The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. Ask yourself this: Is 2024 more akin to 2007, or most other markets where new all-time highs were made? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investing 349

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2025

Job Streak Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Wealth Management

JUNE 1, 2023

Blackstone has brought its office holdings from 60% of its portfolion in 2007 down to 2% today, according to The Real Deal. REITs are seeking higher share prices by stepping up mergers and acquisitions, reported Bisnow. These are among today’s must reads for real estate investors.

277

277

Wealth Management

JUNE 27, 2023

Established in 2007, a private equity capital investment by Corsair Capital recently kicked off a new phase of growth for the firm.

Investing 262

Investing Investments 262

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 1, 2022

Events such as the tech/dotcom implosion, the double low in Oct 2002 and March 2003, the Great Financial Crisis in late 2007/early 2008, the lows in March 2009, and more recently, the 2020 pandemic. Genius bottom tick (2007-09): . Buying on the way down and on the way up (2007-09): .

Marketing 307

Marketing Marketing Investing Investments 307

Calculated Risk

MARCH 13, 2025

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. In Q4 2024, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 74.4% - down from 74.7% in Q3, 2024.

Nonprofit 162

Nonprofit Assets Accounting 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Job Streak Through January 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 49 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). This streak survived the annual benchmark revision.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2025

Job Streak Through April 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 52 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 28, 2023

million Total Housing Completions in 2022 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 • Has Housing "Bottomed"? At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • New Home Sales at 616,000 Annual Rate in December; Previous 3 Months Revised Down Sharply • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December • 1.51

Sales 264

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 264

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 18, 2023

morningstar.com) The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is at its highest level since 2007. (thereformedbroker.com) Five common portfolio mistakes including 'portfolio sprawl.' capitalspectator.com) Fund fees really do matter. bilello.blog) Focus on the role bonds play in your portfolio.

Portfolio 274

Portfolio Investing Investments Marketing 274

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2024

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. In Q2 2024, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 74.9% - up from 74.2% in Q1, 2024.

Nonprofit 332

Nonprofit Assets Accounting 332

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 10% year-over-year in Q2 - from a very low level. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q2 and was up 5.7% year-over-year. Still declining as a percent of GDP).

Commission 363

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 9, 2022

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. In Q2 2022, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 70.5% - up from 70.1% in Q1, 2022.

Nonprofit 363

Nonprofit Assets Accounting 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. In Q3 2022, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 70.5% - unchanged from 70.5% in Q2, 2022.

Nonprofit 360

Nonprofit Assets Accounting 360

Calculated Risk

APRIL 25, 2024

Births peaked in 2007 and have generally declined since then. The birth rate for teenagers ages 15–19 declined by 3% in 2023 to 13.2 births per 1,000 females ; the rate for younger teenagers (ages 15–17) was unchanged, and the rate for older teenagers (ages 18–19) declined 3%. T emphasis added Here is a long-term graph of annual U.S.

Numbers 298

Numbers 298

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time.

Communication 299

Communication Startup Management Economics 299

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 24, 2022

If correct, this would be the same level of completions as in 2007. My current estimate is total completions (single family, multi-family, manufactured homes) will increase about 10% in 2022 to almost 1.6 There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at [link]

Manufacturing 264

Manufacturing 264

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2022

This will be close to the same level of completions as in 2007. My current estimate is total completions (single family, multi-family, manufactured homes) will increase about 6% in 2022 to over 1.5

Manufacturing 246

Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Job Streak Through February 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 50 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Job growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong. The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

JANUARY 26, 2023

August 10, 2007) What is your Value Add ? April 12, 2018) The post How to Avoid Financial Disasters appeared first on The Big Picture.

Accounting 298

Accounting Portfolio Investments Investing 298

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2023

He founded Wall Strip (sold to CBS in 2007), co-founded StockTwits (which pioneered the ‘cashtag’ e.g., $AAPL), and was the first investor in Robin Hood. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with venture capitalist and seed investor Howard Lindzon. Social Leverage recently launched its 4th fund.

Wealth Management 304

Wealth Management Assets Management Clients 304

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2023

in 2007 and has fallen to under 10% now., The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year in Q3 even with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums and are historically low. The Household debt service ratio was at 13.2% and the DSR for mortgages (blue) are near the lowest level for the last 35 years.

Economics 328

Economics 328

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. In Q2 2023, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 71.1% - up from 70.0% in Q1, 2023.

Nonprofit 314

Nonprofit Assets Accounting 314

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

Unemployment is low, job openings are still high, and what looks salaries are still rising. ~~~ I have a very vivid recollection of massive firings during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Last, the Labor market remains very robust. As the chart above shows, Unemployment spiked to 10%, layoffs were ubiquitous.

Numbers 326

Numbers Economics Planning Investments 326

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2024

Fast-forward to 2024, and this cycle he hasn’t been as concerned as he was in 2007.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 173

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 29, 2024

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 8% year-over-year in Q4. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q4 and was up 5.0% year-over-year. And mostly unchanged as a percent of GDP. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.

Commission 289

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 289

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 24, 2022

in 2007 and has fallen to under 10% now., The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year in Q3 with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums. The Household debt service ratio was at 13.2% and the DSR for mortgages (blue) are near the lowest level for the last 35 years.

Economics 306

Economics 306

Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 1% year-over-year in Q1. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q1 and was up 4.1% year-over-year. And declined slightly as a percent of GDP.

Commission 278

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 278

Fortune Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Let’s first look at the data: From 1959 through 2007, housing starts for single family homes in the U.S. These factors combine to make for an interesting setup for all sorts of housing-related construction and services as the housing market works to find an equilibrium. averaged more than 1.1 million per year.

Financial Advisor 96

Financial Advisor Retirement Clients Marketing 96

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

Job Streak Through May 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 41 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 204

Sales Economics 204

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 19, 2023

The beginning of the banking and commercial real estate crisis this year has many parallels to the start of the residential real estate crisis in 2007.

Banking 52

Banking 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

Despite what you may have heard, the Fed isn’t the only factor driving equity markets.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2024

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year Ended Streak, Months 1 2020 113 2 1990 48 3 2007 46 4 1979 45 5 2024 1 40 6 tie 1943 33 6 tie 1986 33 6 tie 2000 33 9 1967 29 10 1995 25 1 Currrent Streak Although job growth has slowed recently, we might see job growth every month during the current term.

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173

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 200

Sales Economics 200

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year Ended Streak, Months 1 2019 100 2 1990 48 3 2007 46 4 1979 45 5 2024 1 43 6 tie 1943 33 6 tie 1986 33 6 tie 2000 33 9 1967 29 10 1995 25 1 Currrent Streak Summary: The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319