Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. Alas, today’s inflation is 1) not like that of the 1970s; 2) the economy is nothing like the 1980s double-dip recession; and 3) Jerome Powell is no Paul Volcker. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

Economy 310

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 310

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 75

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 75

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.) on average, well above the 7.1%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. Congrats again to the Dow on an amazing run and to all the investors over the years who have benefited by sticking to their investment plans. April was revised down by 30,000 from 177,000 to 147,000.

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." (bloomberg.com) Data from the U.S.

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Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.

Marketing 69

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 69

The Big Picture

MARCH 9, 2023

In this space, Hedge funds lag finance, which in turn lags the broader economy. She points to studies that show that male-dominated hedge funds represent a missed opportunity to generate more alpha — it’s simply a poor investment strategy.

Wealth Management 159

Wealth Management Banking Management Engineering 159

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2017 - 2019 levels. 7) Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? This was correct.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2023

But when the calendar changed from October to November in 2019, so too did the entire streaming industry. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out : The flush savings accounts and cheap credit that helped keep Americans spending at high rates since 2020 are disappearing. Washington Post ) see also Politicians Want to Keep Money Out of E.S.G.

Startup 276

Startup Economics Banking Economy 276

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 78

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? No less an authority on the economy than the Federal Reserve stated, “May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the onset of the pandemic, in large part due to an influx of guests for the Taylor Swift concerts in the city.” economy afloat this summer!

Economy 98

Economy Clients Economics Investments 98

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

in November 2019. This depends on the Fed (next question) and if the economy slides into a recession. Question #8 for 2023: How much will Residential investment change in 2023? Private measures of wage growth are also showing that wage growth has "slowed substantially". This graph from Indeed , shows posted wage growth.

Economics 225

Economics Sales Retirement Economy 225

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019. 8) Question #8 for 2023: How much will Residential investment change in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs? "My

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. In 2019, average monthly job growth was 166,000. Strong May gains historically suggest more gains to come.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Still, lets focus on where excess inflation is coming from for CPI and compare the November data to December 2019 (when headline and core CPI were up 2.3% in December 2019. Thats adding 0.52%-points to excess headline CPI relative to December 2019, and 0.65%-points to excess core CPI. y/y versus the 2018-2019 average of 3.7%.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Insurance Food 52

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 11, 2023

It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. To us, this is the market’s way of saying the economy will continue to see solid growth next year. Stocks tend to lead the economy, and several major indexes are near new highs, which is a good signal for the economy.

Marketing 143

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 1, 2019

2019 Year-End Planning Letter. Fri, 11/01/2019 - 13:44. Each year’s gift tax annual exclusion expires at the end of that year; therefore clients who wish to use their 2019 exclusion amount should make annual exclusion gifts to all desired beneficiaries before December 31. Opportunity Zone Investments.

Planning 52

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Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

S&P returns (including dividends) since 2019, graph by the excellent portfolio visualizer website. Does it mean our entire economy is expected to grow much more quickly? But what about other investing options? Its always fun to at least look around and understand the larger investing world. 4.3% – 5.3%

Marketing 66

Marketing Marketing Sales Portfolio 66

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. and 2017-2019 pace of 2.8%. economy grew 5.8%

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. History says to expect it.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The economy continues to surprise to the upside, as we will discuss more below. With earnings hitting new highs and the economy continuing to expand, it’s no wonder stocks have hit 42 new all-time highs in 2024. From the end of 2019 through 2024 Q2, real GDP growth was revised up from 9.4% The reason for the rally? in Q2 2024.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economics 96

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 27, 2023

My mid-week morning train reads: • 24 Things I Believe About Investing : Simple beats complex, timing matters less than your holding period, and a good strategy you can stick with is vastly superior to a great one you can’t. ( Chief Investment Officer ) • German Auto Makers Are Pouring $406 Billion Into EVs. The Race Is On.

Management 146

Management Media Economy Sales 146

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

But now we have a healthy economy, well-contained inflation, a Federal Reserve set to cut rates, improving productivity, record earnings, and stocks at all-time highs. What a ride it has been, but investors were once again rewarded for sticking to their investment plans. So, what now? Over those 15 weeks it gained 22%.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Investments 97

The Irrelevant Investor

FEBRUARY 5, 2020

Ned Davis investment research Fool's yield HFT earn $5 billion a year A really bad survey Charts Recommendations Rethinking financial education Parasite Snowpiercer The Squid and the Whale Tweets [link] [link] The post Animal Spirits: Do Economies Need to Bust? Why facts don't change minds Does personal finance sill work?

Economy 52

Economy Education Investments Investing 52

Bell Investment Advisors

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Comparing present day data with data from 2000 through 2019, we clearly see strength in the present. The broader economy surprises, too. With a seemingly unstoppable labor market and an economy that’s defied recession expectations, why have most financial markets declined since July? First, let’s discuss the U.S. labor market.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Numbers Investment Advisor 52

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. That is the best ‘worst day of the month’ since November 2019 and second best since February 2017! Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. million, which matches the 2019 average. Doers are optimists.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. Not much has changed, and we still feel this way.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 3, 2023

While we wait and see what happens, one thing we can be sure of is that our economy is going to receive a significant boost. India expects this World Cup to boost its economy by Rs. That’s more than three times the economic impact seen during the 2015 Australia-New Zealand edition and the 2019 UK World Cup, which were $347.2

Economy 59

Economy Sales Electronics Economics 59

Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

The higher the asset quality of banks, the better the state of the economy. Banks facilitate the flow of money in markets following monetary policy, which determines the economy’s growth and decline. Yes Bank invested in DHFL bonds despite concerns raised by the bank’s Treasury Department. 2019-20 ₹ 6,793.96 ₹ 6,012.05

Banking 104

Banking Planning Accounting Retail 104

Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friends.” From the end of 2019 through March 15, 2024, the S&P 500 has gained 71%. Keep in mind that even two cuts for an economy that’s running strong is a welcome tailwind for growth. That’s a big jump and acknowledgement that the economy is strong. to 2.1% (real GDP growth).

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Medicine 97

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Yes, this is just one signal and we would never suggest investing based on a single data point, but looked at in the context of all the bullish signals we continue to see, this further reinforces our overall bullish stance. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). in 2019, 5.9%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

The Big Picture

AUGUST 28, 2023

The pivot has accelerated a manufacturing revival and spurred investment that will reshape key parts of the economy. Wired ) • Consumers Are Spending Like It’s 2019 : Pandemic-driven binges recede as expenses mount and customers value experiences over goods. Wall Street Journal ) • First Ride: Damon Motors HyperSport.

Pharmaceutical 130

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Retirement Economy 130

Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 8, 2024

Industry Overview India has been the fastest-growing major economy in the last few years. During the year, India became the 5th largest economy in the world. In the previous three years, the industry has invested Rs. 2019 16062.46 The RBI, in its March 2023 projection, estimated India’s GDP to grow at 7% in FY 2023.

Planning 105

Planning Manufacturing Portfolio Government 105

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. With the economy on firm footing and sentiment turning pessimistic, we remain optimistic a significant year-end rally is still possible. The Energizer Bunny Economy You just can’t put this economy down. Despite the U.S.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Trade Brains

MARCH 3, 2024

The core sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, infrastructure, and building services, constantly require pumps, which facilitates the growing importance of the pump sector in the country. between 2023 and 2028, the Indian pump industry is a direct function of the progress of various sectors in the economy. 5-year average 10.96

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Planning Manufacturing Government Engineering 111