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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Long Now Foundation ) The hardest-working font in Manhattan : In 2007, on my first trip to New York City, I grabbed a brand-new DSLR camera and photographed all the fonts I was supposed to love. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People : The highest-earning 10% of Americans have increased their spending far beyond inflation.

Math 162
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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?

The Big Picture

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. That was June; we now have a lot more data.

Economics 336
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At the Money: Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President on Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Big Picture

The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. So you got a number of positive supply shocks that are exactly what allowed for the immaculate disinflation, which the people who thought that was impossible use that phrase mockingly. I think number one.

Economy 162
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Recession Watch Update

Calculated Risk

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 363
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 336
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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Schroders ) • The Exact Age When You Make Your Best Financial Decisions There’s a magic number for when your expertise and cognitive powers align. economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis 7. Savings rates have rocketed and UK savers can earn over 5% on deposits.

Insurance 130
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Things Change

The Better Letter

GE jumped over Exxon to the top spot as the oil company (which had bought Mobil in 1998 in what was then the biggest merger ever) stayed at number two. Chevron, which had been known as Standard Oil of California, returned to the top ten at number eight. The broader economy matters. percent per annum, including dividends.

Retail 97