Remove 2008 Remove Economy Remove Numbers
article thumbnail

Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 235
article thumbnail

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. That’s not the case anymore. How do I know this? Wealth of Common Sense ). • Wealth of Common Sense ). •

Economy 306
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Tuesday links: accepting the risk of underperformance

Abnormal Returns

wsj.com) Don't fight the last war: this isn't 2008. theguardian.com) Economy The July Case-Shiller numbers shows a deceleration in home prices. (capitalspectator.com) Expected returns on bonds are finally attractive. awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets Lumber prices are back down to pre-pandemic levels. It depends.

article thumbnail

The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. The post- 2008-09 era saw wealth inequality, already substantial in the United States, explode. The FRED database shows both Quits Rate in percentage change and Job Openings in 1000s.

Medicine 331
article thumbnail

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The state of the economy on Election Day, explained in 6 numbers : Rising prices have weighed heavily on the minds of voters who will soon determine the outcome of elections across the country. ( In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting. Are TIPS a Bargain?

Nonprofit 278
article thumbnail

4th Quarter 2023 Economic And Market Outlook: Labor Market, Inflation, And Geopolitics

Nerd's Eye View

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

Economics 246
article thumbnail

At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut

The Big Picture

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. It’s a number that’s put out every Thursday for the previous week. That is, over the last 50 years, an extraordinarily low number. It’s a state program.

Numbers 288