, including labor markets and the inflation picture. The language is very similar to what Powell used to say back in 2022 and 2023, when they were raising rates. to above 4.6% (thankfully, it didn’t go higher than 4.2%).

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Market Commentary: Strong Jobs Report Gets the “Good News Is Bad News” Treatment

Carson Wealth

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

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Market Commentary: How to Think About the S&P 500 Correction

Carson Wealth

In last weeks commentary, we took a look at tariff policy, the market uncertainty it was creating, and what was going on in the broader economy. But whether were looking at the current state of the economy or market history, our focus is always on facts over feelings. These guidelines dont mean we ignore context.

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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Approaching All-Time High but US Economic Momentum Slowing

Carson Wealth

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. The economy created 139,000 jobs in May (above expectations for a 126,000 increase) and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector.