Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates.

Sales

The Big Picture

JUNE 3, 2025

For a period of ~20 years, beginning after the September 11th attack, accelerating after the GFC, and running up until the 2022 rate hikes, the United States enjoyed incredibly low interest rates. Whether it was ideology, economic innumeracy, or simply idiocy does not matter. And suppose you were a member of Congress.

Economics

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in January.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Retail

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.7% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.47 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in June.

Education

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December , according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.4 billion (0.7

Food

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.5 billion (0.7 percent from one year ago.

Food

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2024

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September: Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.3 billion (0.5

Food

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.8% Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. in 2024 (around 2.6% Q4-over-Q4). Q4-over-Q4).

Economy

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis Brief excerpt: Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States: How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis U.S.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in April.

Numbers

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.68 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in July, up from 3.8%

Numbers

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining delinquency rates in the auto loan market. said Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. HELOC balances rose by $9 billion to $396 billion, representing the eleventh consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022.

Economics

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

US LEI Deteriorates Right now, our proprietary US Leading Economic Index (LEI) is telling us that economic momentum is slowing and the economy is growing below trend. Current levels are similar to what we saw in mid-2022, when recession risks were elevated but the economy never plunged into an actual recession.

Economics

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth increased sharply in 2021 and for most of 2022. in July 2022.

Economics

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2025

From the NAHB: Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence Builder confidence fell sharply in May on growing uncertainties stemming from elevated interest rates, tariff concerns, building material cost uncertainty and the cloudy economic outlook.

Sales

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Calculated Risk

MAY 30, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025 Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April , according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.8 billion (0.2 percent from one year ago.

Food

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 11, 2024

2022, anybody who’s involved with markets for years, think of 2022 for one moment, and you know, it was a stressful time and bear markets occur periodically. So the markets are stressful. I don’t know, every five or six years. What sort of advantages accrue to us? Well, it begins with executive functioning.

Food

Carson Wealth

APRIL 21, 2025

The Fed Is Caught Between a Rock and a Cold Hard and Lonely Place Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave us the most detailed description of how the Fed is thinking about policy in the face of massive tariffs in a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, April 16. to above 4.6% (thankfully, it didn’t go higher than 4.2%).

Marketing

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Most notable was the strength of billings growth in the West, where the score was the highest it has been since mid-2022. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.

Economics

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

I have made some fortuitously timed buys, including Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) calls purchased during the October 2022 lows. This was impossible, and I said so: Either you guys are either going to win the Nobel prize in economics or go to jail. I was up so much on that trade that my trading demons were emboldened. There is nothing in between.

Investing

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.9 billion (0.4

Food

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales

Nationwide Financial

AUGUST 21, 2024

The positive correlation between stocks and bonds, especially in 2022, hurt investors in balanced portfolios such as the traditional 60/40 stock/bond blended models. That’s why the traditional 60/40 portfolio suffered greatly in 2022, as stock and bond values correlated positively and declined in tandem.

Portfolio

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty-seven consecutive months (with revisions).

Clients

Nationwide Financial

AUGUST 28, 2024

year over year, its best quarter since Q2 2022. Earnings for the “Magnificent 7” companies grew earnings by around 35%, while the other 493 S&P 500 stocks advanced by 3.6%, recording their first year-over-year earnings growth since Q4 of 2022. See the accompanying chart.)

Marketing

Discipline Funds

APRIL 30, 2025

The NBER defines a recession as A significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. I wish I’d owned a lot more given that it’s up 84% since 2022 while the global stock market is up 15% and aggregate bonds are down -3.5%. It’s down 22% from its 2022 highs.

Insurance

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

As you can see, policy rate expectations have been creeping up since last summer, mostly as the labor market data has come in better than expected (along with other economic data). It was strong even in 2022 and 2023, which was another clue that a recession wasnt imminent. A year ago today, markets priced in seven cuts (1.7%-points

Marketing

Harness Wealth

APRIL 4, 2025

In transactions between unrelated parties, economic forces such as the law of supply and demand produce a fair price; when the entities to the transaction are controlled by the same party, the pricing of the transaction is within the groups control. During fiscal years 2022 through 2024, 87.3% Wrappe, J.D.,

Taxes

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Those other times we saw fear similar to this were times like the recession and near bear market of 1990, October 2008 and March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis, and the end of the bear market in 2022. And lower exports are a drag on US economic growth. Wait, Is GDP Growth Really Going To Be Negative in Q1?

Marketing

The Big Picture

JULY 1, 2025

Bachelor’s in economics and a BS in computer science from Wellesley in Boston and then an MBA from Harvard Business School. So it was Pascal then c plus plus, and then I took an economics class and that’s when the lights went off because it was a very mathematical field in many ways, but also with a link to the Rio economy.

Investing

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 6, 2025

That change tells a lot of the economic story for the year. Theres also the added factor of a rebound in the subdued economic confidence weve seen in recent years. Lingering pandemic fatigue and inflation spiking to its highest level in over 40 years in mid-2022 significantly dampened economic sentiment.

Marketing